Invitational league: Weinberg vs Petrosian

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:13f0f4156c="weinberg"]how about a 2-3 line blurb on each of the 4? simply stating my incorrect assumptions on each topic.

1) pricing
2) cheating
3) win percentage
4) what a man would do[/quote:13f0f4156c]

I will take the bait:
1- Pricing: You have made many flawed assumptions about pricing. You have assumed that R1 will pitch 120 IP. Based on Dope actuals at 100:
R1 pitcher: Avg IP - Uses
Hoffman: 78 IP - 36
Eck90: 79 IP - 85
Smoltz: 67 IP - 50
Nen: 69 IP - 28
Wetteland: 89 IP - 16
Honeycutt: 60 IP - 12
(That is every R1 over 1.75)
74.2 IP average from a R1 over $1.75 with 227 seasons. I'd say that's robust.

We've already been over the error in assumptions about injury pricing.
We can assume that R3s are priced differently from R4 and R5s. Dale Murray is useful here. In a neutral park (something like 9's all around), his nearest neighbors (R3 or greater) on Joe the Jet's sheet are Lee Smith above and Barney Schultz below. Both are ~.30 cheaper, despite being about the same pitcher. Smith is a touch more balanced, Schultz a bit more lefty titled. Schultz has GBA. So, the assumption that R3-5 are priced the same is nonsense. Miljus's nearest neighbors are Newhouser 54 above and Arroyo below. Miljus is $.7 more than Newhouser who is better overall, holds better, GBAs, but has BPHR. $.30 more than Arroyo who is tilted and a much worse fielder.

2) Cheating.

I think you are confusing the exploitation of the game engine with cheating. I would define cheating as something that does not jibe with the rules of the game (e.g. the trick to have one catcher in Live Draft). There is nothing in the rules of ATG that does not allow Super R. Carry at least 4 relievers, 3 who are pure. That's it.

3) Win percentage.
Is irrelevant. It's nice that you win a lot. I do not play 200M/Live because the competition is a lot higher. I do not really consider myself an expert based on making the BS Semis for three years running.

4) A man doesn't need to do anything because a child tells him to. A man does not need to shame others to make himself feel more like a man. So, "what a hypothetical man would do" is less relevant than Win%. Which was irrelevant in and of itself.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:812e2d969b="BDWard"]I have a feeling that this thread will soon be consigned to the "restricted access" bullpen.[/quote:812e2d969b]

A happy day that will be.

[img:812e2d969b]http://www.sitcomsonline.com/fonzhdgang3.jpg[/img:812e2d969b]

[Salty]

First of all:

Well said PKB, I think you got the maths part that I'm poor at articulating.

Second, BBW- I did find that comment funny- but I actually meant it as 'men' and not men. (see the novel Wicked for the differentiation on animals and Animals)

Third- are we still playing in this league- or is there going to be a protest when someone drafts another player- or can I get a list of the restricted players and useage just so I can prepare my statement now?

Fourth- Live Draft on DDOPE is actually fun as hell- lets get this ball rollin'

5th- GOOOOOOOOO WOOOOOOOOOORLLLD PEACE :wink:

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:b9be950093="El-Saltman"]First of all:

Well said PKB, I think you got the maths part that I'm poor at articulating.
...

5th- GOOOOOOOOO WOOOOOOOOOORLLLD PEACE :wink:[/quote:b9be950093]

Thanks El

World Peace for sale and NBA.com
[url]http://store.nba.com/product/index.jsp?productId=12544344&cp=3045636.3895475[/url]

[13Baseballs]

[quote:0d27d6a1a6="weinberg"]how about a 2-3 line blurb on each of the 4? simply stating my incorrect assumptions on each topic.

1) pricing
2) cheating
3) win percentage
4) what a man would do[/quote:0d27d6a1a6]


Let me just start off and say, I've been around since ATG, so I guess I'm considered as an Old Timer. My winning percentage may not be the best, but every now and then, I draft a team that does fairly well. To me, this is a fun game... A GAME! I have spent many hours with Modmark playing the dice game in the early 70's... it was also a fun game back then.
As I stated in an earlier post, I do not read/post the Message Boards very often... but this post, I cannot stay away from! My work is suffering.
Weinberg, get a life... this is a game... as stated earlier "we could care less about your winning pct, pricing formula, BS success". If you are such a great Manager, why do you not share your winning secrets, your pricing formula, etc... why do you not help others and be their mentor... instead of bashing and pounding.
To my knowledge, we have never played in the same League. Your comments in this Post, makes me not want to in the future. You seem like the type that would win the whole thing and then brag about it. Downgrade the other Managers. This is a game... remember that! Lighten up.
And no, I am not somebody's girlfriend... I am my wife's husband... and proud of it! Try watching who you call "girlfriend"! You are offending too many people... Chris

[cristano1]

1) Pricing: If I take every pure RP from dope (caveat I do not use dope so I think I have these right): R1 average 60 ip, R2 average 73 ip, R3 average 82 ip, R4 average 86 ip, R5 average 105 ip; all ATG6 leagues, all RP over 1.5m.

For a moment, assume the pricing model uses these averages. We have Dale Murray, for example, who has an era similar to the 10.55m mathewson. For all S9* over 9m, the average ip is 291. If all those expensive S9* are priced correctly, which for the most part they are (the S9* pricing is very stable), then Murray should cost 10.55x86/291=3.12m. We can then back into what ip are expected out of Murray: 154 ip. pretty close to my 165 ip estimate. that is assuming that SP and RP are of equal value. In your Murray argument, you have him 5% more expensive than those R3s that sandwich him. If a RP is priced at 155 ip, and someone uses him for double that, it is nothing more than gaining an unintended and unfair advantage because of a flaw in the HAL logic.

2) Cheating: Now, when someone purposely manipulates the gaming engine, to get Murray to pitch 300 ip (I use Petro's Barnstormers Semis as an example) to me that is cheating. But to us all, at the very least, it is seriously manipulating the gaming engine.

4) What a man would do: Don't you think that if someone created a challenge league, and that someone was a man, he would want to win by drafting and fine tuning a better team, rather than doing his best to manipulate the gaming engine? I mean, the game engine design is decent but it isn't airtight. Why call someone out and then purposely manipulate the gaming engine? It just shows how scared one is (in my opinion). The only reason that Petro drafted Murray first is because he found a hole in the game logic, and wants to manipulate it. Why not focus on team design? Matchups? Team fluidity? All the important things that makes strat great? Why instead focus on gaining a cheap/unintended advantage through a flaw in the strato design? Again, to me, in my opinion... that is the last thing a man does. Take pride in drafting a legit team. Win or lose, be proud that your team is legit. Why say "Oh I know how to make a super reliever pitch 300-350 ip)". No kidding, we all know how to do that. But none of us do. Not in leagues that matter. Not what men do. Not at all.

3) Record: I have never played in a league over 100m. I also refuse to play in a 60m unless forced to by Barnstormers. I have stated my reasons for doing so. I won't comment on win percentage anymore aside from saying, mine is the highest, for whatever reason.




I will take the bait:
1- Pricing: You have made many flawed assumptions about pricing. You have assumed that R1 will pitch 120 IP. Based on Dope actuals at 100:
R1 pitcher: Avg IP - Uses
Hoffman: 78 IP - 36
Eck90: 79 IP - 85
Smoltz: 67 IP - 50
Nen: 69 IP - 28
Wetteland: 89 IP - 16
Honeycutt: 60 IP - 12
(That is every R1 over 1.75)
74.2 IP average from a R1 over $1.75 with 227 seasons. I'd say that's robust.

We've already been over the error in assumptions about injury pricing.
We can assume that R3s are priced differently from R4 and R5s. Dale Murray is useful here. In a neutral park (something like 9's all around), his nearest neighbors (R3 or greater) on Joe the Jet's sheet are Lee Smith above and Barney Schultz below. Both are ~.30 cheaper, despite being about the same pitcher. Smith is a touch more balanced, Schultz a bit more lefty titled. Schultz has GBA. So, the assumption that R3-5 are priced the same is nonsense. Miljus's nearest neighbors are Newhouser 54 above and Arroyo below. Miljus is $.7 more than Newhouser who is better overall, holds better, GBAs, but has BPHR. $.30 more than Arroyo who is tilted and a much worse fielder.

2) Cheating.

I think you are confusing the exploitation of the game engine with cheating. I would define cheating as something that does not jibe with the rules of the game (e.g. the trick to have one catcher in Live Draft). There is nothing in the rules of ATG that does not allow Super R. Carry at least 4 relievers, 3 who are pure. That's it.

3) Win percentage.
Is irrelevant. It's nice that you win a lot. I do not play 200M/Live because the competition is a lot higher. I do not really consider myself an expert based on making the BS Semis for three years running.

4) A man doesn't need to do anything because a child tells him to. A man does not need to shame others to make himself feel more like a man. So, "what a hypothetical man would do" is less relevant than Win%. Which was irrelevant in and of itself.

13Baseballs: Trash talking is part of the game. I typically mean no harm, i just like to liven things up. Rarely do I get irate, unless I feel like someone is purposely doing something thats complete BS. As for mentoring, I have answered the questions that quite a few managers have asked me in private. Finally, I have no issue with your wife.

[13Baseballs]

[quote:446f43a8de="weinberg"]13Baseballs: Trash talking is part of the game. I typically mean no harm, i just like to liven things up. Rarely do I get irate, unless I feel like someone is purposely doing something thats complete BS. As for mentoring, I have answered the questions that quite a few managers have asked me in private. Finally, I have no issue with your wife.[/quote:446f43a8de]


There is a difference between trash talking and down right being rude... and in my opinion, you have crossed the line... just like you said "Rarely do I get irate, unless I feel like someone is purposely doing something thats complete BS."... could not have said it better myself.

[OakAth72]

Can we get a simple "yes" or "no" in regards to the continuance of this league? I suppose this is directed at weinberg since he is the one who claims to be backing out....and I believe Salt has asked you a couple of times for same. Don't care about your equations, opinions, or insults......just want a simple one word "yes" or "no". If you want to lobby for conditions to further assure your cooperation in this league then I am out.

I have to be at the hospital at midnight wednesday (PDT) and while this is good reading I do not have the time or luxury to keep checking back to see if we have made progress and are moving forward.

Yes or no?

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:f0f7e4ffcf="weinberg"]1) Pricing: If I take every pure RP from dope (caveat I do not use dope so I think I have these right): R1 average 60 ip, R2 average 73 ip, R3 average 82 ip, R4 average 86 ip, R5 average 105 ip; all ATG6 leagues, all RP over 1.5m.[/quote:f0f7e4ffcf]

I think using all RP over 1.5 is a little bent, as is all caps. Honeycutt is a good example of why I think so. In 140+ Honeycutt is L-Spec. In 100, he's a set-up. In 80, setup or closer, 60 closer. His R1 is consistently R1, but his role is massively different at all caps. Whereas Eck 90 is always the closer (and really shouldn't be used at 60 or 80, or probably even 100).

The average use of S9* over 9M is also twisted by cap. In 80-100 an S9* over 9M is a stud, probably set to slow hook or Don't Relieve before FX. 330 IP. In 140/200, S9* >9M is anywhere from a 1-4 guy (I did a 140 with Santana as the 4th starter), and given the depth of bullpen available at 140/200, likely to be regular/quick hook.

As a result, I dismiss the next argument, because it's based on sloppy assumptions. It also assigns blame to HAL, which has nothing to do with pricing (as it's formula based outside of HAL... bbrool and co.)

[quote:f0f7e4ffcf]For a moment, assume the pricing model uses these averages. We have Dale Murray, for example, who has an era similar to the 10.55m mathewson. For all S9* over 9m, the average ip is 291. If all those expensive S9* are priced correctly, which for the most part they are (the S9* pricing is very stable), then Murray should cost 10.55x86/291=3.12m. We can then back into what ip are expected out of Murray: 154 ip. pretty close to my 165 ip estimate. that is assuming that SP and RP are of equal value. In your Murray argument, you have him 5% more expensive than those R3s that sandwich him. If a RP is priced at 155 ip, and someone uses him for double that, it is nothing more than gaining an unintended and unfair advantage because of a flaw in the HAL logic.[/quote:f0f7e4ffcf]

I do not see the numbers for Murray that you are coming up with from DD Actuals, as they are not there. Being (semi)responsible for updating DD Actuals, I can assure you they have not been updated since Murray was added (admission of failure on my part).

Let's work it with a different R4. Wilhelm 65. Let's go apples-apples and work the Kaiser against a comp S9*. I like Wilhelm because he has 60 uses at 100M so we can feel pretty good about his numbers. Not great (large number of BPHR vs L being one factor)
Numbers: $5.36 - 154 IP/average - 3.86 ERA /1.19 WHIP
Koufax 65 is a decent comp.
Koufax 65: $10.15 - 318 IP/average - 3.77 ERA/1.18 WHIP

Cost / 50 IP:
Koufax: 1.60 M
Wilhelm: 1.74 M

What? Whoa! Wilhelm is more expensive on an expected per inning basis than Koufax, who is actually a bit better? Koufax must be priced badly.

Play another round:
Miljus R5 - $4.61 - 153 IP - 4.03 ERA / 1.4 WHIP - 75 uses (feel better about these than Wilhelm's #s actually)
Comp with:
Grove S9*/R5 - $9.18 - 315 IP - 4.03 ERA / 1.35 WHIP - 18 uses (don't feel good about that one)

Cost / 50 IP:
Grove: 1.46M
Miljus: 1.51M

I didn't even cherry pick these. I went for high use, R4+ relievers, and looked for comps among starters. The tough part is that no quality S9* starter has 6 bombs on the left side, limiting use or producing Wilhelm's kind of ERA/WHIP combo, and no quality S9* has the kind of WHIP that Miljus produces with his ERA.

I could play this game all day.

[quote:f0f7e4ffcf]2) Cheating: Now, when someone purposely manipulates the gaming engine, to get Murray to pitch 300 ip (I use Petro's Barnstormers Semis as an example) to me that is cheating. But to us all, at the very least, it is seriously manipulating the gaming engine.[/quote:f0f7e4ffcf]
Again, you play the game by the rules laid out. If you break the rules, you are a cheater. If you work the system, you are smart. That's America.
If you want a bonafide on this: I won my Dean's Award in Business Ethics Education at Wash U in St. Lou when I got my MBA. My mentor at work is the Ethics Counsel. I can go on.

I stand by everything I pointed out in your logic. I stand behind my math and my use of DD. I point out that if you are claiming to have used DD for actuals on Murray, you are a liar, which is essentially cheating in debate. Which makes your accusations of cheating in the game ring more hollow than they are.

[cristano1]

i say we punt on the league. teamsters hasnt been able to draft for whatever reason. we lose you on wednesday. i think the entire leagues a sham to begin with, because of the super reliever issue.