Rick Helling = Bad Luck

[kaviksdad]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=2870

We've played 75 games so far, his home park is Fenway, and he doesn't have a BPHR on his card. He's given up 110 hits so far....AND 26 HAVE BEEN HR'S!

Talk about some tough luck rolls... :cry:

[MARCPELLETIER]

Don't blame luck.

Blare tiredness.

HRs and Walks get sudden rise when pitchers get tired.

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

I don't see how it could be tiredness lucky.

108 ip in 43 games for a R3.

[Semper Gumby]

[quote:3f1ba26ad2]HRs and Walks get sudden rise when pitchers get tired. [/quote:3f1ba26ad2]

:roll:


When a pitcher becomes fatigued, I recall the pitcher card contains outcomes followed by a dot (none on the batter's card).

If Helling became fatigued, HAL disregards the outcome (i.e., a lineout)and replaces it with a [b:3f1ba26ad2]single**[/b:3f1ba26ad2].

If this is correct in TSN's versions, where would the phantom walks and HRs derive from?

[hugedude24]

Mike Gonzalez has been the same for me. 12 HRs in 56 six innings with no BPHR. Heilman has given up a number too, but I expect both to not have such bad luck all year.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=3205

[Mean Dean]

[b:f87358509f]Gumby[/b:f87358509f] is correct about the mechanics of the board game. But, the computer game uses the pitch count fatigue system, which is a lot more sophisticated than the board game's simple "on/off" system. There are levels of fatigue, and according to the help file:[quote:f87358509f]When a pitcher's condition drops below a 9 he starts to give up more singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks.[/quote:f87358509f]Additionally, if I'm not mistaken, Bernie has then taken those fatigue penalties and made them harsher, in order to prevent reliever overusage. So, although I'm not gonna diagnose this specific case, I think it's quite possible in general that an underperforming reliever could be overused, even if the problem is HR allowed.

[cummings2]

I'm not sure it's fatigue that is causing the Helling's HRs though.

From playing the CD game getting to fatigue 9 is not uncommon, mostly happens with SPs S7 that I stretch to the 9th inn. though, I've never gotten to those levels of fatigue with an RP.

Thing that makes it tough to gauge is that, just like in life I guess, a pitcher can go some innings throwing 9-10 pitches and some others pitching 30-35, so using innings pitched can't really be the only element used to determine whether the pitcher was fatigued or not and the degree to which he was fatigued, WHIP [i:a87ed234b9]and[/i:a87ed234b9] IP could provide a better idea though since the whip will likely show the kind of innings pitched, that is a quick three up three down, or not. So, before I reach any conclusions...let me gather some data from three different R3 pitchers.

OK, here we go.

Kav's Helling (R3) after 78 games:
108 IP
112 Hits
42 BBs
26 HRs
1.42 WHIP
BP: Fenway 14-14-4-10
IP per Team's games played: 1.38


My Carrasco (R3) after 162 games:
207 IP
161 Hits
83 BBs
17 HRs
1.18 WHIP
BP: Kauffman 10-13-2-2
IP per Team's games played: 1.27


A Heilman (R3) in another league after 99 games:
130 IP
96 Hits
49 BBs
8 HRs
1.11 WHIP
49 BBs
8 HRs
BP: Minute Maid 3-11-3-16
IP per Team's games played: 1.31


Well...wow, didn't think I would say this when I started writing this post but given this very, very, very small comparison and sample I would say that fatigue seems to be playing a role here.

Nice going on the diagnostics Lucky and Dean. Really cool.

KD, hope you start getting the lucky bounces.

[geekor]

Heilman, Aaron R R3/C4 [i:0f76d05d93]W[/i:0f76d05d93] 13 [i:0f76d05d93]L[/i:0f76d05d93] 5 [i:0f76d05d93]S[/i:0f76d05d93] 31 [i:0f76d05d93]BS[/i:0f76d05d93] 7 [i:0f76d05d93]INNP[/i:0f76d05d93] 171.2 [i:0f76d05d93]H[/i:0f76d05d93] 124 50 48 60 [i:0f76d05d93]SO[/i:0f76d05d93] 176 [i:0f76d05d93]HR[/i:0f76d05d93] 13 [i:0f76d05d93] ERA[/i:0f76d05d93] 2.52 [i:0f76d05d93]WHIP[/i:0f76d05d93] 1.07 1L

[cummings2]

Woooooooow...that's uber 8) 13 Hrs and 1.07 Whip in [i:109aaa2e98]Coors[/i:109aaa2e98] Nice going Geekor.

Nice numbers, glad to see I won't facing him against your Uber Troll. Good luck in the semis, hope you don't sweep me...again :evil: :wink:

[cummings2]

Going back to KD's Helling...

It does seem that fatigue is playing a role. Whether or not Helling is giving up all those HRs because he is tired that I really don't know but given the other axamples he has the highest Whip along with the highest ammount of IP per GP