bullpen blown saves

bullpen blown saves

Postby milezd » Thu May 18, 2006 9:31 am

Now that we have the added column of blown saves for our teams I've noticed a bad trend on my part. I have a lot of blown saves. I am wondering if it has something to how I have my manager settings.

Looking at the teams I have had this year I average somewhere between 22-27 blown saves per team. YUK! (though the sample size is small, only 4 teams so far)

I have 2 teams that are relatively new and those teams are projecting into that range for blown saves as well.

I've had that many blown saves whether I use a stud closer like turnbow or a cheapo closer like baez.

I am wondering if this is bad luck or am I setting myself up for failure.

my typical closer settings are(listing only the checked boxes for the player)

Avoid using before 8th inning
Max of 1 to 2 IP in relief

my typical starter settings are (I always use 4 * starters)
no boxes checked! I don't slow or quick hook anyone or limit their innings

my typical reliver settings are
Max of 1 to 2 IP in relief
I only use quick hook and the "avoid" settings on the 7-9R 7-9L players

my typical manager settings are
relief usage - normal
closer usage - maximize <--- maybe this is the culprit

just throwing this out there to see what other people think
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Postby DAVIDGAMBLE » Thu May 18, 2006 9:48 am

I feel your pain....Lidge (see my What the Heck?!?! post) is blowing saves like he's in the first year of a 7 year deal man!
Save 8 and blow 4 is not a good trend. I don't think we'll reach 22 blown saves (I wouldn't bet against it though!) but it doesn't seem to me that your manager settings are weird.
I haven't had a look at the "talent" yet, but I think it to be a bugaboo of the game itself...whether it's how BS is defined (perfect acronym for this stat by the way), the way relievers are used by the HAL manager, or just the distribution of talent in a 80,100,200 million cap league.
I haven't been at it or studied it long enough to be sure.
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Postby PAULMINICUCCI » Thu May 18, 2006 3:24 pm

I have had some of the same problems. The only correlation I have found is that reverse relief pitchers have been the recipient of most of my blown saves. I am not sure whether that's an independent or dependent variable. I found myself getting stuck with for lack of a better term a lot of RH picthers with LH ratings and I think somehow HAL is not using them correctly. I also note that a lot of blown saves for me were the results of facing switch hitters. HAL does not understand switch hitters well. I get a guy who is a switch hitter who has been hitting right handed because I had a lefty starter is likely to face a righty reliever, because the opponent has mostly RH hitters and viola the lefty rp is brought in and the switch hitter turns him around.

The reason I am using this logic is because I have notcied blown saves more this year and the biggest difference I can see is that there are a lot of mid-range relievers who are RH pitchers with LH ratings, more than I remember last year. Just a thought.
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Postby 1crazycanuk » Thu May 18, 2006 5:47 pm

I had J. Eischen come in and blow a game last night when Wagner and Hoffman sat on the bench. And niether of them were tired...they each hadn't played in about five games. I was mad. I am not going to get that wild card spot now for sure.
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Postby MEAT » Thu May 18, 2006 8:25 pm

the blown save stat is off the charts. check out this group thru 135 games, 21 saves, nine blown, and they're in FIRST! got another 1st place team at 32-16, which is better, but unacceptable for ANY successful team. me thinks HAL's not paying enough attention to avoid lh/rh and quick hooks!
[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=1401[/url]
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Postby Jerlins » Thu May 18, 2006 10:11 pm

Just keep in mind a blown save can come early in the game, before the game is in a "save" situation. Having a 4 to 3 lead in the 5th inning and then having the other team score two runs is also considered a blown save. Its not as bad for your teams as you think it is.
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Postby milezd » Fri May 19, 2006 8:01 am

for me, the majority of my blown saves reside with my closer, granted other pitchers have BS but my trend is more toward my "don't bring in before the 8th inning" closer
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Postby worrierking » Fri May 19, 2006 8:48 am

I have some teams with very good records with some pretty high blown saves totals. I'm not too concerned. It seems to be something everybody is dealing with. You can still win with high blown saves.
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Postby FoggyOne » Fri May 19, 2006 11:36 am

extremely high blown save percentage for me as well. one out of every three opportunities. My gut is that it is the overworked relievers who are responsible and pitch in save situations while fatigued. Its the only way I can explain Mo Rivera blowing 40% of save ops....b/c I have him set to set-up and close and max his innings.
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Postby Valen » Fri May 19, 2006 1:35 pm

I think the high number of blown saves is a reflection of the better than real life quality lineups. Plus the fact that half the time the pitcher's card has no impact on the outcome. You are bound to get some rolls on hitter cards that run up the blown save count. And that 50/50 algorithm makes it very difficult for strat to duplicate any extreme performances. Just something to live with and adjust to. Once you do the fun of the game can return.
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