by PotKettleBlack » Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:17 pm
[quote:acbeff3b9c="AeroDave10"]Great points, PKB.
[quote:acbeff3b9c="PotKettleBlack"]And in the ATG100-140-200 run scoring environment, what is the win value of the extra base? Small, in my estimation.[/quote:acbeff3b9c]
This statement seems to imply that the ability to steal bases and take extra bases on an OF are relatively similar, which makes sense. Don't know how that affects the Speaker debate, but a very interesting conclusion by PotKettleBlack.[/quote:acbeff3b9c]
Well, here's some stuff I know. As run scoring in the real world goes up, the win value of a stolen base goes down. The absolute run value doesn't move that much, but the run price of a win goes up, diluting the value of a stolen base.
The value of first to third is a lot different than a stolen base. Stolen base moves your base-out situation less than a single with a first to third. Let's create a bit of base-out notation, like the boxscores use.
Outs - Runners - Event
0 - 0 - Henderson gets on base
0 - 1 - Henderson steals second
0 - 2
Run expectancy goes up, but not that much. About half of what an out would cost in run expectancy (thus the ~70% number).
First to third goes like this:
0 - 1 - Musial - single
0 - 1,3
Big inning. But how much more value is 0 - 1,3 over 0 - 1,2. That's the question on first to third. I could look this up, but again, as the run scoring in the environment goes up (and it's up in ATG100, moreso in ATG140, and absurdly so in ATG200), the win value of the increase in run expectancy goes down.
I suspect the run expectancy of an individual event goes up with the run scoring environment. Better hitters capitalize on high expectancy situations more often. If 90% of the league is better hitters, then yeah, you'd expect them cash in the runner from third more often, which increases the value of the man on third.
So damn context specific, it's very hard to put a value on arms without a lot of simulation. And since ATG doesn't exist as a standalone computer set... it's everyone's opinion until some better fielding data is available.