by Mean Dean » Thu May 11, 2006 10:10 am
There are many reasons why that makes perfect sense. First off, assuming the runner is held, there is never a 100% chance to steal; there's always at least a 5% chance of a CS. Secondly, the total of the pitcher's hold and catcher's arm can't be any less than -5 or any more than +5, so in this case it would be +5 (and then -2 for being held.) And of course, you can attempt to steal second even without a lead; if that were the case here, then your chance would be 1-14 (2nd number of 13, +5 for arm/hold, -4 for being held and not having a lead.) The rules, BTW, are [url=http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/somrules.htm]here[/url] (search for "stealing.")
Your link to your team doesn't work (you need to go to "standings", right-click your team name, "copy as shortcut", and paste that.) But I can answer without even knowing your roster ;) I set stealing tendency to "conservative", and set individual players to either "steal more" (if they have a high number 13 or greater and a very low chance of being automatically caught), or "don't steal if held" (if their chance of being automatically caught is anything more likely than a 12). Basically, I'm telling HAL, if there's a very good chance you can steal and you know you can make it, go for it; otherwise, please don't bother. That has worked to give me very high SB%.