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Post-Draft Analysis

Postby Semper Gumby » Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:16 am

[b:929f560ef8]Overall[/b:929f560ef8]

In SOM, drafting in the later positions usually means a poor season (see the STAR tournaments). So, my 9th slot had "blah" written all over it but the 80s version can keep "hope alive".

I wanted to play in a pitcher's park ballpark team and yet fell into the trap of selecting the "best" available player as top rated skilled players left the board early.

Taking [b:929f560ef8]Hershiser[/b:929f560ef8] after drafting [b:929f560ef8]Clemens[/b:929f560ef8] crushed my draft but I've never had a team where the pitching didn't sink me early. If anything, I might have two SPs ($18m) that can toss long innings to allow for a cheap bullpen. Of course, my Orel selection caused me to miss out on a few nice bats in the middle rounds.


[b:929f560ef8]STARTERS[/b:929f560ef8]

Obviously, the team's success depends on getting [b:929f560ef8]Clemens[/b:929f560ef8]' and [b:929f560ef8]Hershiser'[/b:929f560ef8]s better cards as the rest of the staff came via the autodraft.

So far, Clemens has a high BB rate for RHBs which leads me to the 1989 season. Oddly, I have the same card in another league (confirmed via an injury) and he has yielded just 5 BBs to RHBs over 100 innings. :shock:

The surprise is the late second grab of [b:929f560ef8]Andujar[/b:929f560ef8] as he may have his better card here. [b:929f560ef8]Morris[/b:929f560ef8]' performance shows grit as it smells like his 1983 season. Notwithstanding his early success, Morris runs hot/cold given his tilt towards the LHBs. Interestingly, he has better control than Clemens so far.


[b:929f560ef8]RELIEF[/b:929f560ef8]

A crap shoot after [b:929f560ef8]Gossage[/b:929f560ef8].

With my overpriced starters, I needed to cut corners and did so here.

It will bite me later when I get the gas can cards but I hope to get one or two middle inning relievers to make the high priced start gamble payoff.

So far [b:929f560ef8]Jeff Robinson's [/b:929f560ef8]card died and [b:929f560ef8]Bair[/b:929f560ef8]'s puttering along. [b:929f560ef8]Nelson[/b:929f560ef8] spells Robinson for now and I'm sure he'll get replaced when I find his HR year card.

[b:929f560ef8]Gossage[/b:929f560ef8]probably has his top 2 - 3 year card and [b:929f560ef8]Kipper [/b:929f560ef8]is clearly a hard R rated year (can't seem to work those LHBs).

[b:929f560ef8]Crim[/b:929f560ef8] holds promise as HAL seems to ignore him for Bair (who struggles) and we know how bad HAL is at picking good players.

My hunt is now for a long reliever as my crew clearly is a 1 or 2 inning max setting.


[b:929f560ef8]HITTING[/b:929f560ef8]

Since I spent most of my live draft on pitching, I had a mix bag of crap for the field. Looking at my cards after the draft gave me little hope than to play station2station except I had no speed.

With the best shortstops gone by the fourth round, I went cheap and it shows. [b:929f560ef8]Bowa [/b:929f560ef8] looks to be his 1979 card with the one bright spot being he has 600 PAs along with his 2e14 rating. Otherwise, I didn't do well here - I'm challenged to use [b:929f560ef8]DeJesus[/b:929f560ef8] as few of his years are any better than Bowa's. Plus, the glove will give me fits.

Like the shortstop dilemma, I had cheap written all over catching with [b:929f560ef8]Benedict[/b:929f560ef8] and [b:929f560ef8]Martinez[/b:929f560ef8]. So far, Martinez can hit LHPs and Benedict can hit the water if he fell out of the boat. Given those struggles, I took [b:929f560ef8]LaValliere [/b:929f560ef8]hoping for his above average card to support his strong arm. Of course, my pitchers aren't sporting great hold ratings and my catchers are being challenged early and often. I aim for Spanky's -2 to slow even Kevin Mitchell down.

Having had luck with [b:929f560ef8]Al "Scoop" Oliver [/b:929f560ef8]in three leagues, HAL plays fair and Al isn't long for the roster as [b:929f560ef8]Hatcher[/b:929f560ef8] is hitting. We'll let Al work out his swing on the FA with [b:929f560ef8]Rose[/b:929f560ef8] and Hatcher available - Al might be unemployed soon (well, he is now).

The rest of the batters are mixed nuts. [b:929f560ef8]Wallach[/b:929f560ef8] is sporting his blah year but I suspect he won't miss more than 3 games during his injury stretches. I'll suffer through his bat and look to see if he can get me a few OBPs via the HBP.

[b:929f560ef8]Greenwell[/b:929f560ef8] has been getting intentionally walked everytime in clutch situations. Assuming HAL looks for the better match-ups and the clutch rating, Greenwell has just one year of positive clutch (1988). If so, losing [b:929f560ef8]Easler [/b:929f560ef8]doesn't come back to bite me.

Gibson's card is still a mystery but given his performance - I'm hoping he isn't prone to 15 game vacations.


[b:929f560ef8]BOTTOM LINE[/b:929f560ef8]

The team is playing over its head as I lack hitting. With the addition of [b:929f560ef8]Wally Joyner[/b:929f560ef8] to the club, I'll cut down on the cheap hits as his glove is a huge improvement over Al's.

If Clemen's card cuts back on the BBs and Morris hangs tough versus balanced teams, I hope to find one or two cheap subs for my hitting woes.

[b:929f560ef8]EXPECTED RECORD[/b:929f560ef8]

85-77
Semper Gumby
 
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NY Fightin Seabees

Postby Jimmy_C » Tue Mar 21, 2006 5:25 am

Well...after starting off 5-13 (YIKES) my team is starting to show signs of life. Just when it seemed like I drafted the "bullpen from hell" (the pen accounted for 6 of the 13 losses), they started to show up for games. HAL is particularly enamored with Bill Dawley and it appears like I may have gotten lucky with his '83 card.

Key roster changes included Terry Kennedy, Brook Jacoby, Wally "World" Backman, and Jerry Reuss. I also picked up Johnny Grubb...how come I never see this guy on a roster? I figured he was worth a gamble for his 1.002 OPS card.

The much maligned starting tandem of Stieb/Reuss have been excellent so far. Still 6 games behind in the division...good thing strat is more like a marathon than a sprint!! :D
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Postby Semper Gumby » Tue Mar 21, 2006 1:36 pm

Jimmy,

The league is very quiet for a non-auto draft grouping.

I had to drop Pete Rose when I found him gambling on Jerry Reuss' card. I also suspect Pete knows what card the Rock is using for me. Assuming it is worse year, I can't imagine him walking that many RHBs.

Otherwise, I noticed my other team finally found a break or two in the other league. If I can get Soto's real card to shop up, I may have a chance to catch you. Considering that team had been 5-16 at one point, I am happy to see .500.

Of course, my trade with the Dogs probably will go south on me. I hoped for Vuck's better year and he gets shelled the first time. On the other hand, I gave away a nice Swan card.

We'll see if Eddie Murray hits his card. If so, I could become a factor in determining the wild card race. Doubtful my guys will play in the bonus round but I'm pleased to get them heading in the winning direction.
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Postby Jimmy_C » Tue Mar 21, 2006 7:49 pm

Hey Semper...yeah...I thought that was a real good trade for your team in the other league. Steady Eddie will hit for you no doubt. Swan surprised the heck out of me...after I cut him loose, he came alive for you and Dogsowar. Unfortunately for us both, I think Fletch is going to take our division leaving us to scramble for the wild-card.

In this league, my guys just went on a 7 game tear...and I'm still 6 games behind you!! Slow down a little...I'm never going to catch up if you keep winning. :D
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Postby Semper Gumby » Wed Mar 22, 2006 11:46 am

We'll see on Murray.

I knew I had one of Daniels' two years (1 or 3) but he didn't hit for me. I suspect Year 3 since he could hit LHPs.

As for Swan, I didn't want to lose him but I took a guess on Vuck's year - his K rate is exciting and his 4-8 record didn't bother me as the Dog's had so much turmoil on the roster. My upside is Vuck can pitch on 3 days rest and that means a lot to me now.

I thought Camp's card would be better as he had been lights out for Dog's team. I made individual setting adjustments and maybe HAL will use him better.

Murray? I guess I'm using his high walk year as he can hit LHPs and not RHPs. He had .400 OBP for Dog and I hope to see him come alive soon.

As for the Marine League team - luck so far. Considering my other teams always start out poor (average 5-16), I'll be ready for the swan song here.

I gambled on Wally's card and think I have his HR year but I really wanted was his glove at 1B - Al Oliver ain't an every day player in the field.
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Postby Semper Gumby » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:16 am

Damn?

This league is quiet.

[b:a3defd54be]Orel[/b:a3defd54be]'s performance is confusing me now. Either he is sporting his 1987 or 1988 card (6 HRs yielded vs. LHBs and BB/K rate). Considering he doesn't struggle against LHBs otherwise, I hope for the 1988 season.

As for [b:a3defd54be]Jack Morris [/b:a3defd54be], he is one lucky hurler given his stuff is very suspect. In reviewing his 1983 season, you can say Jack probably used some spit on that ball given his ratios.

If I didn't see everyone running on my guys, I'd leave [b:a3defd54be]Buck [/b:a3defd54be]behind the plate to chase [b:a3defd54be]Jim Morrison's [/b:a3defd54be]homerun power for under $1 guys.

[b:a3defd54be]Wally World[/b:a3defd54be] has found a home (for now) on the squad.
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Postby visick » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:36 am

I would yap more Semper, but seeing this is my 2nd. 80's team ever and I don't think I've ever played you before, I'll be quiet.















Awe, what the heck...

Are you using smoke or mirrors with this team that you've fielded?

hehehe

visick
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Postby Semper Gumby » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:46 am

Visick,

This is just my fourth team, and I'm talking good, bad, or indifferent.

My other three teams went an average of [b:9c00491a05]5-16 [/b:9c00491a05]to start the season (Jimmy can vouch for one team). :oops:

Of course, I followed conventional wisdom and kept the stars for their 100 ABs and 5 or 6 starts. Only to see my teams get worse and worse.

Now I[b:9c00491a05] fire, ready, and aim [/b:9c00491a05]with most of them.

Things have turned around for me on two teams and the one that isn't doing as well lost key players to injuries (Trillo - 18 games on his best card).

Here, I'd expect to do even worse and won't be shocked when I see Morris head south.
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Postby Jimmy_C » Thu Mar 23, 2006 5:23 pm

[quote:026c3b550b] I also picked up Johnny Grubb...how come I never see this guy on a roster?[/quote:026c3b550b]

I think I'm beginning to find out why. :?
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Postby Jimmy_C » Thu Mar 23, 2006 8:22 pm

3 lights-out starters... and your 11-19.
You drop an under performing Joyner ...and he turns into a MONSTER.
Then...my team runs you for 3...and that's just plain wrong.

Better days ahead Parkav...
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