by Mean Dean » Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:30 pm
[quote:2877d7169c]He's not getting in, though he was very, very good.[/quote:2877d7169c]Whether he [i:2877d7169c]will[/i:2877d7169c] get in is, of course, a very different question than whether he [i:2877d7169c]should[/i:2877d7169c]. After all, I'm saying Simmons should definitely be in, yet he lasted a grand total of one year on the ballot, getting 3.7% of the vote.
Other than Jorge's actual value, what are the factors that may affect the writers? Well, winning a bunch of championships, and being often discussed in the same breath as no-doubters Jeter and Mo, will help. He's definitely famous. On the other hand, probably because as mentioned catchers tend not to lead the league in categories and thus are not usually seen as "dominant" players, the Hall doesn't love electing them. It's not just Simmons; a few of the other top 15-20 catchers of all time (Elston Howard as cited, Bill Freehan, Joe Torre) are also not in. In fact, of those four guys, only Torre has gotten any meaningful support at all.
Bernie Williams, who is similar to Posada as a candidate even beyond the obvious reasons, only got 9.6% of the vote this year on a very weak ballot. That seems to bode badly for Jorge, but on the other hand, it seems like Jorge's career is ending in a way more likely to leave a positive memory. Bernie declined to the point that he was truly lousy, then retired before the last championship, then kept begging to come back which made him a bit of a joke. Posada only had the one bad year, which wasn't even [i:2877d7169c]that[/i:2877d7169c] bad, and it seems like he's getting a nice sendoff.
Finally, as anyone who follows this stuff knows, we are about to have a giant cluster**** of a ballot, beginning next year. Anyone connected in any way to performance-enhancing drugs is probably going to get somewhere between 5% and 75% of the vote, which means they stay on the ballot... and there are [i:2877d7169c]many[/i:2877d7169c] such players. Yet you can only vote for 10 players, and most of the writers generally vote for around five. It will be an utter disaster.
Ultimately, other than some unstoppable forces like Griffey, Maddux and Randy Johnson, I don't think it's possible to predict whether [i:2877d7169c]anyone[/i:2877d7169c] who has retired lately is going to get in, never mind a guy like Posada who is borderline to begin with.