I think it is dismissive to say that arm strength does not have an effect. In general, I think many managers that play here are quick to dismiss or forget the contributions of defense because the statistics for them are not reported and/or may be more difficult to see as directly as the offensive ones.
People tend to gripe about the performance of this player or that player, solely looking at his offensive contributions. A perfect example of this is Cesar Cedeno. Folks that play a lot of live draft leagues are particularly quick to claim him as being "overpriced" (and I am not saying that he is or isn't), but a 1e6 in CF with a -4 arm is pretty darn good, and he may just be saving runs to make up for any runs his bat or legs don't produce.
I really look forward to these new features being available in the new SOM platform. Perhaps it will help justify the expense of defense.
Speaker's 1912 card worth the extra $3.15m?
31 posts
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by JOSEPHKENDALL » Tue Feb 14, 2012 11:07 am
There is an interesting article on defense for SOM here:
http://andrew-stevens.tripod.com/index/stratfield.html
A Strat fielding page here:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/stratfldg.htm
And I can't find it right now, but Dean had an excellent pdf file you could download that went into defense even better. Lo and behold it appears in the Strategy section:
http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=515863
http://andrew-stevens.tripod.com/index/stratfield.html
A Strat fielding page here:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/stratfldg.htm
And I can't find it right now, but Dean had an excellent pdf file you could download that went into defense even better. Lo and behold it appears in the Strategy section:
http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=515863
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by PotKettleBlack » Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:22 pm
Dean didn't include arm strength (or catcher D) in his article. Catchers was something he proposed working on, but having looked at it myself, so damn context specific it's hard to take apart. And I love me some DeanTSC's Offense vs. Defense V2 article. I have it saved in case I can't find it again.
The Andrew Stevens article also does not touch catchers or OF Arm strength. Neither do the fielding tables.
It is WAY too context specific. I would not go without strong arms in a 70's-80's league, when running was big. I would not hesitate to play noodle armed guys in a 50's-early 60's game, when station to station ball was the norm. Ditto for the 30s. Speed as a strategy comes and goes, largely with the movement of the run scoring environment. Since the run scoring environment of ATG100 is most analogous to 1930 ball, only with more varied attacks... it's very hard to even suggest what you're losing by playing the weak arm in the OF.
OTOH, since base stealing is pretty well understood (~70% is break even, running above 70% is value producing and should be done more, below 69% is generally losing value, and should be knocked off entirely), easier to value the catcher arm. But first-to-third is not as widely understood (I mean, you can markov chain, and average value it, but I don't have the run value increase of first to third on a single off the top of my head like the steal number), and the effect of OF arm on success is actually a lot more complicated than it looks at first blush.
Comp doesn't run on Clemente (and after a year or two, neither did anyone in real life). Solid arm has a chilling effect. -1/-2 arms have a less chilling effect, but do produce more outs on the basepaths than -5 arms. How to quantify the extra bases given against the extra outs generated. I like the -5 arm, as it locks people down, but I'd like the extra outs, too.
And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.
The Andrew Stevens article also does not touch catchers or OF Arm strength. Neither do the fielding tables.
It is WAY too context specific. I would not go without strong arms in a 70's-80's league, when running was big. I would not hesitate to play noodle armed guys in a 50's-early 60's game, when station to station ball was the norm. Ditto for the 30s. Speed as a strategy comes and goes, largely with the movement of the run scoring environment. Since the run scoring environment of ATG100 is most analogous to 1930 ball, only with more varied attacks... it's very hard to even suggest what you're losing by playing the weak arm in the OF.
OTOH, since base stealing is pretty well understood (~70% is break even, running above 70% is value producing and should be done more, below 69% is generally losing value, and should be knocked off entirely), easier to value the catcher arm. But first-to-third is not as widely understood (I mean, you can markov chain, and average value it, but I don't have the run value increase of first to third on a single off the top of my head like the steal number), and the effect of OF arm on success is actually a lot more complicated than it looks at first blush.
Comp doesn't run on Clemente (and after a year or two, neither did anyone in real life). Solid arm has a chilling effect. -1/-2 arms have a less chilling effect, but do produce more outs on the basepaths than -5 arms. How to quantify the extra bases given against the extra outs generated. I like the -5 arm, as it locks people down, but I'd like the extra outs, too.
And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.
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by AeroDave10 » Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:28 pm
Great points, PKB.
[quote:b5735b8873="PotKettleBlack"]And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.[/quote:b5735b8873]
This statement seems to imply that the ability to steal bases and take extra bases on an OF are relatively similar, which makes sense. Don't know how that affects the Speaker debate, but a very interesting conclusion by PotKettleBlack.
[quote:b5735b8873="PotKettleBlack"]And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.[/quote:b5735b8873]
This statement seems to imply that the ability to steal bases and take extra bases on an OF are relatively similar, which makes sense. Don't know how that affects the Speaker debate, but a very interesting conclusion by PotKettleBlack.
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by PotKettleBlack » Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:17 pm
[quote:acbeff3b9c="AeroDave10"]Great points, PKB.
[quote:acbeff3b9c="PotKettleBlack"]And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.[/quote:acbeff3b9c]
This statement seems to imply that the ability to steal bases and take extra bases on an OF are relatively similar, which makes sense. Don't know how that affects the Speaker debate, but a very interesting conclusion by PotKettleBlack.[/quote:acbeff3b9c]
Well, here's some stuff I know. As run scoring in the real world goes up, the win value of a stolen base goes down. The absolute run value doesn't move that much, but the run price of a win goes up, diluting the value of a stolen base.
The value of first to third is a lot different than a stolen base. Stolen base moves your base-out situation less than a single with a first to third. Let's create a bit of base-out notation, like the boxscores use.
Outs - Runners - Event
0 - 0 - Henderson gets on base
0 - 1 - Henderson steals second
0 - 2
Run expectancy goes up, but not that much. About half of what an out would cost in run expectancy (thus the ~70% number).
First to third goes like this:
0 - 1 - Musial - single
0 - 1,3
Big inning. But how much more value is 0 - 1,3 over 0 - 1,2. That's the question on first to third. I could look this up, but again, as the run scoring in the environment goes up (and it's up in ATG100, moreso in ATG140, and absurdly so in ATG200), the win value of the increase in run expectancy goes down.
I suspect the run expectancy of an individual event goes up with the run scoring environment. Better hitters capitalize on high expectancy situations more often. If 90% of the league is better hitters, then yeah, you'd expect them cash in the runner from third more often, which increases the value of the man on third.
So damn context specific, it's very hard to put a value on arms without a lot of simulation. And since ATG doesn't exist as a standalone computer set... it's everyone's opinion until some better fielding data is available.
[quote:acbeff3b9c="PotKettleBlack"]And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.[/quote:acbeff3b9c]
This statement seems to imply that the ability to steal bases and take extra bases on an OF are relatively similar, which makes sense. Don't know how that affects the Speaker debate, but a very interesting conclusion by PotKettleBlack.[/quote:acbeff3b9c]
Well, here's some stuff I know. As run scoring in the real world goes up, the win value of a stolen base goes down. The absolute run value doesn't move that much, but the run price of a win goes up, diluting the value of a stolen base.
The value of first to third is a lot different than a stolen base. Stolen base moves your base-out situation less than a single with a first to third. Let's create a bit of base-out notation, like the boxscores use.
Outs - Runners - Event
0 - 0 - Henderson gets on base
0 - 1 - Henderson steals second
0 - 2
Run expectancy goes up, but not that much. About half of what an out would cost in run expectancy (thus the ~70% number).
First to third goes like this:
0 - 1 - Musial - single
0 - 1,3
Big inning. But how much more value is 0 - 1,3 over 0 - 1,2. That's the question on first to third. I could look this up, but again, as the run scoring in the environment goes up (and it's up in ATG100, moreso in ATG140, and absurdly so in ATG200), the win value of the increase in run expectancy goes down.
I suspect the run expectancy of an individual event goes up with the run scoring environment. Better hitters capitalize on high expectancy situations more often. If 90% of the league is better hitters, then yeah, you'd expect them cash in the runner from third more often, which increases the value of the man on third.
So damn context specific, it's very hard to put a value on arms without a lot of simulation. And since ATG doesn't exist as a standalone computer set... it's everyone's opinion until some better fielding data is available.
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by JOSEPHKENDALL » Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:06 pm
Max:
You can find what you are looking for on base states here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_secret_recipes_of_the_run_expectancy_matrix/
You can find what you are looking for on base states here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_secret_recipes_of_the_run_expectancy_matrix/
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by JOSEPHKENDALL » Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:12 pm
Does anyone think with the new stats that Bernie will show for defense that we will have enough information to answer these types of questions?
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by Munich_Man » Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:12 pm
[quote:7c8153d1d9="Stormcrow2012"][quote:7c8153d1d9]If you need the arm (-4) and cannot improve noticeably in other areas with extra $$, then I would stay with the 13 mill version. But if you do not need the arm and really need the funds, then go ahead and do it. Not a lot of difference out side of the strong arm, and the cheaper version is a better base stealer too... [/quote:7c8153d1d9]
When you spend for the more expensive Tris Speaker card it is not for his arm (or if it is, you do not know what you are doing) it is for his base stealing. Arm ratings for outfielders are one of the least important ratings and greatly overrated.[/quote:7c8153d1d9]
IMO, base stealing is much less important that a good OF arm rating.
When you spend for the more expensive Tris Speaker card it is not for his arm (or if it is, you do not know what you are doing) it is for his base stealing. Arm ratings for outfielders are one of the least important ratings and greatly overrated.[/quote:7c8153d1d9]
IMO, base stealing is much less important that a good OF arm rating.
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by bkeat23 » Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:14 pm
[quote:b52ffeab4e="Munich_Man"][quote:b52ffeab4e="Stormcrow2012"][quote:b52ffeab4e]If you need the arm (-4) and cannot improve noticeably in other areas with extra $$, then I would stay with the 13 mill version. But if you do not need the arm and really need the funds, then go ahead and do it. Not a lot of difference out side of the strong arm, and the cheaper version is a better base stealer too... [/quote:b52ffeab4e]
When you spend for the more expensive Tris Speaker card it is not for his arm (or if it is, you do not know what you are doing) it is for his base stealing. Arm ratings for outfielders are one of the least important ratings and greatly overrated.[/quote:b52ffeab4e]
IMO, base stealing is much less important that a good OF arm rating.[/quote:b52ffeab4e]
Boldface type should be used on the cards for OF arms -2 or better :D
When you spend for the more expensive Tris Speaker card it is not for his arm (or if it is, you do not know what you are doing) it is for his base stealing. Arm ratings for outfielders are one of the least important ratings and greatly overrated.[/quote:b52ffeab4e]
IMO, base stealing is much less important that a good OF arm rating.[/quote:b52ffeab4e]
Boldface type should be used on the cards for OF arms -2 or better :D
- bkeat23
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Munich_Man » Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:45 pm
[quote:57bcf9a802="bkeat23"][quote:57bcf9a802="Munich_Man"][quote:57bcf9a802="Stormcrow2012"][quote:57bcf9a802]If you need the arm (-4) and cannot improve noticeably in other areas with extra $$, then I would stay with the 13 mill version. But if you do not need the arm and really need the funds, then go ahead and do it. Not a lot of difference out side of the strong arm, and the cheaper version is a better base stealer too... [/quote:57bcf9a802]
When you spend for the more expensive Tris Speaker card it is not for his arm (or if it is, you do not know what you are doing) it is for his base stealing. Arm ratings for outfielders are one of the least important ratings and greatly overrated.[/quote:57bcf9a802]
IMO, base stealing is much less important that a good OF arm rating.[/quote:57bcf9a802]
Boldface type should be used on the cards for OF arms -2 or better :D[/quote:57bcf9a802]
Exactly!! That would fit very well with my card-reading methodology. :D
When you spend for the more expensive Tris Speaker card it is not for his arm (or if it is, you do not know what you are doing) it is for his base stealing. Arm ratings for outfielders are one of the least important ratings and greatly overrated.[/quote:57bcf9a802]
IMO, base stealing is much less important that a good OF arm rating.[/quote:57bcf9a802]
Boldface type should be used on the cards for OF arms -2 or better :D[/quote:57bcf9a802]
Exactly!! That would fit very well with my card-reading methodology. :D
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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