by gkhd11a » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:15 pm
From a runs standpoint in a divisional competition, which is all that matters, does it actually make sense to accept the deal?
What does accepting Alexander do for our unknown protagonist? Lower the ERA of one starting pitcher about 1.00. Assuming 270 innings that results in 30 runs saved.
The loss of Wells, who leads all shortstops in runs created at 122 in 200 million leagues per Diamond dope or .75 runs per game will I assume be replaced with a player around 61 or so RC per game so the difference will be .37 in every game he plays. Estimate 9 games for Wagner and 9 games for Hack as DH and you have 7 runs lost minimum resulting in an expected net improvement to the team of 23 runs. A good trade, but certainly not great. This is a conservative estimate as any possible pinch hitting lost as well is not included.
Now take the champion's side I estimate a loss of .6 off his ERA from Alexander's departure as he already has better studs to still pitch resulting in 18 runs more given up by his pitchers. The arrival of Wells will result in an estimated 57 more runs of offense for his team for the shortstop improvement, netting a total improvement of 34 runs.
The 11 run difference created by the trade translates to a 2 game expected advantage. As I would feel no need to make my biggest threat better I would not accept the trade either.