Skill or Chance?

[J-Pav]

[b:c35d3f3442]Marcus[/b:c35d3f3442]:

I agree that very small changes can have an impact and make a difference, especially in '06s tighter races. The question becomes, are two to three wins [i:c35d3f3442]skill or chance[/i:c35d3f3442]?

You still have to [i:c35d3f3442]try[/i:c35d3f3442] to play for those few extra wins. The dilemma is, you can do everything right and still lose only in the luck category. Is it worth it? Is it worth it to finish top 3 in both offense and pitching and not make the playoffs to a team that finishes middle of the pack in both? How can I [i:c35d3f3442]lead the league[/i:c35d3f3442] in hits, walks, doubles, obp and batting average and finish 100 runs behind a team that is .320 in obp and .398 ( :shock: ) in slugging (and I had the better pitching!)

What [i:c35d3f3442]skill[/i:c35d3f3442] is that team exhibiting that I can learn and build from? There isn't any, it seems.

[J-Pav]

"But it is definitively a fact that the competition is better than ever."

I couldn't help but notice you're hanging on to a one game lead in a tour league division consisting of two players with a combined 23 leagues of total SOM experience and one regular player with a lifetime winning pct of .477. Not saying they haven't or couldn't have found the groove in '06, but you have to admit that that has to be a [i:6a1281ac3f]little[/i:6a1281ac3f] frustrating to you.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I certainly understand the frustration, don't get me wrong on this.

Also, there is no doubt that, in one specific season, luck can indeed overcome the skill aspect.

In doing stimulations (be it with Strat computer game, Diamond game, or for real-life baseball), the range of results often varies between +/-8 wins (a 81 win team will occasionnally get 89 wins due to random behaviour of the dices).

Think of Cleveland last year. Finished first in OPS allowed among all MLB teams. Finished 4th in offensive OPS. But they ended up 9 games below their pythagorian records, and the ChiSox, not the Indians, drank the champaign.

[J-Pav]

I'm always shooting for 162-0, so disappointment has always been a close friend. But now he's getting closer than ever! :(

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:1ca1278cb8]
I couldn't help but notice you're hanging on to a one game lead in a division consisting of two players with a combined 23 games of total SOM experience and one regular player with a lifetime winning pct of .477. Not saying they haven't or couldn't have found the groove in '06, but you have to admit that that has to be a little frustrating to you.[/quote:1ca1278cb8]

I don't think this comment is fair for what unesid (coaching the Pure Excellence) has accomplished. Indeed, if more people coach like unesid did this season, I think we would see better records.

For this first season, I went with the most extreme stadium, Minute Maid. I went for a line-up full right-handed teams, and when I observed no movement among my divisional opponents towards getting strong rhp pitchers, I sticked with this loaded line-up. I also observed two teams in my division, including unesid's team, going with more than 6 right-handed hitters. So I went nuts with 8R-9R pitchers as well, matching perfectly my stadium.

"This season will be an easy one" I exclaimed myself.

Through a series of trades, unesid got a more balanced line-up, 5 left-handed hitters and 4 right-handed hitters, screwing a bit my pitching strategy. A few trades later, and there he was with 7 [i:1ca1278cb8]left-handed [/i:1ca1278cb8]hitters.

"Wow, I said, I'm getting screwed here".

Soon I strated to change a bit the configuration of my pitching staff.

And then, just before we started off the last divisional stretch, unesid fires two of his starting pitchers to get extreme right-handed pitchers---this time completely screwing my offense. Yes, this move costs him 1 or 2 millions, but the benefits go well beyond that considering the set-up of my own team.

It is no wonder that unesid dominated my team in this season, with a 13-8 record vs my team.

This explains largely how unesid has successfully stayed with my team at the top of our division.

I am still holding a small lead (thanks for the advantages of having an extreme stadium), but I can tell you that I am praying all the gods I know for not facing unesid in the playoffs.


Unesid has indeed outcoached me.

[J-Pav]

I think this is another example of proving my point. [b:aab2c8410a]Unesid[/b:aab2c8410a] is basically even in net runs late in the season, while you are +100, yet you have identical records.

To say he's "outcoaching" you I think is being overly generous, given your level of knowledge and experience. He's basically been [i:aab2c8410a]luckier[/i:aab2c8410a] than you to this point in the season.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I disagree to a certain extent again.

There are games that are more important than others---as we say in the world of hockey, there are 2-points games, and then there are 4-points games---games within your division.

Being 13-8 vs the leading team in your division is much more important than being 13-8 vs some weirdo team in another division.

Furthermore, chances are quite high that he will be facing my team in the wild card. And his team is definitively well prepared to face mine.

This is why I say that he has overcoached me.

But you are right that his RS/RA ratio is not good-looking. On this aspect, you are right that he got some help along the way, which will help him being the wild-card if he doesn't catch me.

[cummings2]

Don't know if it's related or relevant but this year I've found it a bit tougher to match or exceed RS vs. R.Projected (if you use the simple RS=OBP*SLG*ABs)

I was looking through your Hoosier D team linked up above J. and noticed that it scored about 100 runs under what the stats indicate it should've scored. It seems like a fairly high number, ederific was about -44 RS

In thinking about your initial point I have been following some of the leagues I've finished and it seems like the teams with the better records are having very good production (RS is usually higher or right around R.Proj.). I know I am personally having a much harder time making my lineups/offenses effective, I don't know what is causing the difference but when it becomes a trend I have a hard time thinking I've had bad luck. You two guys know lineups and strat [i:bd73f65765]waaaay[/i:bd73f65765] better than me so maybe this doesn't apply to you, but for what it's worth and to illustrate my point:

using as example the league where Lucky and Unesid are going at it:

The 3 teams with the best records:

Excellence R.S. vs. R.Proj = +63
Poutine R.S vs. R.Proj.= +45
Hurricanes R.S vs. R. Proj. = +54

The three teams with the lowest winning percentage in that league all have negative differential R.S vs R.Pr. Even the Jokers who are just 1 run under in RS/RA Diff are -10 in R.S/R.Pr.

This would seem to be in re: to what Lucky was refering to up above about micro-managing and squeezing the most out of your team.

Now, I am not saying that offensive efficiency is [i:bd73f65765]the[/i:bd73f65765] determining factor for wins/losses but I am simply pointing out a trend I see early on in this set.

It's late and I don't know if any of this will make sense. :? Shouldn't write this late :wink:

[J-Pav]

[b:d689fe9042]Cummings2:[/b:d689fe9042]

Thanks for the post. My teams are [i:d689fe9042]all[/i:d689fe9042] suffering from this falling short of projections thing. The problem is, it appears that all of the teams in all of my leagues are succumbing to the same fate, except, as you point out, the teams scoring the most runs seem to somehow be avoiding it to an extent.

[i:d689fe9042]Skill or chance[/i:d689fe9042]?

I don't see the reason yet, but it appears to me that the slg portion of OPS seems to have gained in importance, while the moneyballers are being priced out. Welcome back, Earl Weaver.

Thanks again for the post, it definitely opened the door of insight a crack.

:D

[rgimbel]

I don't see the reason yet, but it appears to me that the slg portion of OPS seems to have gained in importance, while the moneyballers are being priced out. Welcome back, Earl Weaver.

that is what I have been noticing so far. I built a team with great defense great ob with solid sp and bullpen. got all the guys I wanted and thought I had built my first 100 win team. whopee! however I only have two power hitters on the team and other teams in the league that looked weak to me with terrrible def or other flaws are killing me with hrs as I am last in the league in hrs. so despite having a +50 run differential after 111 games I am a game under .500 I think in last years set a team built like this would of done a lot better.