Pujols to the Angels

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:6180572332="Valen"]Resigning with St. Louis would have done nothing to show there was something more important than money. It just would have made fans in St. Louis happy. Instead he made LA fans happy.[/quote:6180572332]

Up until about ten years ago, Angels fans were fictional. Or they came to games dressed as empty seats. Strange custom.

[alvarndc]

Not to get too off the topic, but here is an. Interesting video about the value of $100 million.

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=3dl1y-zBAFg

[Mr Baseball World]

Prediction of the day:

The Angels will regret this signing way sooner than anyone so far has suggested. Albert in 2011 had career lows in doubles, RBI, walks, total bases, OBP, Slugging %, OPS and batting average. Also grounded into more double plays than in any season previously. He dropped roughly 100 points on OPS each of the last two seasons. I realize the numbers are still good but not 25 mill a year for the next 10 years good. I expect another decline this year though probably not as steep.

[ozziesmith]

[quote:e8c5039fcc="Mr. Baseball World"]Prediction of the day:

The Angels will regret this signing way sooner than anyone so far has suggested. Albert in 2011 had career lows in doubles, RBI, walks, total bases, OBP, Slugging %, OPS and batting average. Also grounded into more double plays than in any season previously. He dropped roughly 100 points on OPS each of the last two seasons. I realize the numbers are still good but not 25 mill a year for the next 10 years good. I expect another decline this year though probably not as steep.[/quote:e8c5039fcc]

If your prediction turns out to be accurate, both Pujols and the Cardinals would have made a wise decision then. Even the Angels don't lose in that scenario as they have already paid for Pujols contract with the tv deal they just signed.

[Valen]

[quote:55aa00bdd3]The Angels will regret this signing way sooner than anyone so far has suggested. [/quote:55aa00bdd3]
Cut through all the issues discussed so far and as a Ranger fan I do hope you are 100% correct. :lol:

[Valen]

This was an interesting and sometimes for some an emotional discussion.

One aspect that is interesting to me is how the Pujols situation highlights the game within the game. What happens on the field after the ump says play ball is what should really matter the most.

But long before anyone steps on the field a possibly more important competition unfolds. Like a game of chess or maybe chinese checkers the various teams make their moves and follow their strategy.

Is Pujols worth 250 mil for 10 years. Cards thought no. Angels thought yes. Bot teams no doubt held meetings and discussed the merits and probably talked about everything we have discussed here. Difference is we are just talking for fun. They have to make the hard decisions for real.

If Albert remains dominant for 3/4 of that contract they will be winners. If it turns out he really is older than he says and only has a couple more dominant years left then the deal will hurt. Imagine being the guy who had to make that decision for real.

CJ Wilson is another good example. Rangers were unwilling to give him 5 years. Angels looked at the same situation and pulled the trigger. Rangers could have kept CJ easily by applying the money they bid for Yu Darvish and will have to pay him directly to CJ and had millions left over. They made the decision that putting more money in to a Darvish gamble was a better baseball move than keeping CJ in the fold. Were they right or wrong. Either way a lot of money spent. What happens on the field will determine if they were smart deserve to wear the dunce cap.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:0226c90454="Valen"][quote:0226c90454]The Angels will regret this signing way sooner than anyone so far has suggested. [/quote:0226c90454]
Cut through all the issues discussed so far and as a Ranger fan I do hope you are 100% correct. :lol:[/quote:0226c90454]

On the other hand, as a Rangers fan, you will be long term unhappy with Darvish.

[Valen]

You are right. They have barely begun negotiations much less agreed on a contract and thrown a pitch and I am already nervous. I cannot begin to imagine what it would be like if it was my money on the line.

But should be noted the Darvish thing probably has little to do with the Rangers new tv contract. Last year the ownership stepped up and volunteered the money to go after Lee and stipulated the money would be separate from club books. In other words straight out of their pockets. I suspect this posting money for Darvish was similar. Straight from their checkbooks.

But where did their money come from. One of the owners is a country music singer. He made enough from singing to afford a baseball team and toss up this kind of independent money to chase a championship singing but who ever complained about how much he got for a concert tour, etc. We howl about what an athlete earns and barely notice when other entertainers make huge money.

If the Darvish thing works out and puts the Rangers over the top this year I will have to give a big shout of thanks to all the country music fans for making it possible by paying hundreds for concert tickets without complaint. :D

[MrHacktastic]

Look at the A-Rod resigning already. A-Rod isn't a bad player yet but he is fading. Pujols has 5 good years left and none of those 5 are going to be career years just good years. After that he could be anything from a DH to an injury riddled washed up star. Those last 5 years will be brutal to Anaheim. I also think Wilson is overrated.

Texas was ballsy to go after Darvish but I really think Darvish is an exception to the Japanese pitcher rules. First of all he is only half japanese. Secondly he is 6'5" power pitcher, and thirdly he has a very normal delivery and the ability to pitch downhill. He also only features three pitches not 27 like Dice-K's gimmicky stuff. No Gyro's or inverted knucklescrewballs. Darvish's numbers last year are inflated by the ball they switched to in Japan but his numbers the years before that were still scary good. I say Darvish finishes in the top five in Cy Young this year. You can hold me to that as well.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:6c1e20e22a="Hackdog99"]Texas was ballsy to go after Darvish but I really think Darvish is an exception to the Japanese pitcher rules. First of all he is only half japanese. Secondly he is 6'5" power pitcher, and thirdly he has a very normal delivery and the ability to pitch downhill. He also only features three pitches not 27 like Dice-K's gimmicky stuff. No Gyro's or inverted knucklescrewballs. Darvish's numbers last year are inflated by the ball they switched to in Japan but his numbers the years before that were still scary good. I say Darvish finishes in the top five in Cy Young this year. You can hold me to that as well.[/quote:6c1e20e22a]

Couple issues here.
I believe that Darvish will be very good in his first season.
1- Assuming they pay him the same amount total contract as they bid for him, that's 100M+ in one guy. Assuming a five year contract (YIKES), that's $20M a year. I believe Fielder could be had for that and change, which would improve Texas every day. Way more than the Nats are paying Stasburg. Would have to produce ~6 wins over replacement to justify that.
2- He does not feature three pitches. He features two pitches (4seam + Slurve) and FIVE secondary pitches, according to the scouting I've read. The belief is that his team will eliminate the fringier stuff.
Four seamer (92-97)
Slurve (80)
Shuuto/2 seamer
Cutter
Curve
Splitter
Change

I'm not saying he's Dice-K, but MLB batters solve pitchers a lot faster than NPB hitters do.

6 WAR/year for 5 years is a steep hill.