Let's get the Champions League Off the Ground-check in here
by MARCPELLETIER » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:51 pm
[quote:211a7b9722]yep, sucks luckyman. looks like i lost the coin-flip that is called playoffs.[/quote:211a7b9722]
well, like I said early in the season, there is a part of luck in playoffs, no doubt about that, but it is also another season.
Having 5 SPs and a deep bullpen is by far the most efficient pitching set-up during the season (particularly if you play in a hitter stadium), but it's one of the least efficient pitching set-up in playoffs. It is less efficient because, with all the rest, the best relievers can pitch up to four games out of five, making thus a deep bullpen as potentially overpaid. And of course, the absence of a real *SP anchor prevents one from having some potential strong outings for games 1 and 5.
But shall one play for the season or for the playoffs?
cristano kept Schmidt in part because he couldn't trade him, and in part in hope that he makes the playoffs. But he didn't make it.
You made the playoffs. But you came up short in the first game with your SP lasting 2.1 innigns.
well, like I said early in the season, there is a part of luck in playoffs, no doubt about that, but it is also another season.
Having 5 SPs and a deep bullpen is by far the most efficient pitching set-up during the season (particularly if you play in a hitter stadium), but it's one of the least efficient pitching set-up in playoffs. It is less efficient because, with all the rest, the best relievers can pitch up to four games out of five, making thus a deep bullpen as potentially overpaid. And of course, the absence of a real *SP anchor prevents one from having some potential strong outings for games 1 and 5.
But shall one play for the season or for the playoffs?
cristano kept Schmidt in part because he couldn't trade him, and in part in hope that he makes the playoffs. But he didn't make it.
You made the playoffs. But you came up short in the first game with your SP lasting 2.1 innigns.
- MARCPELLETIER
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by spicki17 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:07 pm
lucky - im not saying a * doesnt better help someone win playoffs, but i dont get how if you have 2 relatively equal teams how it even remotely matters. playoffs (especially first round) are a coin-flip. i have pitched jimmy gobble in game 5 of the first round and beaten rojo by 10 runs (no exaggeration). if the standard deviation for the regular season means that a team that averages 85 wins can be +/- 15, then what is the standard deviation or even amount that a * affects playoffs?
here's the other thing. in a case like uncle, he has all *'s (if i remember correctly), so it doesnt quite help him as much having schilling go 1 and 5 (versus zambrano, or whoever his 2 is). in your case, having santana go 1 and 5 helps, but it also means that you are playing with a $70.5M team in games 2, 3, and 4, giving the opponent the upperhand in 3 of the 5 games.
just something to think about. either way, im not writing this because i am upset (im not gonna say i wouldnt like to win this), but after a 95 win team, i am more than thrilled with this season.
good luck to the uncle, lucky, and ET in the rest of playoffs.
here's the other thing. in a case like uncle, he has all *'s (if i remember correctly), so it doesnt quite help him as much having schilling go 1 and 5 (versus zambrano, or whoever his 2 is). in your case, having santana go 1 and 5 helps, but it also means that you are playing with a $70.5M team in games 2, 3, and 4, giving the opponent the upperhand in 3 of the 5 games.
just something to think about. either way, im not writing this because i am upset (im not gonna say i wouldnt like to win this), but after a 95 win team, i am more than thrilled with this season.
good luck to the uncle, lucky, and ET in the rest of playoffs.
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by MARCPELLETIER » Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:56 pm
Oh, and please believe me, I am not counting you out of the picture yet. Now that you are playing ubill's #3 and #4, you have all the chances to tie it up.
(and by the way, the variance for the wins is usually considered +/- 8 wins....+/- 15 is rather the confidence intervals that you get it right 19 times out of 20).
To some extent, I understand your point, and you are right: we all have lost three straight games at some point of the season. But the effect is not negligeable.
If Santana throws twice in this series, his real playoff value (considering that 9.45M is his real season value) will be 16.63M. Of course, there might not be a fifth game, but contrary to what people think, the chances to have a 3-games, 4-games or 5-games series is NOT 33%/33%/33% but rather (all things being equal) 25%/33%/42%. So considering a 42% chance to have a 5th game, the real playoff value of Santana is 12.53M.
Of course, I should consider that I now have a 5th starter that will go in the bullpen, which will decreases his value, which, on the other hand, will increase the value of the bullpen...anyway it becomes quite complicated, but the 3M increase as a team with Santana potentially pitching twice is pretty reliable.
The same argument goes for the best reliever. The best reliever is potentially available up to 4 games out of 5 instead of 2 games out of 3. If the team has a cheap #3 and a cheap #4, the increase of value for the bullpen could go up to 1.5M.
As for injuries, it's a complicated story, but if you start your playoffs all healthy, chances are that your injury-prone players will play more games in the playoffs than expected. For a player like Walker, to use him as an example, he is getting paid 5.82M because it is assumed that he's gonna miss 45-50 games or so. If he stays healthy for this series, his real playoff value (for this series) will be 8.33M. That's a 2.5M increase right there.
If you take it all together, I would say that my team has an increased value of about 10M for this first series, and a little bit less, perhaps 5M, for the Finals (due to the lesser impact of Santana, and the increase chances of having a key player injured). But I don't consider 10M as negligeable, of course.
As you can imagine, though, there was a seasonal price for doing all this. When Burke moved to rf to replace an injured Walker for three games (something that shouldn't happen in the day-to-day management of the playoffs), the value of my team took a hit. I lost value for all the games my non-*SP skipped to let Santana pitched. I lost value by having Embree take 110 innings. Etc. Etc.
(and by the way, the variance for the wins is usually considered +/- 8 wins....+/- 15 is rather the confidence intervals that you get it right 19 times out of 20).
To some extent, I understand your point, and you are right: we all have lost three straight games at some point of the season. But the effect is not negligeable.
If Santana throws twice in this series, his real playoff value (considering that 9.45M is his real season value) will be 16.63M. Of course, there might not be a fifth game, but contrary to what people think, the chances to have a 3-games, 4-games or 5-games series is NOT 33%/33%/33% but rather (all things being equal) 25%/33%/42%. So considering a 42% chance to have a 5th game, the real playoff value of Santana is 12.53M.
Of course, I should consider that I now have a 5th starter that will go in the bullpen, which will decreases his value, which, on the other hand, will increase the value of the bullpen...anyway it becomes quite complicated, but the 3M increase as a team with Santana potentially pitching twice is pretty reliable.
The same argument goes for the best reliever. The best reliever is potentially available up to 4 games out of 5 instead of 2 games out of 3. If the team has a cheap #3 and a cheap #4, the increase of value for the bullpen could go up to 1.5M.
As for injuries, it's a complicated story, but if you start your playoffs all healthy, chances are that your injury-prone players will play more games in the playoffs than expected. For a player like Walker, to use him as an example, he is getting paid 5.82M because it is assumed that he's gonna miss 45-50 games or so. If he stays healthy for this series, his real playoff value (for this series) will be 8.33M. That's a 2.5M increase right there.
If you take it all together, I would say that my team has an increased value of about 10M for this first series, and a little bit less, perhaps 5M, for the Finals (due to the lesser impact of Santana, and the increase chances of having a key player injured). But I don't consider 10M as negligeable, of course.
As you can imagine, though, there was a seasonal price for doing all this. When Burke moved to rf to replace an injured Walker for three games (something that shouldn't happen in the day-to-day management of the playoffs), the value of my team took a hit. I lost value for all the games my non-*SP skipped to let Santana pitched. I lost value by having Embree take 110 innings. Etc. Etc.
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by MARCPELLETIER » Tue Mar 28, 2006 8:06 pm
[quote:30eafb5041]Oh, and please believe me, I am not counting you out of the picture yet. Now that you are playing ubill's #3 and #4, you have all the chances to tie it up.
[/quote:30eafb5041]
:oops: Perhaps you'll get more success by attacking uncleny's #3-#4
Also, I would like to change my conclusion. I shouldn't say that my team increased of 10M value now that it is in a 3-5 series. Because in fact, I have some dead wood in my starting rotation that I bought specifically to beat kaviksdad and make sure I was making the playoffs.
I should rather said that an injury-prone team that is built around a top-notch *SP and a top-notch reliever has the potential to increase its value up to 10M about, although in my specific case, I did not achieve this---but I do feel that my team is much better now than in the season.
Anyway, all the bubblish words, but I still might get a seat out of the playoffs as soon as tonight.
[/quote:30eafb5041]
:oops: Perhaps you'll get more success by attacking uncleny's #3-#4
Also, I would like to change my conclusion. I shouldn't say that my team increased of 10M value now that it is in a 3-5 series. Because in fact, I have some dead wood in my starting rotation that I bought specifically to beat kaviksdad and make sure I was making the playoffs.
I should rather said that an injury-prone team that is built around a top-notch *SP and a top-notch reliever has the potential to increase its value up to 10M about, although in my specific case, I did not achieve this---but I do feel that my team is much better now than in the season.
Anyway, all the bubblish words, but I still might get a seat out of the playoffs as soon as tonight.
- MARCPELLETIER
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by MARCPELLETIER » Tue Mar 28, 2006 8:45 pm
I just talked-emailed someone who reminded me of something.
One example actually, showing that setting the appropriate line-up for the playoffs (disregarding the season) has a very important impact came from the "series" format that TSN put in place some years ago (two years ago, maybe?). The format was: play vs another player in a 4-7 series.
There was one Strat player who set his line-up to the most extreme advantage, which, for a 4/7 series, consisted in:
The best 2 non-*SP (for this year, would be Od. Perez and Wright)
3 x 0.5M non-*SP
2 best RP
3 cheap RP
and he won the "Tour" championship in that format.
One example actually, showing that setting the appropriate line-up for the playoffs (disregarding the season) has a very important impact came from the "series" format that TSN put in place some years ago (two years ago, maybe?). The format was: play vs another player in a 4-7 series.
There was one Strat player who set his line-up to the most extreme advantage, which, for a 4/7 series, consisted in:
The best 2 non-*SP (for this year, would be Od. Perez and Wright)
3 x 0.5M non-*SP
2 best RP
3 cheap RP
and he won the "Tour" championship in that format.
- MARCPELLETIER
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by MARCPELLETIER » Wed Mar 29, 2006 1:25 pm
Congrats spicki for your outstanding prestance.
Congrats uncleny for heading to the finals.
To all strat amators, next game is a don't miss: CY young Sheets vs Santana in low-hitting park for a game 5 set-up.
Go JJOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNN!!!
Congrats uncleny for heading to the finals.
To all strat amators, next game is a don't miss: CY young Sheets vs Santana in low-hitting park for a game 5 set-up.
Go JJOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNN!!!
- MARCPELLETIER
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by mesquiton » Wed Mar 29, 2006 11:20 pm
well, my boys were 12-12 against yours (and 27-18 against the other playoff teams!)...one more damn win out of 162 and it coulda been me knocked out in the short series! :lol:
good luck to uncle, ET and marcus...and congrats, you all deserve it almost as much as spicki and me, dammit.... :lol:
thanks all, a fine group of gentlemen, and the best (and toughest) league i've ever been in!
mesq, the best of the rest! 8)
good luck to uncle, ET and marcus...and congrats, you all deserve it almost as much as spicki and me, dammit.... :lol:
thanks all, a fine group of gentlemen, and the best (and toughest) league i've ever been in!
mesq, the best of the rest! 8)
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by MARCPELLETIER » Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:52 am
Semi-Finals, game 5: A classic. Simply a classic.
Johan Santana took a no-hitter into the 6th inning as the Montreal
Final_poutine defeated the Double Nickels by a score of 1 to 0 at Kauffman
Stadium.
DoubleNickel had a chance to come back in the 9th but they came up
short. Lane started the inning with a walk, and Roberts followed with a double. Even though there was no out, Lane was pushed to the plate...but got retired at the plate.
I would have loved to have the die results of this one.
Santana has no double on his card, so the double must have been on Roberts' card. Roberts has almost 5 chances of double to cf (Pierre, +3), 2.4 chances of double to lf (Figgins, +1), and 3 chances of double to rf (Walker, -4), so it's tough to say who had the assist. Not sure if Lane was held either, but if he wasn't, his chances to be safe were 1-14 plus or minus the adjustment of my fielder (1-17 if it were hit to Pierre, 1-15 to Figgins, 1-10 to Walker), and Burke is only an average catcher (block rating-3). If the safe chances were indeed 1-17, then I guess Hal made the right choice. Especially if you consider that Roberts was sent to third on the same move (safe chance 1-10 had the throw been to third), and considering that DoubleNickel had used Hoffman, Harper, Howry AND Marte in both game 3 and game 4, while my own bullpen was relatively fresh, especially Foulke. So DoubleNickel couldn't afford to have a long overtime.
Anyway, with Roberts on third, and Izturis (bunting A, among the leaders in sacrifice bunts this year) facing Santana, DoubleNickel's Hal let Izturis hit instead of squeeze. Ground out, and no attempts of Roberts--an excellent runner--- to go home. Juan Castro pinch-hit Burroghs and struck out.
Another key moment was this one here:
*** TOP OF INNING 7 ***
0 J.Lane 2 Fly Out b-0
1 B.Roberts 6 Walk b-1
1 1 C.Izturis 3 Force Play 1-o b-1
2 1 S.Burroughs 1 Wild Pitch 1-2
2 2 S.Burroughs 1 HBP b-1
2 12 J.Bagwell 4 Walk 2-3 1-2 b-1
2 123 M.Redmond 5 Strike Out b-0
Two key notes here. The obvious: Redmond is not IRod. I would have not liked to see IRod with bases loaded, that for sure!!! It sure was a lucky break for my team to not face IRod.
A second, more hidden fact: If Burroughs receives a walk instead of a hbp, then Santana would have turned tired after Bagwell's walk. So I would have probably Foulke pitch the 7th, the 8th, and start the 9th, and then, who knows what would have happened. Second lucky break for my team.
As for my lonely run, it involved---again--my lucky star, Figgins. He hit an rbi, 2-out single** in the 2nd.
Staying home to face the Corrivals. Go Poutine!!!
Johan Santana took a no-hitter into the 6th inning as the Montreal
Final_poutine defeated the Double Nickels by a score of 1 to 0 at Kauffman
Stadium.
DoubleNickel had a chance to come back in the 9th but they came up
short. Lane started the inning with a walk, and Roberts followed with a double. Even though there was no out, Lane was pushed to the plate...but got retired at the plate.
I would have loved to have the die results of this one.
Santana has no double on his card, so the double must have been on Roberts' card. Roberts has almost 5 chances of double to cf (Pierre, +3), 2.4 chances of double to lf (Figgins, +1), and 3 chances of double to rf (Walker, -4), so it's tough to say who had the assist. Not sure if Lane was held either, but if he wasn't, his chances to be safe were 1-14 plus or minus the adjustment of my fielder (1-17 if it were hit to Pierre, 1-15 to Figgins, 1-10 to Walker), and Burke is only an average catcher (block rating-3). If the safe chances were indeed 1-17, then I guess Hal made the right choice. Especially if you consider that Roberts was sent to third on the same move (safe chance 1-10 had the throw been to third), and considering that DoubleNickel had used Hoffman, Harper, Howry AND Marte in both game 3 and game 4, while my own bullpen was relatively fresh, especially Foulke. So DoubleNickel couldn't afford to have a long overtime.
Anyway, with Roberts on third, and Izturis (bunting A, among the leaders in sacrifice bunts this year) facing Santana, DoubleNickel's Hal let Izturis hit instead of squeeze. Ground out, and no attempts of Roberts--an excellent runner--- to go home. Juan Castro pinch-hit Burroghs and struck out.
Another key moment was this one here:
*** TOP OF INNING 7 ***
0 J.Lane 2 Fly Out b-0
1 B.Roberts 6 Walk b-1
1 1 C.Izturis 3 Force Play 1-o b-1
2 1 S.Burroughs 1 Wild Pitch 1-2
2 2 S.Burroughs 1 HBP b-1
2 12 J.Bagwell 4 Walk 2-3 1-2 b-1
2 123 M.Redmond 5 Strike Out b-0
Two key notes here. The obvious: Redmond is not IRod. I would have not liked to see IRod with bases loaded, that for sure!!! It sure was a lucky break for my team to not face IRod.
A second, more hidden fact: If Burroughs receives a walk instead of a hbp, then Santana would have turned tired after Bagwell's walk. So I would have probably Foulke pitch the 7th, the 8th, and start the 9th, and then, who knows what would have happened. Second lucky break for my team.
As for my lonely run, it involved---again--my lucky star, Figgins. He hit an rbi, 2-out single** in the 2nd.
Staying home to face the Corrivals. Go Poutine!!!
- MARCPELLETIER
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