Waiver order correlation to winning

[Valen]

I am thinking about 2 recent threads.

The first is a current discussion going about whether you can recover from a bad draft in a 200 mil league.

The second was from a few weeks back where someone posted aggregated data from live draft leagues showing the winning percentages resulting from picking at various spots.

I am wondering if the same could be done with regard to waiver pick location and winning percentage or championships. What is the overall winning percentage at each cap level for teams who receive the #1 waiver pick? #12? Everything in between?

Ultimate question to be addressed: How much correlation is there for each cap level to where you end up in waivers and your final record?

[Stormcrow2012]

I have never played in a 200 million dollar league, and I doubt I ever would, unless it was with a free credit, but I can not imagine waiver order effecting where you finish in an 80 or 100 million dollar league.

My understanding is that the 200 million dollar auto drafts involve a lot of luck, is this incorrect?

[JOSEPHKENDALL]

[quote:a829f5ecb7="Stormcrow2012"]I have never played in a 200 million dollar league, and I doubt I ever would, unless it was with a free credit, but I can not imagine waiver order effecting where you finish in an 80 or 100 million dollar league.

My understanding is that the 200 million dollar auto drafts involve a lot of luck, is this incorrect?[/quote:a829f5ecb7]

The draft in a $200M league can make or break you. Yes you can set up some platoons, but it seems if you have a bad draft you are screwed.

[nevdully's]

You know I composed a response and deleted it.

Came back to this thread by accident....and composed another response...and deleted it. Why?

Because I realized that 99.9% of the time once this community forms an opinion, no one, no words, nothing, will change their minds.

Maybe during the next year as another 200+ players have been added to this huge player pool that is already here, some people will change their minds.


BTW in my most recent draft Pete and Joss went undrafted and Chipper Jones and other big hitters too....Do you know why? D-e-e-p player pool....Josh Gibson went undrafted 2 leagues in a row....Babe Ruth once last week. Do you know why? D-e-e-p player pool.


Now a deep pool doesn't mean you can just filled out the top 25 guys and win 90+ games...but (and I say this with all due respect) success or failure is much more tied into knowing the game, and what players have value in 200 than just blaming everything on the "luck" of your draft.

[Valen]

I play a lot of 200 mil teams and while I do believe a lot of luck is involved do not have much trouble recovering from a bad draft. Might have been some truth to not being able to recover at one time but player pool is so deep now recovering is not an impossible task.

Obviously joekendall does not agree with me. :lol: Half the time I do not agree with myself.

[nevdully's]

[quote:4ea8635b89]Half the time I do not agree with myself. [/quote:4ea8635b89]

ROTFLMAO!

[FUDU]

I've been wondering this exact same thing about correlation, except in regards to ballparks & championships won or ballparks and playoff appearances.

Is there any research or insight into that?

[Valen]

There was a thread a few months ago that showed winning percentages by ballpark. I immediately launched 3 teams in parks with the lowest winning percentage and verified you can build losing teams there. :lol:

[JOSEPHKENDALL]

[quote:7ad5ad423c="Valen"]I play a lot of 200 mil teams and while I do believe a lot of luck is involved do not have much trouble recovering from a bad draft. Might have been some truth to not being able to recover at one time but player pool is so deep now recovering is not an impossible task.

Obviously joekendall does not agree with me. :lol: Half the time I do not agree with myself.[/quote:7ad5ad423c]

I will say that I took about a 9 month break from playing ATG. I have just begun playing in $200M leagues again. My opinion is based on more of a time before we had the extra cards.

If you are in a slanted park though, I have found it hard to get a decent 3B or CF if you miss out in the draft. I would advocate trading, but I am finding it hard to get a fair deal or to get anyone to trade even when they are getting the better deal.

[Valen]

I suppose a part of this discussion would be subjective opinions on whether a high position in waivers really means a bad draft. And flipside of coin does low position in waivers mean you had a good draft.

Also when you think about it if you do a good job of drafting and I do a bad job how much expectation should I really have of finishing ahead of you in the end? I understand for purposes of maintaining interest be good if I can but realistically how much expectation should I have of it happening?

Rangers baseball team has done an outstanding job of drafting for last 5-7 years. They are winning. Cowboys football team has done poor job for about a decade and well they are not quite winning. I suppose Cowboys fans could complain but should doing a bad job at anything be reasonably expected to lead to success?