Raines
Smith
Morris
Larkin
Trammell
Murphy
Raines was an awesome player for a long, long time.
Lee Smith gets no love for his exemplary career as an old school and new school closer
Morris was a horse with rings and THE clutch World Series performance of his era (during a GREAT WS).
Larkin, Tramm and Murph were all great all-around performers. Murphy's career arcs drastically in the middle then falls, but so do a ton of other HoF'ers. And Murph has to rate at least as good as Hawk, albeit without the rate stats.
2012 Hall of Fame class - who would YOU vote for?
by TRW » Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:45 pm
I have to break this down into 3 groups:
1 - The [u:a43842d4c3]most-likely[/u:a43842d4c3] to get into the HOF:
McGriff, L Smith, Bagwell, McGwire & Palmiero (though the last 2 may get black-listed due to steroids.)
2- The [u:a43842d4c3]probablies (or eventualies[/u:a43842d4c3]) These guys will probably get in at some point in the coming years:
Larkin, Trammell, Raines, Martinez, J Morris
3- The[u:a43842d4c3] Kirby Pucketts[/u:a43842d4c3] (very good players whose careers were a few seasons short of HOF careers, but may get in if the voters smoke weed before casting their ballots):
Mattingly, D Murphy, T Salmon, L Walker, B Williams
1 - The [u:a43842d4c3]most-likely[/u:a43842d4c3] to get into the HOF:
McGriff, L Smith, Bagwell, McGwire & Palmiero (though the last 2 may get black-listed due to steroids.)
2- The [u:a43842d4c3]probablies (or eventualies[/u:a43842d4c3]) These guys will probably get in at some point in the coming years:
Larkin, Trammell, Raines, Martinez, J Morris
3- The[u:a43842d4c3] Kirby Pucketts[/u:a43842d4c3] (very good players whose careers were a few seasons short of HOF careers, but may get in if the voters smoke weed before casting their ballots):
Mattingly, D Murphy, T Salmon, L Walker, B Williams
Last edited by TRW on Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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by Outta Leftfield » Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:43 pm
I'm approaching the from the standpoint of "If I had the vote this year, who would I vote for?" Alphabetically, I'd vote for:
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Barry Larkin, SS
Edgar Martinez, 3B/DH
Tim Raines, OF
Lee Smith, RHP
Alan Trammell, SS
Larry Walker, OF
Bernie Williams, OF *
I think, if I was in the BBWAA, I would eventually vote for McGwire, but I think he needs to wait for a while. I'm not so sure about whether I'd eventually vote for Palmiero. The steroid thing really creates a murky situation.
Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, Raines and Trammell all seem to me clearly deserving. Martinez was a career DH, but he was also a heckuva hitter.
I wasn't expecting to vote for Lee Smith, but when I looked closely at his numbers (esp Saves and ERA+), he really holds his own with Gossage, Sutter, Fingers, and Eck. BTW, I would rank Hoyt Wilhelm tops among the relievers now in the HOF. Smith's not on the Mo Rivera level, but then, who else is?
Same with Larry Walker. I resisted voting for him, partly because of the Coors effect. But studying his record changed my mind. His offensive numbers even adjusting for Coors are very impressive, and he was also outstanding defensively.
What about Bernie Williams? He's not an overwhelming HOF candidate, but a solid one. He's was a better player than many now in the Hall. In his prime from 1995-2002, he was an outstanding CF--great bat, great defense-- and his teams made the playoffs every one of those years, winning four world championships. In many of those years, he was the best position player on a great team. Bernie actually makes a nice comparison with Ron Santo. Both had career OPS+ of exactly 125. Their career lengths were similar. Both were excellent defensively, and earned four Gold Gloves. Bernie's edge is that his teams won so many championships. Will Bernie eventually make the Hall? I think he has a decent chance, but he may have to wait as long as Santo did in order to do it. Anyway, he has my vote.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Barry Larkin, SS
Edgar Martinez, 3B/DH
Tim Raines, OF
Lee Smith, RHP
Alan Trammell, SS
Larry Walker, OF
Bernie Williams, OF *
I think, if I was in the BBWAA, I would eventually vote for McGwire, but I think he needs to wait for a while. I'm not so sure about whether I'd eventually vote for Palmiero. The steroid thing really creates a murky situation.
Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, Raines and Trammell all seem to me clearly deserving. Martinez was a career DH, but he was also a heckuva hitter.
I wasn't expecting to vote for Lee Smith, but when I looked closely at his numbers (esp Saves and ERA+), he really holds his own with Gossage, Sutter, Fingers, and Eck. BTW, I would rank Hoyt Wilhelm tops among the relievers now in the HOF. Smith's not on the Mo Rivera level, but then, who else is?
Same with Larry Walker. I resisted voting for him, partly because of the Coors effect. But studying his record changed my mind. His offensive numbers even adjusting for Coors are very impressive, and he was also outstanding defensively.
What about Bernie Williams? He's not an overwhelming HOF candidate, but a solid one. He's was a better player than many now in the Hall. In his prime from 1995-2002, he was an outstanding CF--great bat, great defense-- and his teams made the playoffs every one of those years, winning four world championships. In many of those years, he was the best position player on a great team. Bernie actually makes a nice comparison with Ron Santo. Both had career OPS+ of exactly 125. Their career lengths were similar. Both were excellent defensively, and earned four Gold Gloves. Bernie's edge is that his teams won so many championships. Will Bernie eventually make the Hall? I think he has a decent chance, but he may have to wait as long as Santo did in order to do it. Anyway, he has my vote.
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by docdave » Wed Dec 21, 2011 3:29 am
Raines, Bagwell and Trammell are the only three who don't come with a yeah, but...
Bagwell isn't tainted. Palmeiro GOT CAUGHT JUICING. TWICE. McGwire did everything but take the fifth on the subject. Bonds may still face indictment for perjury over his PED denials. Rumors swirled thick and nasty around Sosa for years, plus his body went from skinny to Canseco in about four seasons. Bagwell rates as the top N.L. first sacker of all time - him or McCovey, and I'd take Jeff. As for 'roids, well, every 90s player gets hung with the juice label, fairly or not, and I choose to be skeptical unless it's pretty obvious.
Raines is a stupid oversight. The current HoFer he most directly resembles is Lou Brock, and I'd rather have Raines. Brock frequently froze and got a late break on liners. Raines' OF instincts were better. But Brock managed to hang around long enough to get 3000 hits and break Cobb's career SB mark with three seasons that were honestly nothing special. Raines got sick (lupus) and spent some time as a #4 OFer / DH with the Yanks, and this cost him a shot at 3000 hits. He should be in now.
Trammell should already be in, too, but was hurt by being a direct contemporary of Ripken, Yount and Ozzie Smith, and by A-Rod and Jeter coming along so soon after he retired. If he had played from 1935-55, say, he would have been the best SS of his era, by far. He ranks high enough all-time at the position to merit the Hall.
Larkin, as an all around player was sensational, yeah, but... for 125 games a year. I think he still gets in.
Edgar was a great low ball hitter, yeah, but benefited from the disappearance of the high heater, plus he was mostly a DH. On the other hand should we penalize him because the idiots running the Mariners thought for three years that Jim Presley was their best option at third? I'd still vote for him, but he's a 'high' borderline case.
Bernie Williams is the only first year player with an argument for the Hall. Bernie had a nice package of talent, but I always thought he was very overrated as a defensive player. His instincts were poor and he often had to change his track to the ball in mid-flight. His arm was poor. He had the speed to make up for some of his shortcomings, but he was never a grade A CFer. He reminded me a lot more of Ron Leflore than Andre Dawson. He won the Gold Glove with his bat. His best argument is that he was the best AL CFer, all-around, for about 6-7 years at his peak. I'd say he ranks as another 'high' borderline case.
Larry Walker was a tremendous talent, yeah, but he gets dinged for playing in Denver and for time missed to injuries. His numbers were great in Montreal and would have been impressive anywhere, but they'd be a lot closer to Paul O'Neill's than Babe Ruth's. Denver made them eye-popping, as the Baker Bowl did with Klein, plus the competition is stiff in RF. Dewey, Parker, Oliva, Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith et al. are still on the outside looking in. Is Walker enough better than any of them to slide in easily ahead of the throw? I'm not convinced of this. 'Middle' borderline.
Jack Morris is another borderline case. His ERAs are unimpressive, but he could throw 260 innings a year, year after year, without blowing up, and this cannot be undervalued. Contemps of his who looked to be on a faster HoF track (Hershiser, Valenzuela, Viola, Steib, others) failed to last as long or pitch as much. Morris anchored good pitching staffs for years and has a nice career won-lost total. He has a stronger argument than 2/3 of the list. Also 'middle' borderline.
McGriff has a lot to sell as a player except superstar seasons. He had one of those Harold Baines / Rusty Staub careers, long and productive with nice numbers at the end thanks to being consistently good and very durable, but was he ever a star? For a year or two maybe, but not for the 4-5 years it usually takes to establish real Hall cred. I like McGriff better than Staub or Baines, but I'm not sure I like him better than Will Clark, who becomes eligible soon. 'Low' borderline, at best.
Lee Smith is tough call, given their small number and the lack of a consistent definition of a Hof closer. Eck, and Gossage had weird career tracks, with only half of their careers spent closing. Fingers pitched more in his best years than Lee did in his, but Lee's arm lasted longer than Sutter's. None of those guys, including Lee, had the career value at the closer position of a Mo Rivera or a Hoyt Wilhelm. Very borderline.
And speaking of weird career tracks, we come finally to McGwire. My main problem with him is not that he juiced, but that at mid-career he didn't look anything remotely like a HoFer. Through 1994, you have a guy who won rookie of the year, then got 10% worse every year for 4 years until one good year (1992) halted a career-threatening slide. Then injuries wiped out the next two years. He came back partway into 1995 and stayed healthy for five years, putting up huge numbers thanks to a tiny strike zone, depleted pitching quality and 'roids. If you compare him to the mid-rank HoFer he most closely resembles (Harmon Killebrew), McGwire falls well short on issues of consistency and durability. Borderline, at best.
Mattingly was a superstar, yeah, but... after he hurt his back he was merely good, like Grace or Joyner, and this covered almost 2/3 of his career. I'd have trouble voting for a guy who was great for five years at a position as strong as first. There were a lot of guys who kicked butt for five years. Kluzewski, eg. I don't see it. 'Low' borderline is generous.
Dale Murphy started out as an MVP type, yeah, but basically stopped hitting good righty fastballs after age 29. Five years of hitting .220 and then only thanks to a 20-25% diet of lefty junkballers during what should have been productive years does not a HoFer make. Sorry, Dale, but you're below the line.
Without the juice, Palmeiro is another Mark Grace / Wally Joiner type. He can wait until we decide about Will Clark and McGwire, both of whom have better star credentials. Get used to waiting, Raffy.
I don't see anybody else as having a real case for the Hall beyond these.
My Ballot would read:
1. Raines
2. Bagwell
3. Trammell
4. Larkin
5. Edgar
...and stop there.
Bagwell isn't tainted. Palmeiro GOT CAUGHT JUICING. TWICE. McGwire did everything but take the fifth on the subject. Bonds may still face indictment for perjury over his PED denials. Rumors swirled thick and nasty around Sosa for years, plus his body went from skinny to Canseco in about four seasons. Bagwell rates as the top N.L. first sacker of all time - him or McCovey, and I'd take Jeff. As for 'roids, well, every 90s player gets hung with the juice label, fairly or not, and I choose to be skeptical unless it's pretty obvious.
Raines is a stupid oversight. The current HoFer he most directly resembles is Lou Brock, and I'd rather have Raines. Brock frequently froze and got a late break on liners. Raines' OF instincts were better. But Brock managed to hang around long enough to get 3000 hits and break Cobb's career SB mark with three seasons that were honestly nothing special. Raines got sick (lupus) and spent some time as a #4 OFer / DH with the Yanks, and this cost him a shot at 3000 hits. He should be in now.
Trammell should already be in, too, but was hurt by being a direct contemporary of Ripken, Yount and Ozzie Smith, and by A-Rod and Jeter coming along so soon after he retired. If he had played from 1935-55, say, he would have been the best SS of his era, by far. He ranks high enough all-time at the position to merit the Hall.
Larkin, as an all around player was sensational, yeah, but... for 125 games a year. I think he still gets in.
Edgar was a great low ball hitter, yeah, but benefited from the disappearance of the high heater, plus he was mostly a DH. On the other hand should we penalize him because the idiots running the Mariners thought for three years that Jim Presley was their best option at third? I'd still vote for him, but he's a 'high' borderline case.
Bernie Williams is the only first year player with an argument for the Hall. Bernie had a nice package of talent, but I always thought he was very overrated as a defensive player. His instincts were poor and he often had to change his track to the ball in mid-flight. His arm was poor. He had the speed to make up for some of his shortcomings, but he was never a grade A CFer. He reminded me a lot more of Ron Leflore than Andre Dawson. He won the Gold Glove with his bat. His best argument is that he was the best AL CFer, all-around, for about 6-7 years at his peak. I'd say he ranks as another 'high' borderline case.
Larry Walker was a tremendous talent, yeah, but he gets dinged for playing in Denver and for time missed to injuries. His numbers were great in Montreal and would have been impressive anywhere, but they'd be a lot closer to Paul O'Neill's than Babe Ruth's. Denver made them eye-popping, as the Baker Bowl did with Klein, plus the competition is stiff in RF. Dewey, Parker, Oliva, Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith et al. are still on the outside looking in. Is Walker enough better than any of them to slide in easily ahead of the throw? I'm not convinced of this. 'Middle' borderline.
Jack Morris is another borderline case. His ERAs are unimpressive, but he could throw 260 innings a year, year after year, without blowing up, and this cannot be undervalued. Contemps of his who looked to be on a faster HoF track (Hershiser, Valenzuela, Viola, Steib, others) failed to last as long or pitch as much. Morris anchored good pitching staffs for years and has a nice career won-lost total. He has a stronger argument than 2/3 of the list. Also 'middle' borderline.
McGriff has a lot to sell as a player except superstar seasons. He had one of those Harold Baines / Rusty Staub careers, long and productive with nice numbers at the end thanks to being consistently good and very durable, but was he ever a star? For a year or two maybe, but not for the 4-5 years it usually takes to establish real Hall cred. I like McGriff better than Staub or Baines, but I'm not sure I like him better than Will Clark, who becomes eligible soon. 'Low' borderline, at best.
Lee Smith is tough call, given their small number and the lack of a consistent definition of a Hof closer. Eck, and Gossage had weird career tracks, with only half of their careers spent closing. Fingers pitched more in his best years than Lee did in his, but Lee's arm lasted longer than Sutter's. None of those guys, including Lee, had the career value at the closer position of a Mo Rivera or a Hoyt Wilhelm. Very borderline.
And speaking of weird career tracks, we come finally to McGwire. My main problem with him is not that he juiced, but that at mid-career he didn't look anything remotely like a HoFer. Through 1994, you have a guy who won rookie of the year, then got 10% worse every year for 4 years until one good year (1992) halted a career-threatening slide. Then injuries wiped out the next two years. He came back partway into 1995 and stayed healthy for five years, putting up huge numbers thanks to a tiny strike zone, depleted pitching quality and 'roids. If you compare him to the mid-rank HoFer he most closely resembles (Harmon Killebrew), McGwire falls well short on issues of consistency and durability. Borderline, at best.
Mattingly was a superstar, yeah, but... after he hurt his back he was merely good, like Grace or Joyner, and this covered almost 2/3 of his career. I'd have trouble voting for a guy who was great for five years at a position as strong as first. There were a lot of guys who kicked butt for five years. Kluzewski, eg. I don't see it. 'Low' borderline is generous.
Dale Murphy started out as an MVP type, yeah, but basically stopped hitting good righty fastballs after age 29. Five years of hitting .220 and then only thanks to a 20-25% diet of lefty junkballers during what should have been productive years does not a HoFer make. Sorry, Dale, but you're below the line.
Without the juice, Palmeiro is another Mark Grace / Wally Joiner type. He can wait until we decide about Will Clark and McGwire, both of whom have better star credentials. Get used to waiting, Raffy.
I don't see anybody else as having a real case for the Hall beyond these.
My Ballot would read:
1. Raines
2. Bagwell
3. Trammell
4. Larkin
5. Edgar
...and stop there.
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Joe Poz assessment of first-year eligibles
by supertyphoon » Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:39 am
Nice post docdave -
Joe Posnanski has a "curiously long post" on all of the first-time players on this year's ballot. Very interesting read ...
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/20/hof-story-1-first-timers/#more-8641
Joe Posnanski has a "curiously long post" on all of the first-time players on this year's ballot. Very interesting read ...
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/20/hof-story-1-first-timers/#more-8641
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by KEITHMARTELL » Sun Dec 25, 2011 8:03 am
2012 Hall of Fame Ballot
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Barry Larkin, SS
Edgar Martinez, 3B/DH
Don Mattingly, 1B
Fred McGriff, 1B
Jack Morris, RHP
Tim Raines, OF
Lee Smith, RHP
Alan Trammell, SS
Larry Walker, OF
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Barry Larkin, SS
Edgar Martinez, 3B/DH
Don Mattingly, 1B
Fred McGriff, 1B
Jack Morris, RHP
Tim Raines, OF
Lee Smith, RHP
Alan Trammell, SS
Larry Walker, OF
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Re: Joe Poz assessment of first-year eligibles
by Outta Leftfield » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:27 pm
[quote:c8c69129a5="nexrad"]
Joe Posnanski has a "curiously long post" on all of the first-time players on this year's ballot. Very interesting read ...
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/20/hof-story-1-first-timers/#more-8641[/quote:c8c69129a5]
Very interesting piece by Posnanski--thanks for the link. I especially liked it when Joe P pointed out that this is a comparatively weak class, with Bernie Williams as the player with the highest WAR. He then adds:
[quote:c8c69129a5]Next year, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling and Craig Biggio all go on the ballot for the first time. There has never in the history of the Hall of Fame been a ballot quite like that — so filled with greatness and controversy and strong feelings. The world might explode. The year after that, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina go on the ballot. The world might explode again. The year AFTER THAT Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Gary Sheffield go on the ballot. In other words over the next three years, we will get FIFTEEN players who are (select one):
(1) Certain Hall of Famers
(2) Amazing player with steroid questions
(3) Borderline Hall of Famers for people to argue about.
So, it’s probably good to just enjoy a year where the only real argument is how we view the career of Bernie Williams.[/quote:c8c69129a5]
We're going to have some lively discussions! :shock:
And it's going to be hard for guys like Trammell, Walker and Lee Smith to make the Hall in the face of that overwhelming competition.
Joe Posnanski has a "curiously long post" on all of the first-time players on this year's ballot. Very interesting read ...
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/12/20/hof-story-1-first-timers/#more-8641[/quote:c8c69129a5]
Very interesting piece by Posnanski--thanks for the link. I especially liked it when Joe P pointed out that this is a comparatively weak class, with Bernie Williams as the player with the highest WAR. He then adds:
[quote:c8c69129a5]Next year, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling and Craig Biggio all go on the ballot for the first time. There has never in the history of the Hall of Fame been a ballot quite like that — so filled with greatness and controversy and strong feelings. The world might explode. The year after that, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina go on the ballot. The world might explode again. The year AFTER THAT Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Gary Sheffield go on the ballot. In other words over the next three years, we will get FIFTEEN players who are (select one):
(1) Certain Hall of Famers
(2) Amazing player with steroid questions
(3) Borderline Hall of Famers for people to argue about.
So, it’s probably good to just enjoy a year where the only real argument is how we view the career of Bernie Williams.[/quote:c8c69129a5]
We're going to have some lively discussions! :shock:
And it's going to be hard for guys like Trammell, Walker and Lee Smith to make the Hall in the face of that overwhelming competition.
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by majicmg » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:16 pm
Bagwell, Larkin, Morris, Martinez, Smith and Trammell.
Even being the Yankee fan that I am, I don't believe that Mattingly contributed long enough or that Bernie stood out enough from the crowd to warrant a vote.
Even being the Yankee fan that I am, I don't believe that Mattingly contributed long enough or that Bernie stood out enough from the crowd to warrant a vote.
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