NLD 13 Draft thread

[Semper Gumby]

[quote:5a71496fe9]J.Peavy WIN(3-4) 5 1/3 2 0 0 0 8 0 53 4.44[/quote:5a71496fe9]

I saw Bernie's posting on the pitching. We'll see what comes out of it.

I know what I see (I've got example upon example of these strange outcomes) and an appreciation of statistical analysis (I do it all day at work). So, I am not just yelling because I tossed 10 coins and they all came up heads when I wanted tails.

I remember a few years ago, I posted the issue around sluggers going cold mid-season (Edmonds hit 50 HRs by the all-star break and hit another 15 in 81 games in Shea with three or four other Sheas in the league). Several decried it as sour grapes but we saw what happened at TSN when a code review showed the "power sapper" code at play.

The above pitching line comes from my last series - Peavy tosses 5.3 innings yields 2 hits and whiffs 8 [b:5a71496fe9]ONLY TO BE PULLED[/b:5a71496fe9]?

Slow hook, conservative relief.

In reviewing my losses, I've had more blown bullpen events than I care to recall.

Besides blown bull pen management, I've noticed an increase in WPs / Balks / and catcher errors. Hell, I had one catcher with a 2e4 rating and he had 18 errors. On another team, I have Tony Pena and 8 pitchers with -1 holds (the other 4 have 0 or +1) but I can't toss out one base thief while Pena has 5 errors already.

In other leagues, I have noticed last place teams playing above their cards against better teams and poorly against evenly matched teams. Several 80s veterans say the logic allows the poor teams to match-up so the owners play again. I [b:5a71496fe9]highly doubt[/b:5a71496fe9] that theory but I have had too many teams playing above .590 ball mid-season go south when playing a few of these empty teams.

Yes, it is a game of luck and opportunity. However, you don't expect HAL to short change you on the opportunity.

[nythawk129921]

and then there is my hitting deprived team.
.219/297/344 says it all.

[Jeepdriver]

Hawk, I hope your hitting is deprived for 1 more night, and then take off! :wink:

[qksilver69]

Jeep - I disagree about an expensive pen in a $100M league. While I think $16M is a lot for 4 RPs, when you know you will be facing juggernaut offenses almost every night, the odds of having a stud SP knocked out early are much higher. All it takes are 4-5 rolls in a row on hitter card & Clemens is going in the 1st inning.

So, if you have a bunch of stud RP 2s, you can compensate for that effect a bit & not have your pen tired every game. In $100M leagues I usually have 3 studs & 3 specialists in the pen, but have no qualms abt 4 RP studs if I play in a hitter park....

[Ninersphan]

I agree with qk, hence,


The Studs

Wise,
Helling
Gonzalez
Turnbow

The Specialists
Worrell
Ayala

Also even tough I have * pitchers, the only one that DEFINITLY, goes every 3 days is Zambrano other than that it's matchup up city. And I like Matching up with * pitchers cause the need one less day rest making it easier to get the matchup you want.

But again, My winning % sux so what the hell do I know. :wink:

[Jeepdriver]

After I wrote that (above) I went to look and Beach is leading the league in RS. So the expensive pen is not hampering his offense from what it looks. I do agree with your assessment QK, but boy that's a lot of $$ ($20+M) tied-up in 4 RP's.

[joethejet]

[b:2cf3ccc6e8]Niner[/b:2cf3ccc6e8], Not meaning to imply that your team stinks, but Turnbow is CLEARLY overperforming, certainly he's not better than Reyes and he's been perfect. Hasn't allowed an earned run :!: :!: :!: There's just a little luck there wouldnt' you say? The guy looks like the second coming if "The Eck".

[b:2cf3ccc6e8]Semper[/b:2cf3ccc6e8], Hal stinks with pitchers. There is NO logic to what he does, at least none that makes sense. The guys that wrote that code must live in India and don't know baseball. ;) I suppose there is some sort of IP balancing going on, but it's still non-sensical.

[b:2cf3ccc6e8]Silver[/b:2cf3ccc6e8], I have the three studs and the two match up guys and the 3 studs all have ERAs over 4.50 with the two best > 5.00. :? Go figure. It's a dice game.

Ratings coming soon..

Jet

[joethejet]

[code:1:008f0dae79]

Team Rating O Rat F Rat P Rat Projected Wins
Smokee 2484 7,873 555.2 4834 85.5
Day 2264 7,470 506.9 4699 81.0
Jeep 2192 7,873 4980 7781 79.5
JG 2146 7,916 769.5 5001 78.5
2271 7783 1703 5579

Wineman 2383 7,948 660.1 4905 83.5
AT 2261 7,460 194 5005 81.0
Semper 2256 7,498 739.7 4503 80.9
Niners 2132 7,675 552.7 4990 78.2
2258 7645 537 4851

Big 2462 7,458 387.5 4609 85.1
Silver 2449 7,801 440 4913 84.8
Beach 2197 7,738 570.5 4970 79.6
Hawkeye 1965 7,457 530 4962 74.3
2268 7614 482 4863


[/code:1:008f0dae79]

[Ninersphan]

Joe, I'll conceed Turnbow has certianly gotten the rolls, but I don't thin Reyes is THAT much better. the only 2 significant differences between them:
1. Reyes has a MUCH higher stirkeout count against LH hitters and
2. again, Turnbow induces groundballs and Reyes doesn't.

Now I'm not saying the groundballs are the only reason Turnbow is doing well, but It can't hurt.

[joethejet]

Some analysis:

There is a lot of balance throughout the league (big surprise huh? ;)) Honestly, according to the ratings, the only team that's way off is Hawk and he's sitting on 4.2 mil in cap so what would you expect?

JG is sitting on 1.5 mil so his numbers could easily go up.

The Ratings say that Smokee will win the East, but the other three will be very close to each other.

The Central is too close to call. All teams are within the margin of error.

Looks like a two team race in the West.

Given that Beach is underperforming his numbers and that Coors teams usually overperform one might surmise that his team isn't that good a fit for Coors (or the opponents are even better!)

Some Caveats:

These ratings are for the "average" of all the parks so teams that are at one extreme (Petco) or the other (coors) YMMV.

Teams with match up starters (and who do a good job of matching up) will over perform their numbers (e.g. Niners)

I used the actual IP for the RPs. If you have a stud who's not pitching then your rating will be better with him getting more IP and vice versa.

Usually one team over performs their numbers and one team under performs.

Remember this is strictly by the ratings, I haven't looked at the teams closely enough to validate my conclusions AND I didn't validate against your lineups so, although I tried to pick the very best "rated" lineup, you may be doing something better (or worse) than I recorded!

Let the mud slinging begin. :D

Jet