by ArrylT » Sun Jun 03, 2012 10:42 am
The likelyhood of Beltre rolling every die roll on his card seems very improbable to me.
The likelyhood of Beltre facing RH pitchers who had LH ratings like 3L, 4L to face a LH lineup in a sorta LH friendly park - seems much more probable. Or facing a LH specialist left in too long after being put in to face Ortiz/Presley, also seems more probable.
Furthermore, even though Beltre has slightly more hit chances vs RHP than LHP - that hit chance comes to about .260 So not only would Beltre have to get a ton of the rolls vs. RH, they would also have to be rolled on the right part of his card more often than not.
Rather, if Beltre was lucky, it was in that he got enough rolls on RH pitcher cards who were LH strong. A good example being Game 161 vs. B. Morrow of Stoneys Phanatics. Morrow gives up a very nice .316 OAVG against RH Bats. Beltre went 3-4 that game.
But if you wish to believe Beltres success was by rolling 100% on his card, and had nothing to do with where he was in my lineup or what pitchers he faced - feel free. I cannot stop you from being wrong.
8-)