End of season slump - Part 2

[uvm87]

I just checked and there's been no changes to the team that just passed me. The team in third did make some changes, but has only gained a couple of games. I checked and saw that I was even against the (formerly) #2 team in my division and had a winning record against the #3 and #4 teams. Now I can't beat any of them.

I was in first place with as much as a 9 game lead. My winning % for the first 118 games was .632. Since then, I've been 13-20 (.393 win %). Why in the world would a team just flop that badly? It always seems to happen around the same time. My team may have been playing a little above it's head, based on James' Pythagorean theorem, but nothing warrants a slump like this.

After three seasons, I'm starting to think this is something that is something that might be in the software, maybe in order to maintain interest.

[rburgh]

1. Teams do regress towards the mean as the season progresses. Plus, there are horses for courses - the schedule may randomly have assigned you a string of games against teams you have trouble with.

2. If you took any random league on here, and ran it 10 times, the standard deviation in wins for almost any team would be upwards of 7, which means that 3 of the 10 seasons the team would either win or lose 7 or more games more than its average result. If the SD for a full season is 7, the SD for 118 games is higher - someone with more formal training in statistics can give the right answer.

3. Managers can adjust their teams without necessarily making personnel moves. This is particularly true of teams with a lot of lopsided relief cards.

4. Injuries can play a big part in the game.

5. Team starts winning, keeps winning, wins its division is not news. Team starts winning, builds a comfortable lead, collapses, is newsworthy. Check your perceptions against reality.

[JohnnyBlazers]

I would say regression to the mean - if you have cards that are going above their normal expectation given league context and park, then you can expect a slump at some point. The reverse is true also if your cards are underperforming at some point they will get hot (usually). What is your team pythagorean pct?

All factors considered, if your team is structurally sound, you will go thru a slump at some point. Your team was on a pace for a 103 win season, definitely above avg. If you honestly feel your team is 100 win caliber vs the level of competition then you have bad luck :shock: Other wise, it's regression to the mean dude.

Keep in mind that these are mostly all-star teams you are going against and a decent manager will put together a serviceable team at worst. I'd say the game is largely predicated on luck - you have the get the rolls at critical junctures - they key is offsetting the luck factor with as many positive chances for batters and outs for your pitchers.

[PotKettleBlack]

Regression.
It may not even be your team. The others in the division may have started slow while you've been slow and steady. They may have sprinted at the end.

Happens. More than I'd like to admit to myself. I am anticipating it happening in the experimental concept league I'm in. I have won 48 of 81 games, and cannot figure how, exactly as my run differential is barely above break even and my one run and extra inn. games are about where you'd expect (i.e. break even).

[fraank123]

While I am generally not a conspiracy theorist my own experiences involving late season collapses does make me wonder. Admittedly my sample size/career here at SOM online is limited (23 teams total) but to have 3 teams (13%) suffer very significant droughts to close out seasons and just miss the playoffs (two lost by tiebreakers) seems to be unusual.

Obviously factors mentioned in this thread and other similar threads are the likely reasons for this to have happened but there is still a lingering doubt when I have three teams leading their divisions for a good portion of the season go a combined 2 wins and 28 losses to close out the seasons. One team was up by 7 with 10 games left only to lose 9 of 10 and lose the tiebreaker. Another was also up 9 with 13 left than lost 12 of the last 13 and also lost the tiebreaker. The third team was only up by 4 with 10 left but proceeded to lose the last 10 and finish 4 back and out of the playoffs also.

Potkettleblack hopefully you are correct in your anticipation of faltering in the experimental league, i can use all the help i can get :)

[gfg001]

Are you sure you haven't had a string of away games evening out your schedule? More than once I've built big leads due to lots of home games early , only to see them evaporate as the schedule evens itself out. Conversely, I once had a "69 Mets"-like come from behind championship when about 3/4 of my last 30 games were at home.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:f727b84713="gfg001"]Are you sure you haven't had a string of away games evening out your schedule? More than once I've built big leads due to lots of home games early , only to see them evaporate as the schedule evens itself out. Conversely, I once had a "69 Mets"-like come from behind championship when about 3/4 of my last 30 games were at home.[/quote:f727b84713]

Alternatively, are you in the west and the team that's catching you the West 11 with the really brutal road trip that gets made up with a lot of home games later?

[fraank123]

unfortunately home vs away games at the end of the season doesnt really explain the 3 seperate late slumps i referenced above. the three teams finished a combined 2-14 at home and 0-14 on the road -- (1-2 & 0-7) (1-6 & 0-3) and (0-6 & 0-4).

i'm sure it's all just the rolls of the dice skewing towards the norm over the course of the season to compensate for a few breaks i probably had go my way. especially since two of the teams finished at least 8 games better than the Bill James Pythagorean exp w/l even with the late season slides.

[Honyox R Us]

Most of the time there isn't a logical explanation other than not getting the rolls. I just lost the finals in a league. My team had a 9-3 record against my opponent in the regular season.

I had home field advantage. Mine was small ball, other's was an HR team. Beat me in 6 games and it was a miracle that it went that far because I was behind 3-1 after the first 2 nights. He got the rolls, I didn't. Not saying he didn't deserve to win because he had a great team.

There just isn't any other explanation. Stuff like that used to make me want to pull my hair out but now I just go in thinking I'll lose and then I'm pleasantly surprised if I win...

[Badjam]

I've had collapses exactly like the ones mentioned but I have also came from way behind to squeak into the playoffs. It works both ways. Recently I had two teams in the playoffs at the same time. One team won 99 games and lost to the wild card team in the semis. The other team won two of three the final games of the season to tie for first and win the tiebreaker with 80 wins. That 80 win team won it all.