Base Running: Conservative or Normal?

[daddybrucem]

I find that runners are being thrown out trying to take the extra base, 3rd Base or Home. The play by play does not reveal the split number for the extra base safe/out attempt, therefore I do not know if the percentages are in favor when the extra base is attempted. Can someone tell me if I am better off setting base running to Conservative, rather than Normal? I would like to be aggressive, but only if the percentages favor being safe or when there are 2 outs. All comments are welcome.

[Stormcrow2012]

I always go with aggressive, here at TSN and on the CD-ROM as well. Otherwise Hal will be too damn conservative. But I usually have teams filled with guys who can run. No where does it say what the settings actually mean in terms of numbers.

[PotKettleBlack]

As with everything, context matters.

Average team speed minus catcher (or slower) over 15 merits aggressive play.

<15 merits conservative.

Adjust nightly based on opposition. Do not run on an outfield of Clemente, Mays and Kaline. Do run on an outfield of + arms.

[daddybrucem]

Aggressive against teams that have outfielders with + throwing arms, and Conservative or Normal against teams with - throwing arms makes sense. Without knowing the split card numbers, we don't know how many base runners are safe.

Thanks Potkettleblack and Rookie Stormcrow.

[Mr Baseball World]

Definitely need guidance here. Seems like someone is thrown out at the plate for me every night. :oops:

[springer0432]

When the topic of baserunning aggression settings comes up, we almost always see the common assertion that you go aggressive against soft arms and conservative against live arms. Same thing goes for steal settings, except it's the opponent's catcher/pitcher instead of OF.

Personally, I like to set my baserunning risk tolerance level based on my home park and roster structure and don't change it based on my opponent's arms.

The aggressiveness level will determine at what net effect (speed +- arm) HAL will attempt to advance your baserunner. You don't have to change to a more aggressive level to advance more runners against a noodle armed OF. The + arms will raise the net baserunning effect number and more of your baserunners will rise to the effect needed to attempt to advance within your setting. And that is without getting thrown out a higher % of times to kill your rally.

Let's say the "conservative" setting means HAL will try to advance your runner if he has at least a 75% chance of being safe (a baserunnner and OF combining for a net speed effect of 15). Your baserunners who have a speed of 1-14 will advance more when you play + arm OF who raise the effect to 15 or higher. More advancement without changing your setting.

When you play a team with a weak OF, if you change to "aggressive", which let's say means HAL will advance your runner if you have a 65% chance of being safe.....you will have more runners advance but, you will also have a lot more thrown out because now Hal is advancing that 1-11 catcher of yours who is now a net effect 1-13 runner because of the +2 arm in CF. IMO, if you change your level of aggression you are not necessarily adapting to an opponents weakness (that advantage occurs w/o changing)..you are only changing your risk tolerance. Also, the percentages above are for arguments sake only. I have no solid intel on HAL's preferred vector for waving em around.

[Stormcrow2012]

With two outs you want your guys running. It is better that they get thrown out at the plate than stranded on base. Example: if you have a 50% chance of being safe at the plate with two outs, you want that guy running, unless you have Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds coming up next.

Also, Springer0432 is right, you do not have to adjust your settings based on your opponent's outfield arms, Hal does that for you.