Ready Pinch-hits for Guerrero, Yikes

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Ready Pinch-hits for Guerrero, Yikes

Postby yak1407 » Fri May 26, 2006 10:22 am

Just had a game where Randy Ready pinch-hit for Pedro Guerrero.
Granted, he hit a three-run homer off Tom Niedenfuer to win the game, but is HAL telling me something?
I have no explanation.
Does anyone have any thoughts?
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Postby Paul5757 » Fri May 26, 2006 10:54 am

ballpark?
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Postby yak1407 » Fri May 26, 2006 11:53 am

Playing in County Stadium
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Postby ccangerame » Fri May 26, 2006 12:45 pm

You could have Ready's monster card- 940 obs- and kills lefties- that is the best 1.41 million you can spend
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Postby Paul5757 » Fri May 26, 2006 1:09 pm

Just for a hoot, I counted the safe chances for Guerrero's second-worst year vs. Ready's best year. Ready came out a mere fraction ahead. But Guerrero would still have substantially more homer chances in County. You might want to run similar comparisons with Ready's other decent years vs. Guerrero's worst year.

Although this might imply that you have Guerrero's worst year, I wouldn't run off and go cut Guerrero. HAL has been known to make some very strange decisions. (Personally, I'd use it as a factor to determine whether to cut Guerrero, more as a tiebreaker if I'm trying to make up my mind, but I definitely would not use it as the sole factor. And I'd definitely give him some ABs to draw a better conclusion.)

And, on a slightly off-topic rant, we don't know HAL's logic. Strat should make that transparent, but it seems that Strat guards its cards/programming like they were worth more than the Hope Diamond. There's no reason that, along with more HAL transparency, the average player should be able to tweak that logic to concentrate on HR chances, on base chances, etc., when choosing a PH or reliever, in any given situation. But that will never happen.
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Postby yak1407 » Fri May 26, 2006 1:58 pm

I'm going to wait a bit longer on Guerrero but based on his HR totals, 3 in 100 ABs which puts him right on pace to reach his worst year number.
In a limited number of bats for me, however, he is pounding RHPs which might mean it is another year. And, since I picked him up on waivers, my team has gone 7-2 after an 8-16 start.
Even if I have Ready's monster year (four walks, no hits is seven plate appearances), the move only makes sense if Ready pinch hits against an LHP. But Niedenfeur is an RHP and while Ready's balance is almost totally against lefties, Guerrero typically, supposedly, hits RHPs better.
Perhaps HAL was simply playing a hunch.
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Postby JIMDAKE » Fri May 26, 2006 6:07 pm

Hal's really smokin' something.
Last night he PH Gerald Young (no injury confirm, but looking for all the world like his .175 year) for Dwayne Murphy's confirmed .274 year (and hitting .290+). Off Guetterman, who has too kills-lefties years, but....Young?
Geez, I'm having enough trouble scoring runs from my own decisions! No, it did not result in a game-winning hit, and I lost. (Later on, Hal pinch-hit Seitzer for Young).
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Postby Paul5757 » Fri May 26, 2006 9:55 pm

That's not surprising, Murphy is nothing special vs. LHP in '80...I'd take Young over '80 Murphy vs. an extreme LHP like Guetterman on all cards except for that .175 year.
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Postby yak1407 » Sat May 27, 2006 5:17 am

Happened again. This time, Polonia for Guererro. Makes more sense because it was against Eichhorn so there was at least a match-up, but still.
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