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[Knerrpool]

I would agree that 20.8 hits is not great, but by my calcs he's still in the top 5 in OPS vR in a neutral park.

[ShakeyBoomer]

Here are 7 players right off the top that are clearly better than Bautista vs RH pitching:

A. Gonzalez
J. Reyes
M. Cabrera
M. Napoli
M. Kemp
J. Ellsbury
R. Braun

[qksilver69]

A. Gonzalez .337/.422/.624, tougher home park
J. Reyes .341/.379/.509, tougher home park
M. Cabrera .353/.444/.603, tougher home park
M. Napoli .320/.407/.637, easier home park but not by a ton
M. Kemp .319/.380/.560 - tougher home park
J. Ellsbury: .344/.388/.577 vs RHP, tougher home park
R. Braun .327/.387/.591, similar home park
Bautista: .292/.436/.589

What stands out in the above comparisons? Batting average. It's very simple - you're overvaluing hits vs. OB, which disproportionately skew TBs, and to your mind skew the card downward. I don't care much about TBs when they are looked at separately from OB. This is why I ignore the SOM ratings that separate out BB from TB.

When you include BB with the base TB number, then add natural & BP HR (which are a better reflection of power in SOM cards than TB are, as TB's don't count BP HR), here is how Bautista stacks up vs. RHP:

M. Napoli 78.8/8/7.5
Bautista: 76.8/8/7
A. Gonzalez 77.5/8/6.2
M. Cabrera 78.3/8/4.4
M. Kemp 66/8/6.1
J. Ellsbury 66.8/8/5.6
R. Braun 69/7/4.2
J. Reyes 64.1/9/.4

You see now why your analysis based on the SOM TB column is incomplete? Bautista did 2 things exceptionally well in 2011: take walks and hit HRs. He only hit 24 doubles! The SOM card reflects that. His BA vs. RH was good but not elite, and the card reflects that as well. In the adjusted TB+BP HR+natural HR department, Bautista has the #2 card vs. RH behind Napoli. Given that Napoli projects to 50+ HRs over a full 650 PA season and had a better OPS vs RH than Bautista, I'd say that's on target.

[ShakeyBoomer]

And you are severely undervaluing hits because for the vast majority of cases, [b:dfb98798c1][i:dfb98798c1]HITS not WALKS drive in runs[/i:dfb98798c1][/b:dfb98798c1]. A lack of hits means less runs driven in. [b:dfb98798c1][i:dfb98798c1]Elite hitters both score runs themselves due to their own high OBP and drive in the runs that are already on base in front of them[/i:dfb98798c1][/b:dfb98798c1]. Bautista will be feast or famine based on his paultry TB numbers.

Your analysis is the one that is flawed because you are: (a) overvaluing OB; in and of itself; and (b) you are combining all of your TB analysis with OB numbers as well. Walks only help so much - you must have enough hits to drive them in...

[qksilver69]

Your original point was that Bautista's card was "screwed" by SOM. My point was it was accurate, and I think I've shown that.

We can disagree about how to value OB vs. hits (there's a formula for it but if you're so focused on the non-OB TB number, doubt it would matter much to you), but I'll take Bautista's card vs RH all day over everyone on the list except possibly Napoli's & Cabrera's if in a pitcher park.

[ShakeyBoomer]

Ignoring ballpark effects, Bautista's avg. against RH pitching is 20.4 /(108-30) = 20.4/78 or .262. Even given that a number of his total plate appearance outcomes in a draft league will come against the pitcher, Bautista would have to destroy the pitcher outcomes to come anywhere close to hitting the .298 he hit vs. RH's during the real regular season. In addition, 44/78 = .564 for Bautista's slugging % on his card absent ballpark effects. Once again, he would have to destroy the pitcher outcomes to match his regular season totals. Given that Bautista had ZERO split differential between home/road in 2011, Strat-o-matic did in fact SCREW Bautista because he will almost never match his season totals unless he is placed in an extreme hitter's park. In a neutral park or pitcher's park, he will never duplicate his regular season results.

[keyzick]

...and that's why we play the games...

:D

Thought I'd just interject that, seemed appropriate....you may now continue with your discussion...

[Knerrpool]

Don't really want to get involved, but unless I am missing something, his card SLG vR is .587 (need to incl. HBP) which is almost exactly his actual. And, his card OBP vR is .489 which is 53 points [i:ded19f8211]higher [/i:ded19f8211]than his actual.

[qksilver69]

My point exactly Knerrpool. Shakey is fixated on the fact (which I have never disagreed with) that Bautista is not likely to match his real-life BA vs RHP in a neutral park.

But the reason the hits are so low is that SOM had to find a way to get his OB right, and HRs right. Those were the standout pieces of his real-life stats. His home park was HR-friendly, so in that park, the BP HRs will improve his BA to bring it in range of the real-life BA. In a neutral park setting, that is not likely to be the case though.

Shakey, I have no doubt that your .262 projection is accurate, what I disagree with is whether that outcome screws the card value. His OB is so elite that IMO the lack of BA is not a card-killer. We disagree, let's just end it there.

[geekor]

well the steroid era is officially over....

I used to aim for a guy with 45+ ob and a * for a leadoff hitter... there is one guy (vs RHP) now....

2004 - 13
2005 - 10
2006 - 6
2011 - 1

ouchies.... I know de Aza will be on all my draft lists :P (and Reyes, depending on his injury, maybe #1 on all my lists :( )