Help please: A Dale Murphy Dilemma

[Outta Leftfield]

Dale Murphy has four great cards and one terrible card. He's popular player at draft time, but I find he's dumped fairly frequently, because managers are worried about that one awful card. In my seven previous seasons, I found he'd actually been dumped four times. On two of those four occasions, he was picked up by another team and performed well for the rest of the season. I was one of the guys who dumped him, when he was hitting .170 after 92 AB with 2 HR. No one picked him up and I've always wondered if I made the right call.

Anyway, I have Murphy again, this time in Riverfront (1-14 HR), and I'm really puzzled. After 72 games and 267 AB, he's hitting just .214, but with 16 HR. He has a strong platoon advantage vs LHP. Maybe you guys can help me figure this out. An injury and HBP point to three possible years, 1983 (.935 5R), 1987 (.994 2L), and 1989 (.668 1L). The platoon data seems to rule out .935--hard to see how he could hit lefties better in a 5R year. That gets us down to 87 and 89, his best and worst years.

The BA seems consistent with the bad year, as does a very low doubles total (4). On the other hand, the HR seem more consistent with the good year. If I were in Yankee or Dodger (my previous favored parks), I wouldn't see how he could get those HR in his bad year. BUT, in Riverfront, maybe it's possible through BPHR. Anyway, I'm facing a dilemma. I'm approaching the 90% cutoff and am not sure whether to keep or cut Murphy. I'd particularly welcome input from guys with experience in HR parks. Is it possible for Murphy to get that high HR total due to park effects? Should I keep or dump? There are other good CF possiblities out there, like Lemon, Bradley and Moseby. But I don't want to dump Murphy in his best year... :?

Here's the team. An interesting team in other ways as well. Whitaker is struggling with his BA, but injury shows him to be in his 1989, .825 OPS year, so I'm inclined to keep him.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=52599

[honestiago1]

Murph sure is underperforming (or dead on, if it's the bad card). The HR rate against lefties suggests '87. The K-W ratio versus LHP's could be either of the two years, but I'm inclined to lean toward '89. He's got a 57-7 K-W versus RH. If you had '87, he'd be bound to have more walks, since he was WALK numbers on 3-5, 3-7 and 3-8 versus righties. I think you have his bad year, which makes him an overpriced platoon player, offensively. He does have the '1' and the arm, however, and would give you power low in your lineup. But if defense is the key here, I think you'd be better off getting a low-priced '1' or '2', then spending the money on another good starting pitcher (or saving up, in case Denny, Haas or Proly prove to be clunkers.

[Outta Leftfield]

Yes, I think you have to be right. Absolutely everything about the performance points to 89, except the HRs. Doubles, BA, walks are all in line with the bad year. Only HR, and esp. HR vs LHP, seem to point to the better year. But one anomaly is easier to explain than a whole bunch. The walks may be the clincher--it's really hard for HAL to hide 115 BB's for this long. Murph is tracking right on the 89 card for walks, which is nearly half the 87 card.

So, I think I'm going to cut Murph unless somebody talks me out of it before tonight. I'm leaning toward picking up Moseby but will think about it further. I want to check out other OBP #s, since that's mainly what this team needs.

I've been driven to the cheaper pitchers because all the more expensive ones on the table have already been hammered. So far Proly and Haas look promising. And getting Moseby will leave me with a decent cash reserve.

[PillPop]

I've done well Moseby in CF, also with Milt Thompson, and I've had seasons where Devon White hammers lefties. Any of those guys would be worthy second options after dropping Murphy. And all field at 2 or better.

[Outta Leftfield]

Though much tempted by Moseby, I decided to give Chet Lemon a spin first. If he doesn't work out, I'll still have sufficient cash for Moseby. (Actually, Moseby's bailed me out of a bad Lemon year once before).

I've got my fingers crossed. This team has plenty of power, and the best bullpen I've ever had, but I need to fix CF and more important, hope my cheap starters keep coming through. I don't need a great season out of CF, just solid numbers to keep the offense rolling. If you check out Strawberry, Harrah, and A. Davis, you'll see why the CF can play a supporting role. :wink:

[BRIANCHIVIS]

I always have bad performance from Murphy. One year I kept him and he never did perform. I think it really depends on how much you need the offense.

To be honest, I have never seen him have a great year. I don't know ith they screwed something up in the cost formula or not. I do like the -3 arm though.

[Outta Leftfield]

Well, Murphy is puzzling. I've looked at all eight of his seasons in leagues I've been in. He's been dumped five years out of eight, which is strange given 4 cards with .900+ OPS and only one bad year. Twice, he was picked up after being dumped and had a good power season. Counting the three years he wasn't dumped, that makes five good power seasons in my leagues. But in none of the years did he hit much above .250, even if he hit a lot of HR.

I'm not sure none of these seasons produced a BA anything like the .290-.300 BA's we see on the cards. This time I gave him 267 ABs before cutting him and he was still hitting only .213.

I don't think the pricing is out of whack as long as he would perform to his cards. The fact that he hasn't, much, in my experience is what's puzzling. Usually players with .900+ OPS declare themselves pretty early, and almost always by mid-season.

Anyone have different experiences with Murphy--e.g. a BA. of .280 or above plus lots of HR?

[moodinator123]

I am new but have 2 teams, both currently playing, and both times I drafted Dale Murphy since he really is one of the top 3 players of the decade if not the best.

My first league has been a rocky road, am 77-67 and up by a game playing in Fulton County Stadium because i figure it's semi-neutral with a slight power bias. Murphy is near the top of the league in nearly everything, if he has a great finish he could be MVP but is just a bit behind now at .300-45-116 with 101 runs scored and slg of .590. He strangely has made like 12 errors though which is crazy.

Other team is struggling mightily at 6-12 and Murphy is hitting under .200 with 4 HRs and 9 rbi. Hoping he is just a victim of a slow start.

[honestiago1]

Murph needs the hitter's parks, don't he?