Speed at the top: What's your opinion?

[NFLed1]

"How many OB chances (out of 104) are required at the top for a * lead-off man? I'm going to say 38-40 as a minimum."

I agree with this, 38-40 (out of 108) as a minimum with hopefully higher. I'm not a fan of speed except in pitcher's parks on a team with good pitching so that eeking out a run due to speed can be important even though trying to eek out that run risks an extra out being made. If it's a hitter's park or my team in general has heavy hitters I don't care much about speed and especially stolen bases as taking advantage of that will often just give up too many outs.

[markp65]

Were he an online strat player, Ambrose Bierce might have said that the function of the speed game at the top, middle or bottom of the lineup is to provide one's opponant with outs; that the only "threat" a base stealer brings is the threat to kill a rally.

Two big problems with online strat base-stealing...

1. It's a strategy which depends on putting way too much in-game decision-making in the hands of HAL. When you can't control the specific in-game context, things like stealing, bunting, hit-and-run, IBB, and the use of specialist relief pitchers can give you more grief than gain.

2. It's too easy for your opponant to clip your wings. If you've got a team in your division overly reliant upon base-stealing, all you need to do is keep a -3 armed catcher around (either a starter or cheap reserve) and seek SP with killer pickoff moves. None too difficult. From a defensive standpoint, it's much easier (and cheaper) to turn Pierre into Bonds on the bases than to turn Bonds into Pierre at the plate.

I believe that in a pitchers' park, for example, you're much better off avoiding the base-stealing game altogether and going with players featuring...

1. high OBP, with a high pct of that OBP coming from hits rather than walks
2. a high pct of slugging derived from doubles and triples
3. low GBA
4. positive clutch
5. at least some natural HR
6. the * - but only to diminsh the defense, never to steal with

Those are probabilities which will bear fruit over time; and they aren't subject to the caprices of HAL or a 1 mil battery combo with a couple of cannons.

And as for stealing in a hitters' park? Setting even one player to steal in a hitters' park is simply betting against the house -- it's giving outs away.

I've certainly seen teams win using an aggressive approach on the bases, but I think there are much better ways to plate runs in this game.

[bleacher_creature]

[quote:0cff429d18]6. the * - but only to diminsh the defense, never to steal with [/quote:0cff429d18]

This is the primary reasons to have speed IMO. The * baserunner on 1st in particular will open holes for the #2 hitter etc... This is a pretty bid deal when a "2" SS becomes a "3" assuming you have a LH hitter in the two hole. If right handed (at #2), then the "3" 2B becomes a "4".

Applying this extra pressure to the opposition is important in Strat play, online or no online.

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

I like a 15 baserunner as well near the top... then you can put guys with lottsa clean xtra base hits behind them. these types can score from first on clean doubles and from 2nd on clean singles.

[MARCPELLETIER]

markp,

I don't think it's a good idea to look for nine players having the same profile.

In my opinion, to maximize efficiency, it's important to maximize the value enhanced by the line-up position. As weird as it might sound: players with bad clutch and high gbA must be looked for as well.

Say, for example, that a certain player costs 5M and has a very bad clutch. If you have this player in the second slot, then his value will be higher than 5M, perhaps 5.3M, because the number of times his bad clutch will come in effect will be much less than what TSN expected.

Similarly, if your lead-off has most of his on-base from walks, you, again, increase his value, because walks are as valuable as singles for 35% of your lead-off's at-bats (in dh leagues, of course). Similarly, if your lead-off has lots of gbA, you again increase his value by putting him first.

[geekor]

Well testing to see if good speed matters that much. Hard to tell with this bunch, though they have the best recor (won't hold) right now in the league. 7th in offense, 1st in pitching.....

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=2001

[Minoso Express]

An apposite and intriguing thread for me to jump into, as I've been putting together my first 2006 team with a lot of help from some of you.


http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=4118


I'm willing to test out the various speed/steal theories over the course of this season as a Strat experiment that will be useful to those of who think speed (I tend to agree with markp's uses and abuses of speed on the basepath theories) matters in both traditional and less traditional ways. I'm taking experimental requests. javascript:emoticon(':)')

With Abreu, Jeter and Figgins providing speed and good OBP, it's an interesting top of the order challenge for lineup setting. Bay's no OBP and speed slouch, himself.

Leo- Tony Clark's production at the bottom of the order is pretty amazing. And what you didn't mention is that you're doing this without great pitching. And in Shea. Hats off to you.