Skill or Chance?

[geekor]

dead last in offense, dead last in SLG, #1 in pitching, who says it cant be done?

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=1147

Overachiving team: 3rd in offense, 1st in BA and OBP, 6th in SLG. Speed sure helps!

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=2001

My point is most of my teams (except the Coors ones) are light in SLG and they still get the job done. I think the whole micromanaging thing really lends itself to a point. In fact 2 teams I thought were good, and built so as I don't have to look at them, both are ending up below .500. I should have paid more attention! :?

[cummings2]

very interesting team (need for speed) g.

out of curiosity and out of this thread's topic: Do you remember your settings for bunting/stealing and H&R? The reason why I ask is because your H&R stats are a bit funky, a bit too high the number of attempts given your personel and a bit too low the avg. off H&R given your runners :? .

I think most attempts came from Ichiro and Ausmus...just curious really.

Congrats on the 100 wins 8)

[worrierking]

[quote:798a5a019e]I'm bringing this up because if there's no edge to be gained by analysis (Dubois, Thomas, etc.), then what would be the reason for playing? I can flip three coins every night for eight weeks for free.

So I guess I'm hoping that someone can show me where I'm wrong so I can find something analytical to pursue. In the meantime, I continue to be swept by newbs at a pace which to me suggests that this year it's all a 50/50 proposition.
[/quote:798a5a019e]

I honestly have not found this to be true in the four leagues I have attempted in '06. Could somebody with some time study this and determine if the standard deviation of wins has actually gone down in the '06 game as compared to '05, '03 etc? I would do it myself, but I am crunched for time and lazy :lol:

I would like to see evidence that this is actually happening before assigning a reason for it.

[cirills]

I see where you are coming from J-Pav but can you call Dubois by his real name please; [b:2723b0e7d8]DUBOSE[/b:2723b0e7d8]. :P

[geekor]

Cummings,

even on my speed teams, my settings NEVER go above conservative, usually they are extra conservative. HAL just likes to try the H&R, and I mark don't H&R only on the guys who are D and below. Maybe I should change that to C and below? :? Maybe I could have reached 300+ sb's if it was more aggressive?

[cummings2]

I think I wrote something about this in the Hit and Run thread in the strategy forum: C rated H&R hitters hitting behind (or 2 spots behind) runners with good lead jump, *running and 17 or higher steal with lead chances have a tendency to trigger the H&R when the runner upgrades them to B, even in conservative (oddly enough, especially in a conservative setting). However, with your team I think the normal setting in stealing and/or steal more settings would've increased the steal attempts and lower the H&R attempts, the reason for this is as I've said before I think HAL's "thinking" process is sequential and stealing, I believe is the first in line, so if you get HAL to trigger the SB attempt it'll never even get to considering bunt (2nd in line) or H&R (3rd in line).

But most importantly, your settings produced 100 wins 8) so obviously they worked pretty well, I'll have to learn from that team :D

[J-Pav]

[b:66b6fa8576]Sandy[/b:66b6fa8576]:

I knew it looked wrong for some reason. It's all these damn posts with [b:66b6fa8576]luckyman[/b:66b6fa8576]. He's got me speaking Canadian!

[b:66b6fa8576]Worrier[/b:66b6fa8576]:

Just look at the guys you know who can play and look at their 2006 records. I know you, [b:66b6fa8576]spicki[/b:66b6fa8576] and [b:66b6fa8576]PBTR[/b:66b6fa8576] are beating the trend right now, you especially so, but the vast majority of the better managers are playing just over .500 ball against unproven competition.

If the margin of error is +/- 8 games or so, it seems to me (through my own personal observation, not empirical study) that the vast majority of teams are operating in that 81-89 win area that is largely attributed to the vagaries of HAL.

If we're gonna get technical, we need [b:66b6fa8576]Penngray[/b:66b6fa8576] to dust off the stats book and look at variance and degrees of freedom and chi squares and all that stuff. (But if we add another Canadian to the conversation, I'm probably gonna be misspelling Dubose again!)

When you're playing .580 ball, it's easy to wonder what all the fuss is about. At one point, I was playing something like .620 ball myself, when the bottom fell out.

When it's all said and done, my first four teams of '06 have performed basically the same as in '05. The exception has been, I've rarely in the past seen teams win more games with wacky stats like .320 obp and sub .400 slg yet leading the league in runs scored.

Just my own personal rant of frustration I guess.

[rgimbel]

does this look like a sub .500 team to you it has one of the best run diff in the league excellent ba and obp and good era just not winning games and vs all rooks

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=2767

[J-Pav]

[b:7deb395ed3]Rgimbel[/b:7deb395ed3]:

If I knew what was wrong I'd be able to help, but basically you've got the same exact problem I'm already whining about. I would think that there's no way a team with that pitching and obp would be playing sub .500, but, the fact is, you are. You've got that projected runs bird flu thing where you're scoring only 90% of the runs your OPS would predict.

I [i:7deb395ed3]like[/i:7deb395ed3] a lot of your players, although I think you could have maybe added a bigger bat or two (hindsight, though).

I just don't know what the deal is. [b:7deb395ed3]geekor[/b:7deb395ed3]'s winning with stolen bases and hit and runs, but I'm missing playoffs while finishing top three in offense [i:7deb395ed3]and[/i:7deb395ed3] defense.

Hopefully somebody else will have the answer...

[rgimbel]

I definetly made a mistake in missing one more bat giambi ramirez are great but I am lacking a 3rd power guy with sacrificing hitting at 2nd and ss having no power at c doesnt help however there is a team doiing better than me with lousy pitching perlata at ss kent at 2nd griff in cf last year that team would be well under .500

maybe it is just that the rules have changed it isnt kansas anymore