Okay sabermetricians, how many runs will this cost me?

[hackra]

My lastest experimental team will be starting play soon.
I count a total of 126 errors amongst the starting hitters, 110 errors amongst the 4 starting pitchers (the relievers have more) and an average fielding range rating of 3.5. The catcher also has a t rating of 12.

We will play in Candlestick.

Here is a team link -
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=368643

I plan on making no preseason nor in season moves. (FWIW Ruth will be 1b, Foxx 3b, and there is no DH).

This team should hit well, but I am curious as to how many runs this defense is likely to cost me.

Any educated guesses?

[scorehouse]

check the thread about the 2 100 game winners playing in the finals. look at the 106 win team's roster. 3/4's everywhere?

[junkfood johnny]

alot. between the 3 and 4 ratings and the errors, id say at least 150 unearned. the upside is youre gonna score a ton.

[scorehouse]

grab doyle for 2b. platoon with melillo so can have a 1 at 2b late in games.

[hackra]

[quote:c0dd4a50fb="scorehouse"]grab doyle for 2b. platoon with melillo so can have a 1 at 2b late in games.[/quote:c0dd4a50fb]

Thanks for the suggestion, and Doyle actually fits the team profile, but part of the point was NOT to have defensive backups that were better than the starters. I have ORTA as 2b backup, and plan to let Tubby bat his way around his errors. (Tubby is similar to Doyle vs RHP but much better vs LHP....and i'm willing to let Orta play if he gets injured).

Intriguing team you pointed out, but they do have Turkey in CF showing off his fancy glove. :wink:

[Roosky]

As someone that loves to score runs and is not scared to have some pretty bad d I despise a hitting team in a pitchers park. I know some like it but in all honesty it makes zero sense to me.

[Roosky]

Here is a 100 mil team of mine that has scored a few runs lol. Not as poor on the d as yours but not to great. They have played 147 games with a meager 506 homers haha. [url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=358454[/url]

[WeatherNut]

I love playing in hitters parks. But every time I'm in a league it seems like I end up with 5 pitchers parks, 5 slanted right/lefty parks, and maybe one neutral park.

My "home" park is Fulton County. I've played over 90% of my teams in that park. I'd love to join in a "hitters league" sometime.

WN

[Casey89]

[quote:767c1703d6="junkfood johnny"]alot. between the 3 and 4 ratings and the errors, id say at least 150 unearned. the upside is youre gonna score a ton.[/quote:767c1703d6]

Of course it's not just the unearned runs that'll penalize this team, but it's the lack of range that will turn a countless number of easy outs into base hits, I think.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I play one on TV ...

And then there's the opposite, playing in the same division.

[url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=368983]Mahomet Ace's[/url] and [url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=368278]Pasquo Pumpers[/url]

Note that ALL of the pitchers on both teams also have ZERO errors.

The question may be how many runs will these two teams PREVENT your team from scoring?

[hackra]

my simple minded math would suggest that if there are 30 X rolls on every pitcher's card, then with a range average for all fileders of 3.5 my guys should have (30/216)=.138888 or 13.9% of all rolls as X rolls of which 25% will be range misses = 3.47% range misses

If my opponents have roughly 40 PA per game (my pitching ain't so hot)
that would be about 1.39 range misses per game

the total errors added of all fielders is 126 plus an average error rate per pitcher of 28 should mean another 154 errors (which I will round up to 162 for math ease) or roughly 1 error per game.

I therefore get about 2.39 "flubs" per game by this team and I am guessing this may lead to 0-3 extra runs per game.

does that sound right to anyone?
:?


I do think this team will score more than my typical squad, but I am not so sure it will be 2+ runs per game more. I also do not think the defense of the opposition will be as major an issue in holding down scoring as will be the variability of pitcher vs hitter card rolls each inning. (against a couple of my division foes, if the rolls fall on their hitter's card it may be to my advantage)

it should be fun to watch....there are many experimental squads in this league.
:roll: :D 8-)