2012 Hall of Fame class - who would YOU vote for?

[kupfernick]

Bagwell
Larkin
Raines
Lee Smith
Dale Murphy

[docdave]

I definitely agree with Joe P.'s article that the ballot will be choked with high profile choices after this year, which means that Trammell and Morris [and possibly Raines too] are likely looking at a one year window of opportunity.

The timing is good this year for Trammell. Ripken and Yount have been taken care of and A-Rod and Jeter are years away from showing up. Larkin may face an uphill climb due to the injury questions. Trammell looks good right now among the middle infield candidates. After this year, the crowded ballot will hurt him and everybody else who isn't a 'no questions asked' choice.

With Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Pedro and company filling up the ballot, Morris might not have a shot again before his eligibility ends.

[supertyphoon]

The announcement is tomorrow, and I'd be shocked if anyone else besides Larkin is inducted. Most of the writers that posted their ballots had only 3 or 4 names. It'll be nearly impossible for anyone other than an overwhelming favorite to make it beyond 50%, much less 75%.

[Paul_Long71]

fingers crossed for Larkin. My all-time favorite player. We find out tomorrow.

[BruceF]

Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Barry Larkin, SS
Edgar Martinez, 3B/DH
Don Mattingly, 1B
Mark McGwire, 1B
Rafael Palmeiro, 1B
Tim Raines, OF
Alan Trammell, SS
Larry Walker, OF
Bernie Williams, OF *

[macnole]

I guess I'm super old school then. I agree on Raines 100%. Bagwell no way, for instance though...

Cannot just look at stats against history across eras--need to look at where they were in their era, like the analysis on Raines. Bagwell had a 400 career OBA in an era where that is very good, but not auto-HOF.

To wit on Bagwell over his career...
Top 3 in BAvg: 1 time.
Top 3 in OBA: 3 times. Never #1.
Top 3 in OPS: 1 time.
Top 3 in HR: 3 times.
Top 3 in RBI: 3 times.

Looks like a couple/few statistically gorged years to me along with everyone else. And he didn't have a niche to make up for all around offensive dominance (lack of it).

For comparison, here is Stan Musial:
3x MVP
Top 3 in BAvg: 14 times (7 times #1!)
Top 3 in OBA: 13 times
Top 3 in OPS: 11 times
Top 3 in HR: 2 times
Top 3 in RBI: 5 times
Top 3 in Doubles: 12 times
Top 3 in triples: 7 times

So even in an era of small ballparks, well made/tighter wound baseballs, mounds lower height, it's clear one guy here in the comparison belongs, and it ain't Bagpipes (as much as he was a cool likable player). Give me a break--the HOF has to be guys that dominated their competition, or a portion of the game in some way. And he did not do well against higher competition in the postseason. He is not hall-worthy.

Note: Raines was top 3 in runs scored 4 times, OBA 3 times (and twice #4), BAvg 3 times...
Bags wasn't even in Raines' league when it came to performance against peers. Not even close. Raines should be in--he changed the game of his era. Bagwell did not. A four time all star who hit .250 in that venue, and a .226 hitter in 6 years of postseason play.
Many others like him in his era.

[macnole]

Inflated stat period is why Bags' stats appear gargantuan.

Look at a fellow contemporary compared to peers, Kenny Lofton:

At least he was a niche player, great D (4 GGs) and fast.
Top 3 in BAvg: 0. But 3 times #4.
Top 3 in Runs scored: 3 times.
Top 3 in triples: 3 times.
Top 3 in SB: 6 times (#1 5 times)
Top 3 in OF Assists: 5 times

Again, Bags was very good. But not HoF good for his era.