cheap 2B

[tomwistar]

Just curious ... would you rather use someone like Gantner (or Beckert) at 2b, batting 8th, with the chance that he might hit .270-.280 and extend innings. Or just use someone like Hall, take the great defense, and accept that you're going to have a black hole offensively (to go with the pitcher black hole.) This is an $80 mil league. The rest of the infield is Greenberg, Williams, Wells in a power hitting park.

[motherscratcher]

Maybe it would depend on your bullpen. If you have a weak BP, you might want to go with defense so you are getting the most milage out of your starters. If you have a stronger BP it's maybe not as critical.

I'm not sure how much of an effect it would actually have, though.

[geekor]

[quote:a2d5a66d52="motherscratcher"]Maybe it would depend on your bullpen. If you have a weak BP, you might want to go with defense so you are getting the most milage out of your starters. If you have a stronger BP it's maybe not as critical.

I'm not sure how much of an effect it would actually have, though.[/quote:a2d5a66d52]

I don't even see how this is an issue, same number of X chances regardless :roll:

Seeing as the prices include defense, and you're looking at the same price, the players are essentially equal. I'd just go with what your gut tells you.

[motherscratcher]

I guess I don't understand. Are you saying that how good a guy is on defense doesn't have any effect on your pitchers?

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:aa3634d326="motherscratcher"]I guess I don't understand. Are you saying that how good a guy is on defense doesn't have any effect on your pitchers?[/quote:aa3634d326]

Not exactly.

Since the X-rolls on all pitchers' cards are the same, the defense has the same effect on your pitchers, regardless of quality. That is not the same as no effect, but it is the same as making the pen/starters irrelevant for the sake of this discussion.

One thing to consider: If you want to be in the Tony LaRussa school of management, and double switch with the pitcher position, it might be better to have a second offensive black hole, then a couple good pinch hitters who aren't too unbalanced, then a Harry Lunte type backup who is solid defensively. It would get your bench involved.

If instead you want to be in the Art Howe school of management... better hitter, less bench, sit back and let HAL do his thing.

[motherscratcher]

OK

I guess what I was thinking was this: a worse defender will lead to less batted balls fielded and more errors. This will lead to more batters faced and more pitches thrown. This will lead to pitcher fatigue sooner. This will lead to sooner use of the bullpen.

If the bullpen is good...not a huge problem. If the bullpen is bad...maybe a slight problem.

Is this wrong or does it just not matter? Or both?

[PotKettleBlack]

Batted balls do not all trigger fielding. GB(a) trigger DPs. X-rolls trigger fielding range checks. Errors, I'm not sure about, but I understand that fielding errors happen on X-rolls, while throwing errors happen when throwing.

Given that all X-rolls are the same, range does matter, but what you're talking about is relative quality of pitchers, which is not really a function of skill with the leather of your second baseman. At least as I understand it.

[motherscratcher]

I've only been around here for a year, so it's not like it would be reasonable to expect that I've figured out even the most basic things, right? :oops:

I mean, look how long Eric Wedge has been a manager. And he clearly hasn't figured out a damn thing yet. Who knows, I might win manager of the year.

[Measured Mayhem]

Mother Scratcher is right in theory. While X rolls are the same for each pitcher and thus "X attempt failures" by fielders occur at the same rate for all pitchers they do not AFFECT all pitchers the same. What does differ is the ability of the pitcher to STRAND those runners that reach on x rolls. The worse the pitcher (especially if worse on giving up homers) the more critical the fielder is. For example, the more base runners a pitcher allows, the higher the percentage of them will score, therefore x failures with a bad pitcher on the mound score far more. Not only does that individual runner score more there is also a continuing exponential effect on runs. That "failed out" lets another batter hit who can also avoid an out which could lead to another batter hitting and so on. This continuing effect hurts bad pitchers with high obp against more as the batters who get to hit as a result of the failed out are more likely to get on themselves. For example if greg maddux allows runners on at a 20% rate, there is only a 20% chance the extra hitter gets on and a 4% that 2 extra hitters get on and then .8% that three extra hitters reach and so on. With a .5 scrub that allows 50% of hitters to reach base it would be 50% for 1 to reach, 25% for two, and 12.5% for three. Look at that large difference in chance for an x attempt to lead to a big inning (3 extra base runners) 12.5% vs. 0.8%

Also failed defensive x chances really hurt low obp high hr pitchers as it undoes home run mitigation also known in the SABR community as the "Johan Santana Effect" where very low obp against exponentially decreases the harm of home runs.

What Mother Scratcher was specifically talking about was how poor fielders can hurt Starter reliant teams with a weak bullpen. This is true. Poor fielders lead to more base runners which leads to more pitches which leads to quicker fatigue and more bullpen innings. With bad relievers more bullpen innings hurt your team.

[tomwistar]

terrific analysis from you guys ... thanks!