Wacko HAL substitution

[tcochran]

In 2010 team, I have Ruiz catching with Posada as backup. And then Posada at DH vs. LHP with Sean Rodriguez as backup.

Ruiz is injured in game 78, so in game 79 HAL puts Sean Rodriguez in at C, leaving Posada as DH.

WTF?!?

[Valen]

HAL looks at filling in for injured catcher Ruiz. Sees Posada as backup. Then sees he is in starting lineup already and thus unabailable for catching. So he moves to the next best option.

[elpasopesos]

I learned this lesson too don't DH your back up catcher

[zonachoke]

[quote:790fed0f51]I learned this lesson too don't DH your back up catcher[/quote:790fed0f51]

... unless you have a 3rd catcher.

[zonachoke]

My bullpen (SOMO 2012) is:
[code:1:98e3109a31]
Capuano, Chris L S6/R3 3L 0.53M
Hanrahan, Joel R R1/C6 1L 3.66M
Sale, Chris L R2/C3 E 3.55M
Ramos, Cesar L R1 E 1.34M
Frieri, Ernesto R R2 3R 0.77M
Gonzalez, Mike L R1/C0 8L 0.50M[/code:1:98e3109a31]

My linescores in Games 40 & 41 were as follows:
[b:98e3109a31]40[/b:98e3109a31]
[code:1:98e3109a31]
C.Carpenter WIN(4-5) 6 10 1 1 1 2 0 113 3.66
C.Sale HOLD(3rd) 1 2/3 1 2 2 2 0 0 39 4.72
J.Hanrahan SAVE(2nd) 1 1/3 2 0 0 0 1 0 19 3.24[/code:1:98e3109a31]
[b:98e3109a31]41[/b:98e3109a31]
[code:1:98e3109a31]
R.Romero 7 2/3 9 2 2 1 5 1 118 2.12
E.Frieri WIN(3-0) 0 1/3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6.55
J.Hanrahan SAVE(3rd) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 16 3.06[/code:1:98e3109a31]

So in Game 42, up by a run on the road going into the bottom of the 9th with C.Sale having entered the game with 1 out in the 7th, what does HAL do?!?:
[code:1:98e3109a31]
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 9 ***
0 M.Montero 2-6 Fly Out (LF) b-0 F9
1 C.Jones 1-6 Walk b-1 F3
SUBSTITUTE P - Mike Gonzalez
SUBSTITUTE PR- Manny Burriss
1 1 N.Cruz 2-7 Single (CF) 1-3 b-1 F2
1 1 3 Stolen Base 1-2 F1
1 23 C.Lee Int Walk b-1 F1
1 123 E.Renteria 2-8 Single (CF) 3-H 2-H 1-3 b-1 F0[/code:1:98e3109a31]
HAL put in Gonzalez, an 8L lefty priced appropriately at 0.50M, with Cruz, Lee, and Renteria due up... all of whom are all RH batters, with balance ratings of 5L, 6L, and 3L respectively.
Based on having pitched in Games 40 & 41, Hanrahan would not have been called upon. But Ramos, Frieri, and Capuano would have been available... and all (especially Frieri) are better vs. RH than Gonzalez.

The only consideration in favor of HAL's decision is that the game was in a save situation, and Gonzalez has a C0 closer rating, while none of those other relievers have a C rating. But... seriously HAL... a C0 is presumed to come into a save situation "as if they are fatigued"... and so is a reliever who has no C rating, so there's no real benefit here. Even if an unrated closer endures a slightly-worse penalty than a C0, the additional penalty could not be so bad as to give an 8L, 0.50M LHP a better chance against Cruz, Lee and Renteria than a 3R, 0.77M RHP.

[coyote303]

This is why I never have my setup man be my backup closer. Also, I like to have a really cheap closer (at least C3) on the roster that I use as a backup closer (and also serve as backup mop up). A bad real closer is better than a so-so noncloser at F0 in a closer situation. Having a cheap backup closer can also save the day (literally and figuratively) in extra-inning games when you are the visiting team.

The super-reliever camp has a different strategy to counter what you ran into.

[zonachoke]

coyote, I understand your stratagy.

I also think that, given a choice among Capuano, Ramos, Gonzalez, or Frieri in the situation I described above (having to make a pitching change; 3 RH batters due up who are, at best, mortals against RHP; no one on the bench who is very good against RHP), 30 of 30 MLB managers would've brought in Frieri instead of Gonzalez in that situation (regardless of whether Frieri had closed games before).

If HAL won't make a decision that 30 MLB managers would, HAL needs to change.

[coyote303]

[quote:7c27008f99="zonachoke"]coyote, I understand your stratagy.

I also think that, given a choice among Capuano, Ramos, Gonzalez, or Frieri in the situation I described above (having to make a pitching change; 3 RH batters due up who are, at best, mortals against RHP; no one on the bench who is very good against RHP), 30 of 30 MLB managers would've brought in Frieri instead of Gonzalez in that situation (regardless of whether Frieri had closed games before).

If HAL won't make a decision that 30 MLB managers would, HAL needs to change.[/quote:7c27008f99]

I doubt HAL looks more than one batter ahead. But the real problem is SOM's closer rule. The rule is good at forcing managers to use closers (and nonclosers) realistically. However, it is (IMHO) unrealistically harsh on nonclosers pitching in a closing situation.

If HAL was more sophisticated (programmed to look ahead) and if HAL wasn't going out of "his" way to avoid bringing in a noncloser with his F0 rating, then you would have excellent points.

I've lost too many extra-inning games because I didn't have a closer left to close out a game after I've taken a lead in the top half of the inning. If I were a real-life manager, my suggested strategy in my previous post would be unnecessary.

[apolivka]

One critical detail here, however, is that you have a .50 pitcher on your roster with a closer rating. On general principle I would avoid that like the plague. If you want a "situational lefty", don't get one with a closer rating.

That particular situation will guarantee that Gonzalez will try to close out that game. Hanrahan pitched 2 previous games so was unavailable. Sale was down to F3 so he should be taken out. 100% of the time, HAL will put in then next best guy with a closer rating. (because, indirectly, you told him to by having a 3rd "closer" on your team)

[zonachoke]

What I think I'll try is to set my LH specialist role ahead of my setup role in the pecking order. That way, Gonzalez will be used ahead of my setup man or closer... and if Gonzalez and Sale have been used, and Hanrahan is unavailable, HAL will just have to make do with what's left.

Gonzalez is good vs. LH batters, so it won't be for naught.