Base Running Question

[Jimbo123]

Is there a formula for determinining how the base running strategy settings work?

I've been routinely having fairly fast players (1-14 running speed; 1-16 with 2 outs) not trying to score from second on a single with two outs in close games. (These are not situtations where there's been a "Single *" roll either.) Generally, I've been putting the settings on regular or aggressive base running. It's getting frustrating watching a reasonably fast guy get held up at third with two outs when he represents the the tying or go ahead run, especially when your offense is in a drought. What ever happended to running on anything when there are two outs?

I am apprehensive to put the setting on aggressive because I'm pretty sure I'll just run myself out of innings. It doesn't seem that, with respect to base running decisions, HAL makes adjustments depending on inning and score of the game?

Any suggetions would be appreciated.

[MrHacktastic]

[quote:4cd93bd768="Jimbo123"]Is there a formula for determinining how the base running strategy settings work?

I've been routinely having fairly fast players (1-14 running speed; 1-16 with 2 outs) not trying to score from second on a single with two outs in close games. (These are not situtations where there's been a "Single *" roll either.) Generally, I've been putting the settings on regular or aggressive base running. It's getting frustrating watching a reasonably fast guy get held up at third with two outs when he represents the the tying or go ahead run, especially when your offense is in a drought. What ever happended to running on anything when there are two outs?

I am apprehensive to put the setting on aggressive because I'm pretty sure I'll just run myself out of innings. It doesn't seem that, with respect to base running decisions, HAL makes adjustments depending on inning and score of the game?

Any suggestions would be appreciated.[/quote:4cd93bd768]

I struggle with the same thing and I don't have any answers for it yet. The base running settings don't work for me. I think about it the same way you do where I don't want to run myself out of innings. I play against people who run into 4 or 5 outs a game and sometimes more. That can be up to two full innings you don't get to hit.

That said I hate having Rickey Henderson not score from second on a single or even try to when I'm down by one in the 8th inning. Then the very next game Gary Carter gets thrown out going 1st to 3rd with 2 outs late in a game when there was no point in even trying to go to 3rd.

I believe settings for baserunning and in particular SB's need to be much more detailed as far as what situations I want to be aggressive in.

[tcochran]

I typically have fast teams, with high SB totals and 70-75% successful steals. What seems to work is to set the individual player steal settings based on their abilities (A/B steal more, etc.) and then adjust the steal and run settings each night, based on the opponent.

If the C have good arms and/or the P have good hold ratings, I go with normal steals. If the OF have good arms, I go normal there, too. If they don't, then it's off to the races.

I play aggressive/aggressive whenever possible and occasionally bump up to very aggressive if the opponent capabilities are poor.

[apolivka]

I have not seen very much evidence that base running is "situational", in that HAL gets more aggressive late in tie/close games. It really appears to me that the base running setting is the same for the entire game, and I agree it is really frustrating to see a fast runner held up at 3rd in the 10 inning!

I do see evidence that with 2 outs (in any inning) that HAL does appear to be a bit more aggressive, but that's probably due more to a slightly better safe/out probability than an adjustment HAL is making based on the situation.

But, that being said, I've always said that the base running setting really should be based on the value of a single run for your team/park, rather than anything to do with team speed. If you have good team offense, or hit a good number or HRs, I always set that at conservative or even very conservative. It's only with weak offensive teams (like in the bottom 4 or so teams in league offense) that play in tons of really tight, low scoring games, that hit very few HRs where I think it pays to go aggressive.

Note also: Base stealing is an entirely different animal, and depending on my team I might go nuts stealing, but still have conservative base running.

[tcochran]

[quote:74cc46861e="Hackdog99"] I play against people who run into 4 or 5 outs a game and sometimes more. That can be up to two full innings you don't get to hit. [/quote:74cc46861e]

I often have my guys run pretty aggressively, if the other team does not have strong arms in the outfield. What does it look like in the box score if they run themselves into outs?

[tony best]

Probably a dumb question

Why adjust base running depending on outfield arms? Won`t HAL automatically adjust due to the different numbers? Does not HAL base his decesions on baserunner numbers compared to outfield arm numbers? Thus aggressive runners might advance on 1-12 while normal might advance on 1-14. The good outfielders would just stop advances and actually throw out FEWER runners. Am I incorrect?

[coyote303]

[quote:74441f9652="tonysbest"]Probably a dumb question

Why adjust base running depending on outfield arms? Won`t HAL automatically adjust due to the different numbers? Does not HAL base his decesions on baserunner numbers compared to outfield arm numbers? Thus aggressive runners might advance on 1-12 while normal might advance on 1-14. The good outfielders would just stop advances and actually throw out FEWER runners. Am I incorrect?[/quote:74441f9652]

While there are dumb questions in the world (don't believe anyone who tells you otherwise!), this is not one.

IMHO, there is no reason to adjust baserunning based on outfielders' arms. The only reason I might adjust it is based on ballpark. For example, I might not want to run aggressively at Coors Field.

[tcochran]

Continuing along the "I hope this is not a dumb question" path...

a) Why would a CF with a -5 arm not be more dangerous to base runners than a CF with a +1 arm?

b) Are the bases further apart at Coors? Why change base running settings based on stadium?

[Jimbo123]

I think what he's saying is that you have a much better chance of hitting a home run at Coors; therefore, he'll take less chances of gettting a runner thrown out trying to advance in the hope of having more runners on base when one of his hitters blast one out of the park. Sort of the Earl Weaver theory of baseball -- play for the three run homer.

[tcochran]

[quote:5c4df9041b="Jimbo123"]I think what he's saying is that you have a much better chance of hitting a home run at Coors; therefore, he'll take less chances of gettting a runner thrown out trying to advance in the hope of having more runners on base when one of his hitters blast one out of the park. Sort of the Earl Weaver theory of baseball -- play for the three run homer.[/quote:5c4df9041b]

OK, I got that one now. I tend to play fast, high OBP teams, so that never occurred to me (doesn't apply to them).

Anybody got an answer on the relative value of the OF arms?