Sure-fire Hall of Famers

[PotKettleBlack]

Rabid: In the context of the post, I was looking at it like those 2-5% of voters who leave no doubt guys off their ballots, so they can be interviewed, or have something to talk about at cocktail parties, or whatever. I am a firm believer in Maddux's dominance. But those 2-5% guys will complain about relative velocity, fielding behind him, some meh style aging, or whatever they can to leave him off the first ballot. They are *****. I say that freely. But, if the question is about unanimity, you have to look at it like an outlying dick. So, I don't think it's Maddux, even though you cannot argue with 4 Cys, way over 300 wins (in a 5 man rotation era), gold gloves, and general cache. If Maddux had had his longevity but threw like Pedro, that would be your first ballot, 100% guy. But that wasn't the case.

Update:
Apparently I can't call them ***** that freely.

[Munich_Man]

But I can call them ässholes!

The benefits of having a German keyboard... :D

[durantjerry]

If Bench didn't get more than 98.8%, maybe none of them can. I mean, he is arguably the greatest Catcher ever to lace up spikes. Offense, defense, power, championships, all-star, mvp, playoff MVP, he developed the one handed catching style, etc., etc. If not the greatest, I bet not many of the voters were around when anyone better played.

[artie4121]

Teddy Ballgame 93.4%
Mays 94.7%,
Aaron 97.8%

but

[b:1e005af22e][i:1e005af22e]Ripken[/i:1e005af22e][/b:1e005af22e] 98.5% ???????

Seriously? Have these voters been given an EEG?

[216 Stitches]

I think HOF voting %, when its > 90% of the vote, has no
further significance. Its not BA or OBP or SLG. Its an opinion %
with a small number of nay sayers.

They will all probably be first ballot hall of famers. Maddux, Jeter
and Albert will get the highest % of votes in the first year they
are on the ballot, and Rivera will probably too, unless its the same
year as Jeter or Albert.

[supertyphoon]

In retrospect, I should have included Jeter among the choices as well. There's no doubt he'll be a first-ballot HOF, but while my impression of him has always been he's a consistent winner, was he ever the very best SS in the game at any given time?

At the start of his career ARod was better, the middle of his career Tejada was better, and at the end of his career Ramirez and Tulowitzki were better.

[RICHARDMILTER]

[quote:2d67b6da4e]Teddy Ballgame 93.4%
Mays 94.7%,
Aaron 97.8%

but

Ripken 98.5% ???????

Seriously? Have these voters been given an EEG? [/quote:2d67b6da4e]

Amen! Are these guys retarded, or what?

There are a lot of guys who should be in the Hall of Fame who are not. How can Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin not be in the Hall of Fame? Both were far better shortstops than Cal Ripken .

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:7916e5523b="rmilter"][quote:7916e5523b]Teddy Ballgame 93.4%
Mays 94.7%,
Aaron 97.8%

but

Ripken 98.5% ???????

Seriously? Have these voters been given an EEG? [/quote:7916e5523b]

Amen! Are these guys retarded, or what?

There are a lot of guys who should be in the Hall of Fame who are not. How can Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin not be in the Hall of Fame? Both were far better shortstops than Cal Ripken .[/quote:7916e5523b]

Neither one of them had Ripken's bat or his durability.

Ripken was something else. An iron man, a class act, the face of ball, and a big man playing SS in an era of little glove men. Not the best defensively, but I'll take his bat with his glove...

[Outta Leftfield]

[quote:7245f2c7d1="Artie412"]Teddy Ballgame 93.4%
Mays 94.7%,
Aaron 97.8%

but

[b:7245f2c7d1][i:7245f2c7d1]Ripken[/i:7245f2c7d1][/b:7245f2c7d1] 98.5% ???????

Seriously? Have these voters been given an EEG?[/quote:7245f2c7d1]

The thing is that historically, there used to be strong resistance among [i:7245f2c7d1]many[/i:7245f2c7d1] BBWAA voters to putting in a player on the first ballot.

Let's look at some undoubted HOFers, noting the historical progression. Paul Waner got only 2% of the vote on his first try in 1946, finally getting in on his 6th try in 1952. One way to understand this is that in 1946, more than 30 eventual HOFs got votes ahead of Waner. There was no voting between 1940 and 1944, and many early greats had yet to be honored. As of 1945, there were only 28 HOFers (many of them managers or exectives—17 in as players) so one can understand why Waner had to wait his turn. This might explain how the bias against first ballot election got started.

Similarly, starting in 1946, Jimmy Foxx had to wait [i:7245f2c7d1]6 years[/i:7245f2c7d1], getting only 13% on the first try. He finally achieved election in 1951 with 79%. I think there was an attitude of "Don't Worry, Jimmy. You've just got to wait your turn. Frank Chance, Ed Walsh, plus Hubbell, Grove, Frisch, Cochrane, Traynor, Gehringer, etc., are ahead of you in line, but we'll get you in there." Mel Ott had to wait 3 years, getting in with Foxx in 1951 with 87%. Since there was no official 5 year waiting period at that time--you hit the ballot as soon as you retired— that may have reinforced the sense that players should have to wait until their elders to be elected.

By the mid-1950s, the backlog of potential electees had started to clear and a 5 year waiting period had been mandated for all candidates, but even for a super-great, some felt that a waiting period was required. Dimaggio had to wait a year, getting 69% on the first try in 1954, then 89% on the 2nd try. Yogi missed it on the first ballot in 1971 with 67%, getting 86% on his second try. Viewed in that context, Ted Williams getting 93.4% on the first ballot in 1966 was an awesome performance. First ballot election was still a bit of a feat. Eight years later, in 1974, Mickey Mantle made it on the first ballot with 88.2%, but the great Whitey Ford had to wait a year (67.1%), getting in with Mickey in '74 on his second try. Warren Spahn beat out Whitey in '73, getting in on the first ballot with 83.2%.

Some of the old-time writers, I think, were still hanging on for the election of Spahn, Ford and Mantle in the mid-1970s, and tiny handful of them were still around for Mays (1979) and Aaron (1982). Remeber, Dimag had to wait a year in the mid-1950s, and 25 or so years later, some of those BBWAA voters were still on the rolls.

But in more recent years, first ballot election has not only become normal for great players but has turned into a focus of intense interest and anticipation, while the historical causes for resistance to first ballot election have been more or less erased. Fans and some writers can't wait to see a player like Ripken, Maddux or Rivera elected, and speculation on what percentage of votes they will get actually predates their retirement.

Anyway, in historical contex the performance of Teddy or Willie is more impressive than that of Seaver or Ripken. It's hard to question Cal's worthiness, but if Teddy or Willy had come up in recent years, they might well have surpassed Seaver in percentage.

[supertyphoon]

Thanks for the history lesson O-LF. I never knew that about Waner. Under today's rules he would've been one-and-done for not getting at least 5% of the vote.