Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

by **qksilver69** » Wed Dec 21, 2011 4:17 pm

Hey Bernie,

In a separate thread we were having a discussion about which player cards are included in the regular set or relegated to the unleashed set. I heard that you implemented parameters along these lines last year:

(non-catcher position players)
Over 150 PAs (AB+BB): included no matter what the card value

100-149 PAs: included if card value was $5M or less

50-99 PAs: included if card value was $2.5M or less

Can you confirm if this is the case, and also clarify what the parameters are for catchers? Would help a lot of us in dynasty leagues to improve our planning & Hot Stove efforts.

Thanks,
Dave/Qk

by **bernieh** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 4:27 pm

Hi Dave,

The guidelines you posted are definitely not official. They seem intuitive, and may serve as a vague starting point, but ultimately it comes down to case-by-case judgement calls. I've previously written about this process here:

http://somonline.wikia.com/wiki/Fluke_cards

If you'd like to compile a list of players that you think are borderline cases, I may be able to start looking at them.

I do have an UNOFFICIAL opinion about the following high profile cases. Without seeing their cards and salaries, if I had to make a call right now, I'd say (subject to change):

- Brett Lawrie: included - 171 PA is reasonable, and he's a future star
- Jesus Montero: not included - future star, but 69 PA is not enough for [i:28e0204e63]that[/i:28e0204e63] card
- Jason Giambi: included - 152 PA is borderline, but reasonable

I don't usually weigh in about this this early in the game... I hope I don't regret it! Just trying to be helpful.

by **fredpaii** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:18 pm

You mentioned they were UNOFFICIAL. That means they can be changed. no sweat

by **qksilver69** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:01 am

Thanks Bernie - the main thing I wanted to know was whether there was actually a system in place to give it some consistency. It sounds like you use the chart I mentioned as a guideline but not hard & fast, do I have that right?

If there is still some judgment/Justice Potter type of "know it when I see it" element to this, that's fine, just good to know that upfront.

Giambi & Montero were the 2 most interesting questions to me, I thought Lawrie's PAs put him over the top anyway, and the performance could be repeatable, not such a fluke.

As always, appreciate the reply.

by **visick** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:10 pm

Because curious minds wanna know...

[u:0fe905b2aa]Yonder Alonzo[/u:0fe905b2aa]?

88 AB's, 10 BB's

Severly slanted to the right side...

by **Roscodog** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:03 pm

PLEASE LAWRIE

by **qksilver69** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:17 pm

SoCal - my bet on Alonso is a strong no. Under 100 PA guys like that almost never get in.

by **visick** » Sat Dec 24, 2011 11:16 pm

Even when they're so slanted to 1 side?

by **qksilver69** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:19 pm

Especially because they're so slanted to 1 side, if you set to avoid LHs then you get a really skewed result. The only hope is that his D is so bad it offsets the card value for hitting vs RH, but if in replays he can win the batting title (very possible) while set on avoid LHs, then he'd almost certainly be excluded.

by **visick** » Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:17 pm

He is a 4 in LF... :wink:

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Bernie can u open the kimono on exclusion parameters?

Bernie can u open the kimono on exclusion parameters?

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