who would you start

[ROBERTLATORRE]

[quote:10f4fe0358="Hackdog99"]the fielding chart does vary by pitcher. Some pitchers can have very few GB2B(X)'s. I am trying to build a roster now around a 2B and some of my pitcher's have 10 dice rolls on each side going to 2B and some have between 2 and 5.[/quote:10f4fe0358]

Hackdog, are you multiplying out the chances? i.e an x on a 7 is "6 chances", an x on a 3 is "2 chances". Can you give me the pitchers you are looking at? I based a lot of my analysis on a relatively small variance of pitcher to pitcher chances. As of a few years ago, it was almost always "7 chances" for a SS and "6 chances" for a 2B on each side of the pitcher card. I think this is a constant out of Glen Head every year.

[ROBERTLATORRE]

[quote:f552c9baf0="gt8017b"]I agree that the X chances are fixed for ALL pitcher cards.

By my formulas based on the X chance charts, I think there is an equivalent of about 0.020 hitting OPS in favor of the 4e16 2B over the 3e30 SS (based mostly on the more opportunities). So, all things equal in hitting for the defensive replacements, that would say to use the bad-D 2B instead of the bad-D SS, but the effect is small.[/quote:f552c9baf0]

gt8017b, would like to hear how you calculate this!!! can we discuss off thread? My math is not as strong as it ways when I was younger LOL

[justin5]

This is all based on a fixed number of X chances from pitchers cards... Which I'm 99.9% sure of.

50% of the chances comes from a given hitter's card and there are 9 hitters. So, roughly speaking, 5.56% (50%/9) of chances come from a given hitters card. I understand a leadoff hitter comes up more than a #9 hitter, but *on average* it's 5.56% of all chances are a given hitter's card.

Also, for a SS, with 7 given chances of a SS X chance coming up, there is a 3.24% (7/216) chance of fielding result being rolled. For a 2B, it's 2.78% (6/216).

So, in relation to how often their *hitting* card comes up vs the fielding OPS allowed (which is the same numbers as you used), you need to relate them by the occurrence rate. For SS, it's 3.24/5.56 = 0.583 conversion factor. For 2B, it's 2.78/5.56 = 0.5. There's some rounding in there and it's easier for me to remember 0.585, so that's a slight error in my memory when I posted before.

Let me know if you think that's in error. I try to convert and think of everything in terms of hitters OPS since that's what you generally see listed.

[ROBERTLATORRE]

[quote:f8526e8820="gt8017b"]Let me know if you think that's in error. I try to convert and think of everything in terms of hitters OPS since that's what you generally see listed.[/quote:f8526e8820]

GT, never mind, your calcs are correct, I grabbed the wrong column to paste into the thread. Icalc it the exact same way.

Strike #2 today.

I need to remember my new Rule #1 - [b:f8526e8820]DO NOT POST ON THE SOM BOARDS WHILE ON A CONFERENCE CALL![/b:f8526e8820]