Do you really want the best record in the league?

[CHRISTIANSTOUGH]

Hmmm. where do I begin.

Thanks for the research, keep it comming,I am very cruious about your ideas and conclusions.

As you mentioned, 13 is way too small of a sample.

It might be said that the team with the lowest record going into the playoffs is the better team.

I'll use the football example of the NFC in the 1970's. The NFC was divided into three divisions; East, Central and West. Each year three division winners and a wild card would compete in the playoffs to see who would play in the super bowl.
The toughest competition was in the NFC East; where two to three teams would battle for the playoffs every year. In the central and west divisions, their was usually one team who was clearly superior(usually the Vikings in the central and the Rams in the west).
Because the competition in the West/Central was so weak, the winners of these divisions would usually have the better records. However having the best record did not lead to championships
Of the ten NFC champions, 6 came from the East, 3 from the central and 1 from the west.
In fact 8 out of ten years a team with the best record, or tied for the best record, did not win the NFC championships.

My point; the winner of the strongest division is the best team. If that team's playoff record is less then 25%, there is a flaw.

Check out the division champion from the division which has the highest number of victories for all four teams. Compare it to the winners of the weaker divisions. Your math guys, figure it out

[uvm87]

There's another factor that I've noticed. The team with the best record often comes from a bad division with a team (or teams) with bad records. They may have padded their records against the bad teams. I've only completed 6 ATG2 leagues, but in all 6 leagues the champ came from the division with [u:974a4b3dad]the best combined record.[/u:974a4b3dad]

I'd be curious to see if this holds for others.

[uvm87]

Nice job Fluffy. You know the saying, "Great minds..." 8)

[CHRISTIANSTOUGH]

I'm pretty sure everyone in this community can read(although spelling might be a problem for this writer).
We are playing FANTASY baseball. No one here is confused about what is real or false. If we wanted real baseball, we'd be watching it or playing it.

I think what I find so insulting about your post is that you have such a poor grasp of the motivating factors of this community.

Most guys are here because they like names and numbers placed in a baseball paradigm and because we like baseball history. We also like to match wits under these conditions. Finally, as you've probably learned already, we like to BS about baseball and baseball numbers.

Unlike many sports, baseball can be exclusively followed in the newspaper boxscores(which is how this fantasy league is set up).
Everything in baseball is quantified, pitching, hitting, fielding. However, I don't think any baseball fan believes that this quantification is perfectly accurate by any means.
How does one quantify the intimidation factor of a starting pitcher or of crowd noise or the fact that the second baseman just stole the hitters girlfiend.
You can't. So one comes up with arbitrary numbers, like less then 599 game means 15 game DL.

But let me return to my origianl point. My experience has been that University folk haven't the slightest clew about what motivates people in the general population. I have many opinions as to why this is so, but I'll keep them to myself.

Stick to the data and all will be well.

[JohnnyBlazers]

Great Point UVM. It seems that all it takes is one bad or abandoned team in a division to throw off the standings.

[tkl33]

[quote:a72c9db53d]Do you really want the best record in the league?[/quote:a72c9db53d]


Yes!!!!

[CHRISTIANSTOUGH]

The one where 106 got swept.. very good. Enlarge your sample and I'm a believer.
Your point of attack might be well spent on playoff results vs. regular season results. Once again, if you enlarge your sample.. I'll be a believer.

Your point that this is a static game is very true and to the point. All you need to do now is back up the premise with a larger data base.

Let us know how we can help.

[guardian154]

In all seriousness you need a larger sample of data.

[quote:33aceef814]We develop and refine game theory.[/quote:33aceef814]

Who is "we"? What game theory(ies) have you refined that I might know about?

Of the 13 seasons you checked, what were the percentages of wins against inter-division teams compared to the intra-division percentages?

[Free Radicals]

This game is like anything else ..a game of chance . Its determined by dice rolls . If the dice roll your way you win more than lose and visa versa. No one can tell me that this is a 'perfect' program but can you find one that's better ? I've been in many leagues with refugees from other online games and they have said this one is the best . Its like your tv . If you don't like what's on ...turn the channel . If you don't like the game then don't play . Changes are your not going to win it all (1 in 12 ). Just put a team together and see how it goes and hope and pray you can be competitve . Get in a league with the top managers , like sschu , Frank Bailey , Boss of Um , Nevdully , Bobby ,Steve Ames , Petrosian , Play by the Rules and many more . And see if the numbers work out the way you thought they would . Chances are you'll get your lunch handed to you . There are subtle nuances to the game in knowing who fits in which park etc.etc.etc. Make a team and see what happens . Start your own datatbase and crunch numbers til hell freezes over ! :shock: :D :) :D