Analyzing defense and hold ratings re: basepaths aggression

[childsmwc]

I realized I overlooked the positive chance of getting a balk, but if you look at the pitchers individual ratings a significant number of pitchers have a zero balk rating, and typically a 5 is about as high as that rating goes. So the balk will be a rare occurence when attempting the lead.

Bbrool

[Mean Dean]

Right... the math doesn't suggest setting "steal more" if the lead is solely on a 2 (although honestly I do it anyway just for the hell of it :wink:... plus at least the blow is cushioned by avoiding the DP; there is something to be said for avoiding a completely stationary game). But, the math [i:bb2f800761]would[/i:bb2f800761] suggest doing it if the lead were on a 3. Point being, not all C and D stealers are equal; some should be set to "more", others to "don't."

[bleacher_creature]

This seems like a good place to ask this question. When setting base running and base stealing, what are the percentages for [b:a416279e65]very aggressive, aggressive, normal[/b:a416279e65], etc...?

Is very aggressive like 1-10 safe chance? My next series is against very tough SPs, and it would seem worth it to try to score on a singe from second if the odds are say 50% of being safe.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I can't answer your question directly---I don't know if "very aggressive" corresponds to any specific number (I don't think so, it seems as if Hal considers the context as well).

But, as a general group average, I have had success rate around 70% with "very conservative" settings.

Also, even though you play against very tough pitchers, and unless you play in a special league (like 60M), you should NEVER be satisfied with 50% success rate (unless, perhaps, at the 9th, but of course, we don't have this kind of fine-grained settings at hand). There is just too much offense in a 80M to try to steal at 50%. 60% should be the real minimum, and even then, if you have a fair offense, 65% should be targeted.