BP Effects, so overrated they're underrated, and Lamarr Hoyt

[Jablowmi]

I pulled this message from another thread b/c I wanted to see what others felt (it was buried in the other thread). I commented that for the 80s game, I think the BP factor re: pitchers is a little overrated. More generally, though, I think people sometimes overrate the affect of a ballpark on a player. I've received several trade responses where the player says "so and so doesn't fit in my ballpark" despite the fact that certain players, Tim Raines for example, fit pretty good in any park!

Here was my message in response to a comment that Lamarr will get killed in the Kingdome (interested to hear people's thoughts):

If you get a pitcher's good card, he'll do well in any park. Plus, the fact that a guy like Hoyt has a lot of BPHRs overall doesn't mean he has a lot on his "good" seasons. For example, in 1985, Lamarr's #s were 3.47/1.09. Against RH, he has 1 BPHR chance (6/12) and against LH, he has 3 chances (6/11 and 6/12). Not bad.

In my last completed season, he went 24-10 in Wrigley with 4.45/1.43. I had his 1985 card.

In a season that's ending tonight, I have Lamarr in Jack Murphy and he's 16-12 with 4.45/1.13 despite giving up 53 HRs. I don't think you can safely categorize pitchers into HR vs. not HR in the 80s - it's not ATG.




[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=71620[/url]

[Jablowmi]

[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/playoffs/team_other.html?user_id=70680&stats=sim[/url]

[T.Richardson]

Since you don't know exactly what card you have and pitchers especially vary a lot from year to year what kind of park the tend to fit I agree. That being said I am always leery if I am playing in a hitters park to trade for a pitcher that has been performing well in a pitchers park.

[yak1407]

Thank you Jawblomi.
I've been wrestling all day with my decision to drop Lamar Hoyt and I've finally seen the light.
I brought him back and I'll take my chances with him in the Kingdome.

[AdamKatz]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=54919

Hoyt probably is the perfect example for this discussion. If you are playing in a hitters park and get 85, great. If you get 83, which is his "best year" he is going to give out a lot of HRs. BP HRs on a 4 and a 9. His Whip will still be excellent so, hopefully they are alot of solo HRs and you will be keeping him anyway. 82 will actually be pretty good too -not many BPHRs but a 6R year. 1.24 Whip and 3.53 is probably still above average what you can expect from a pitcher. 84 or 86 will lead to quick drops. So in whole, one great year, two good years and 2 unplayable years. A good deal for 4 million but 2 unplayable years (maybe 84 is playable but I think not)

However, if you play Hoyt in a pitchers park, 82 is about the same, 83 (previously troublesome but good) is an elite, 20 win card, on a par with 6-7million dollar guys (see link. Hoyt did better than Soto in Royals). 84 now is just as good as 82. 85 is still a great card (can't beat 1.09 whip for 4 million) and 86 is still unplayable. However 86 is a ALOT easier to spot. In a hitters park, you can have a really bad start with any of 4 cards and not know which one it is.

So, I may have gone overboard saying Hoyt is unplayable in a hitters park, but, if there are people in your league who know how good Hoyt is in Royals or the Astodome, you can usually trade him to them for someone better than Hoyt in a hitter's park. I haven't played Royals in a while, but if I did I would definately draft Hoyt in the top 10. Ive lost him drafting him 8th or 9th in a pitchers park.

With Hoyt, he is still only 4 million dollars for a very low whip so he is maybe worth taking a chance on anywhere. Soto on the other hand I am going to stick to saying is unplayable in a hitter's park.