ATG a hitters game? What am I missing?

[danielz]

[quote:6b08e50592="Petrosian"]

The Sports Illustrated game that I played the 1970 and 1971 seasons with gave the pitcher the first shot at the dice. So for the best (and worse!) pitchers, the batters never got to roll on their card about 1/3 of the time. But for most of the pitchers 85% of the time they didn't influence the play and the batter would just roll on their cards. I loved that game.[/quote:6b08e50592]

I have that game too! Walter Johnson, Mathewson and Koufax were awesome. And Babe Ruth with a HR on a 34 shake was the man.

[goffchile]

I had that game too. It was great. Walter Johnson was the man if I recall.

[Horntsnest1]

I'm not sure I agree entirely that hitters have a big advantage over pitchers, I think a VERY DETERMINING FACTOR is the ballpark...But the main reason I decided to write was because after 100+ seasons I'm using Oliva for the first timr, he is seeing strictly RH pitching as he is in a platoon with Ennis and I can't believe what a disappointment he has been, no matter where in the order I bat him. You look at his card against righties , two solid rows, great cluch, great speed and yet he's barely hitting .240, I just don't get it :?

[gkhd11a]

[The problem with Tony Oliva is his card sucks and is overpriced. In Griffith his card is .403 AVG .567Slg .442 OBP vs right handers

Fred Luderus is .385AVG .533 SLG .437 OBP and hits lefties WAY better. Cliff Heathcote is .360 AVG .458 SLG .437 OBP and is about 2X as effective agianst lefties, as you can see in Griffith a 2.7 million hitter is nearly as effective as a 5.6 million hitter.

Therefore for the price savings you can upgrade a Howie Pollet .141 .175 .188 with a Jack Pfeister .086 .101 .128 and spread that advantage of savings on one position player of .055BA .074BA .060BA to 9 hitters, even if we take only the 33% of pitching that results in net advantage of .165BA .222SLG .180OBP one batter equivalent for your team for the downgrade of Oliva to Heathcote. Taking Heatchcote and Pfeister over Powlett & ??? you need a hitter that has a card of .525BA .680 SLG .617 OBP to offset the decrease in offense that Pfeister causes.--- in other words you need TY Cobb.

Now I do not think many players consider this but the reason there are so many pitching teams is the result of this math. However ironically enough the surge in pitching teams results in a shortage of top pitchers and suitable smallball players negating this strategy, and you can end up with lousy pitching teams like my Barnstormers team.

The other hidden advantage that hitting teams hold is the ability to fatigue the opposition pitchers, makin them less effective than their card. It is all so confusing.

Charlie

[modmark46]

...this small sampling:
In Astrodome - 456 AB, 18 HR, 49 RBI, .307 AVG, .498 SLG%, .379 OB%
In Briggs - 442 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, .310 AVG, .430 SLG%, .374 OB%
In Riverfront - 408 AB, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .321 AVG, .434 SLG%, .359 OB%
In Fenway 86 - 444 AB, 16 HR, 56 RBI, .324 AVG, .520 SLG%, .366 OB%
In Fenway 67 - 523 AB, 21 HR, 90 RBI, .361 AVG, .574 SLG%, .394 OB%
In Fenway 67 - 410 AB, 9 HR, 54 RBI, .324 AVG, .507 SLG%, .382 OB%
In Griffith - 170 AB, 5 HR, 19 RBI, .312, .459 SLG%, .385 OB% (as a late season pickup)
I have used him many times, and he has never failed to hit below .300 for me. Usually bats leadoff, but have used him as a #3 hitter. Often in a platoon with Clines, or McNeeley. I NEVER hesistate to use Tony, should I be left out of the usual RF choices. :)

[Munich_Man]

Well, I never thought that ATG was a slugger's game. In my experience, pitching and defense trump power nearly every time. I don't want to claim too much credit, but I think the obvious success that players like myself, Charlie and OT, among others, had early in ATG with small-ball, P&D oriented teams has definitely contributed to the more recent preponderance of such teams.

Then again, it depends on what you define as hitting, I guess. Too many people equate hitting with HRs. You can have a good hitting team that has little power. All I'm looking for is getting people on base and moving them around. Witness my last title team as an example--

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=100026

Only 64 HRs. The next fewest in the league was 110/111 and then 156. Clemente was my big slugger with 11 dingers.

But I led the league with 52 CGs and 13 SOs and my ERA was nearly .5 runs better than the next best. I also led the league in BBs allowed with 393. The next closest was 497 and no one else has less than 500. Don't know what that means exactly, but it sure is a significant difference.

Anyway, I just thought I'd throw that out there.

(_)ß

[Munich_Man]

Another thing-- where do you guys get all these numbers??? Sheesh, sometimes when I read some of Petrosian or Charlie or sschu's posts, I feel like I'm back in 4th grade. Where do you get all these imaginary stats?

When you walk through freshly fallen snow, do you hear the sound of numbers crunching?

(_)ß

[Treyomo]

The sound of numbers crunching echoes through my skull ...I can't...make...it...stop.....

Back to the original question. It's impossible for almost anyone to hit or pitch to their card in a neutral stadium. George Brett wouldn't hit .390 facing a steady diet of 20 game winners with almost all top notch fielders backing them, just like Pete won't win 31 games with a 1.22 ERA facing lineups chock full of HOFers.

I would guess that, on average, batters will hit about 30 points below their card, and pitchers will have ERAs about a run higher than their card. Oliva won't hit .400 on rare occasions, because even in a pure platoon his .120 batting vs. lefties will come into play 10% of the time when a lefty reliever comes in in the 3rd inning and Oliva won't get pulled that early. Even in a hitters park, his card average vs righties is only around .480, which only gets hit 50% of the time. Look at Brett. If he faces 75% righties in a hitters park, his card average will be around .530, but the pitchers card will be around .200, so the average of those two is gonna be around .360, not his .390 card.

[sschu]

MunchenMan,

You seem to be doing just fine without all those numbers ..... :)

While I am suspicious of the platoon performance and I am still of the opinion that there is something with high $$ sluggers going on (mystery card or normalization), predicted vs actual numbers are pretty accurate IMHO.

No conspiracies today.

FWIIW,

sschu

[JohnnyBlazers]

I am convinced there is some normalization going on with certain cards. Why is it the Pete Alexander hardly ever,gets bombed? if the rolls are to be 50/50, if it falls on the hitters card, he should have the occasional ERA of 7.00, and the WHIP of 2.00, like other stud hurlers Or why is it that a few of my Yankee '56 teams are in first, or the Wild Card, say if the season ended at game 130, but go 7-14, the next to last week, on three occasions this has happended, to lose the playoff spot? what is up with that? Though they may never tell us the truth, there is a conspiracy-get A&E on the case!