wild pitche(r)s and question

[hotcorner4444]

Some of you have seen this, but I thought it would
be worth sharing with you all.


SUBSTITUTE P - Gene Brabender
0 12 E.Combs 6-4 Walk 2-3 1-2 b-1 F9
0 123 L.Mazzilli Wild Pitch 3-H 2-3 1-2 F9
0 23 L.Mazzilli Wild Pitch 3-H 2-3 F9
0 3 L.Mazzilli Wild Pitch 3-H F9
0 L.Mazzilli 1-9 Strike Out b-0 F9
1 P.Guerrero 3-10 Single (CF)b-1 bpSI 1-12 F9
1 1 A.Belle Wild Pitch 1-2 F9
SUBSTITUTE P - Pete Richert

I realize that Brabender is a WP 20, but I think
this is a bit of an extreme AB for Mazzilli,
considering that after going 3-0 on wild pitches
he managed to strike out. Unfortunately, this was
only part of a very bad inning for me.


BTW: Mazzilli is not credited with RBIs because he did
not actually cause them to score.

My question is, what is the mechanism that determines a wild pitch?

[emart]

I can't answer your question, but I've been seeing some unusual wild pitch results myself in the past few weeks. On more than one occasion I've seen back-to-back wild pitches, or a WP and a balk back-to-back. Seems highly suspicious to me.

[andycummings65]

I think you ended up with the 2000 Rick Ankiel card by mistake

[jfreeman]

If I understand the rules correctly, prior to every pitch (with a runner on base), a 20-sided die is rolled. If it's a 1 or 2, then there's a chance for either a balk (#1) or wild pitch/passed ball (#2). If #2 appears, a 6-sided die is rolled to determine if it's a wild pitch (1-3)or passed ball (4-6). Once determined, the 20-sided die is re-rolled to determine if the wp takes place. Since your pitcher has a wp =20, then every time the 20-sided comes up a 2 (1-3), then it's an automatic wild pitch (if your pitcher had 1 wild pitch, for instance, then you'd only have a wild pitch if you rolled first a 2 (on the 20-sided), then a 1-3 on a 6-sided, and then a 1 on the 20-sided).

Your results indicate that a 2 was rolled on a 20-sided 3x in a row and, each time it was rolled, a 6-sided die roll resulted in a 1-3. In the case of that pitcher, it is an automatic wp.

[hotcorner4444]

Thanks for the info on that. -- It's been so long since I played the board game that I have totally lost track of such dice roll things. While the odds are amazingly against such things happening -- there it is.

At least Rick Ankiel spread his 5 WP in an inning out over 4 different batters.

[Mean Dean]

Rolling a 1 on the 20-sided die is always a wild pitch chance; rolling a 2 is the one that is split between a 50% chance of a balk and a 50% chance of a passed ball. So the odds of three straight wild pitches would be twice what [b:5db265a779]Brooklyn Bombers[/b:5db265a779] described, namely, 1 in 8,000.

(CATCH-X can also result in a WP, but I assume that would be marked as such in the recap. Not sure, though?)

[rburgh]

I agree with Dean on all counts.

1. The chance of 3 straight WP with an * baserunner on base is 1 in 8000.

2. It's possible to get a WP off the catcher X-chart. When that happens, the game recap should tell you.

3. The game checks for a possible WP/PB/Bk once for every baserunner that will attempt to steal when held; usually those with an * rating.

If the baserunner did not get a good lead, and does not advance a base as a result of the efforts of the current batter, then there will be no further checks for a WP/PB/Bk.

This SB simulation is by far the best of the games that I know of, but it's far from perfect.

As to the 1 in 8000 event actually happening, it was bound to happen sooner or later. There are 22 pitchers with a WP-20 rating, including quality cards such as Trevor Hoffman, the lesser Bruce Sutter card, Norm Charlton, Kenny Rogers, the 5-day starter reliever card for Len Barker, tough lefty starter-reliever Frank Bertaina, Sparky Lyle's Red Sox card, and the little John Franco card.

Hot corner, it was just your turn to be hit by the Strat freak event curse.

[hotcorner4444]

Thanks for all the input on the math. The simple retired English teacher here only figures out such things as spelling and punctuation.

Now if I could only get the New York State lottery to get on board with a freak occurrence on my behalf ...