How HAL decides who will win the playoffs!
http://www.nachshon.org.il/~itzs/Don%20Martin/html/heads.htm
Do you really want the best record in the league?
by Rob55 » Wed May 31, 2006 3:25 pm
[quote:1a2615fbfc]I read and re-read the thread carefully and found the first insult to be tossed out by Pub.....
Quote:
Now I know you gentlemen (I jump to that conclusion, by the way some of you have taken offense I can only gather you're not all adults)
I be curious to find what Pub thought childish leading up to his quote above..... [/quote:1a2615fbfc]
after beine gone all day yesterday I started reading this thread today... I have to agree with nev .... it was also the first insult I seen.
Reading it with an open mind I found I disagreed with a couple things Pub said, and agreed with a couple also....then I got to this post....
[quote:1a2615fbfc]Of all the folks heralded here, our hats are off to Mr. Petrosian, a true gentleman.[/quote:1a2615fbfc]
then i understood it was a comdey thread and this made MM's posts fit much better. I must be getting old it took me too long to grasp the theme.
Quote:
Now I know you gentlemen (I jump to that conclusion, by the way some of you have taken offense I can only gather you're not all adults)
I be curious to find what Pub thought childish leading up to his quote above..... [/quote:1a2615fbfc]
after beine gone all day yesterday I started reading this thread today... I have to agree with nev .... it was also the first insult I seen.
Reading it with an open mind I found I disagreed with a couple things Pub said, and agreed with a couple also....then I got to this post....
[quote:1a2615fbfc]Of all the folks heralded here, our hats are off to Mr. Petrosian, a true gentleman.[/quote:1a2615fbfc]
then i understood it was a comdey thread and this made MM's posts fit much better. I must be getting old it took me too long to grasp the theme.
- Rob55
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
Re: Do you really want the best record in the league?
by OdysseyTigger » Wed May 31, 2006 4:54 pm
"I know that sounds like a commercial but it's not." uh-huh
"I'm a writer in Princeton, NJ and I have a friend who plays this game online. My colleagues and I always hear him complain about how things don't add up, so we (a few math and stats professors and myself)" double uh-huh
"took a look at 13 seasons in which he's played. 13 is a very small number for a study but I think the results are interesting nonetheless.
Of the 13 seasons:
The team with the best record won the championship once
2nd best record: 5 times
3rd best record: 4 times
Wild Card won it: 3 times
The team with the best record made it to the World Series 6 times and as stated, won it one time. However, wild card team made it 7 times and won it 3. What is also of note, the 3 championships by the wild card team were against teams outside its own division. When the wild card team faced the winner of its own division it lost all 3 times. The other loss obviously came to a team outside its division.
There were 4 teams that won over 100 games (none in the same league, 4 separate leagues). None of these teams won a championship and only one made it to the series. "
This is supposedly the best a bunch of Princeton professors could do?!? Perhaps my son ought reconsider Princeton. :) Jeez, presenting the preceding and attaching statistical significance to it would have resulted in a failing grade in ANY Dartmouth undergraduate social science class 25 years ago. Forget about graduate schools. Can't imagine THAT much has changed. :)
"What is our point? You play a game that uses a game engine that seems to punish you for having the best record." You base this on what?
13 public leagues? Uh-huh. Please tell me how many times the wild card came from the west. Please also tell me how often the west was overall the strongest division? Please finally tell me how often the league winner came from the strongest division? What is the significance of the best record, anyway?
"We know it's only 13 leagues but if someone could provide us a link to more teams, please do, we'd love to take a look. " ...and this has nothing to do with marketing a competing game. uh-huh
"Now, we read your postings and see that many of you seem to think that the game is designed to mirror real baseball." ...and I always thought this was a 'what if' simulation
"You cannot compare this game you play to real baseball in any way whatsoever." You mean Babe Ruth can't REALLY hit 80 home runs against pitchers who were born after he died?
"The number one reason why you cannot is that there are more teams, more teams make the playoffs." ...ummm...well for a good percentage of our player pool, when they played only 2 teams made the playoffs. anyway, how exactly do you plan on "mirroring" reality when your player pool spans 100 years of Baseball !!? Whose reality are you trying to mirror?
"The second big reason is the human factor. The cards in your league don't play hurt, when they play, they play 100% with no nagging injuries, pitchers' arms don't get stiff in Sept and Oct, there are no rivalries and the mental game does not come into play" ...actually all of that is built into the cards...if it happened in real life and had an impact on the game, then it is reflected in the player statistics and the cards are based upon those statistics.
"My point?" You have one?
"Your game is static and the game engine has a major flaw." ...and that would be?
"Our suggestions? Ask them to take out the bug or device line that plays the playoffs differently." Something you haven't come close to demonstrating exists.
Here's a thought. Given the unbalanced nature of the schedule, one might resonably postulate that the team with the best record in the league likely comes from the weakest division and that the regular season record means nothing as far as who should win in the playoffs. Here's another thought. Given the likelyhood of Nev, Frank, Petro and others jumping in to the West to fill up a public league to burn off some of their excess credits, maybe they spend so much time pounding each other that some other division winner has the best record in the league, but is clearly not the best team in the league.
And Here's a third thought. Maybe a team with the two best SP's in the league (Pete and Babe for example) didn't spend a lot on the rest of its starting pitching choosing instead to put that money into its lineup. And maybe a team that does that doesn't have the best record in the league (not a surprise since most of their games will be started by inferior pitching). Come the playoffs, however, perhaps the percentages reverse since they will have the better pitcher going for them in the majority of games in any playoff series they are in. You are only as good as your next day's starting pitcher, right?
"Also, injuries should be graded." I believe they are.
"If the cut off is 600 plate appearances, why should a player with 599 plate appearances be able to get hurt for 15 games, just like a player with 100 plate appearances? That is a major flaw." I don't believe they can, certainly not with the same likelihood.
"Another huge flaw is that your game "locks on" injuries. We saw a catcher on one team reapeatedly get hurt, over and over and over. Something in the game engine is flawed. The odds of that happening are slim." Another failing grade in statistics. This has been examined exhaustively. While irritating when it happens, the evidence is overwhelming that it does not occur at a rate higher than that expected. Oh, and since when is a recurring injury 'non-realistic'. :)
"If you're interested, I have more thoughts on your game,in fact, I'm even going to try it once to get a better feel." not interested at all
"I'm a writer in Princeton, NJ and I have a friend who plays this game online. My colleagues and I always hear him complain about how things don't add up, so we (a few math and stats professors and myself)" double uh-huh
"took a look at 13 seasons in which he's played. 13 is a very small number for a study but I think the results are interesting nonetheless.
Of the 13 seasons:
The team with the best record won the championship once
2nd best record: 5 times
3rd best record: 4 times
Wild Card won it: 3 times
The team with the best record made it to the World Series 6 times and as stated, won it one time. However, wild card team made it 7 times and won it 3. What is also of note, the 3 championships by the wild card team were against teams outside its own division. When the wild card team faced the winner of its own division it lost all 3 times. The other loss obviously came to a team outside its division.
There were 4 teams that won over 100 games (none in the same league, 4 separate leagues). None of these teams won a championship and only one made it to the series. "
This is supposedly the best a bunch of Princeton professors could do?!? Perhaps my son ought reconsider Princeton. :) Jeez, presenting the preceding and attaching statistical significance to it would have resulted in a failing grade in ANY Dartmouth undergraduate social science class 25 years ago. Forget about graduate schools. Can't imagine THAT much has changed. :)
"What is our point? You play a game that uses a game engine that seems to punish you for having the best record." You base this on what?
13 public leagues? Uh-huh. Please tell me how many times the wild card came from the west. Please also tell me how often the west was overall the strongest division? Please finally tell me how often the league winner came from the strongest division? What is the significance of the best record, anyway?
"We know it's only 13 leagues but if someone could provide us a link to more teams, please do, we'd love to take a look. " ...and this has nothing to do with marketing a competing game. uh-huh
"Now, we read your postings and see that many of you seem to think that the game is designed to mirror real baseball." ...and I always thought this was a 'what if' simulation
"You cannot compare this game you play to real baseball in any way whatsoever." You mean Babe Ruth can't REALLY hit 80 home runs against pitchers who were born after he died?
"The number one reason why you cannot is that there are more teams, more teams make the playoffs." ...ummm...well for a good percentage of our player pool, when they played only 2 teams made the playoffs. anyway, how exactly do you plan on "mirroring" reality when your player pool spans 100 years of Baseball !!? Whose reality are you trying to mirror?
"The second big reason is the human factor. The cards in your league don't play hurt, when they play, they play 100% with no nagging injuries, pitchers' arms don't get stiff in Sept and Oct, there are no rivalries and the mental game does not come into play" ...actually all of that is built into the cards...if it happened in real life and had an impact on the game, then it is reflected in the player statistics and the cards are based upon those statistics.
"My point?" You have one?
"Your game is static and the game engine has a major flaw." ...and that would be?
"Our suggestions? Ask them to take out the bug or device line that plays the playoffs differently." Something you haven't come close to demonstrating exists.
Here's a thought. Given the unbalanced nature of the schedule, one might resonably postulate that the team with the best record in the league likely comes from the weakest division and that the regular season record means nothing as far as who should win in the playoffs. Here's another thought. Given the likelyhood of Nev, Frank, Petro and others jumping in to the West to fill up a public league to burn off some of their excess credits, maybe they spend so much time pounding each other that some other division winner has the best record in the league, but is clearly not the best team in the league.
And Here's a third thought. Maybe a team with the two best SP's in the league (Pete and Babe for example) didn't spend a lot on the rest of its starting pitching choosing instead to put that money into its lineup. And maybe a team that does that doesn't have the best record in the league (not a surprise since most of their games will be started by inferior pitching). Come the playoffs, however, perhaps the percentages reverse since they will have the better pitcher going for them in the majority of games in any playoff series they are in. You are only as good as your next day's starting pitcher, right?
"Also, injuries should be graded." I believe they are.
"If the cut off is 600 plate appearances, why should a player with 599 plate appearances be able to get hurt for 15 games, just like a player with 100 plate appearances? That is a major flaw." I don't believe they can, certainly not with the same likelihood.
"Another huge flaw is that your game "locks on" injuries. We saw a catcher on one team reapeatedly get hurt, over and over and over. Something in the game engine is flawed. The odds of that happening are slim." Another failing grade in statistics. This has been examined exhaustively. While irritating when it happens, the evidence is overwhelming that it does not occur at a rate higher than that expected. Oh, and since when is a recurring injury 'non-realistic'. :)
"If you're interested, I have more thoughts on your game,in fact, I'm even going to try it once to get a better feel." not interested at all
- OdysseyTigger
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
An etiquette tip that is NOT a commercial...
by Minoso Express » Wed May 31, 2006 5:52 pm
Your insights might be swallowed with a spoonful of sugar, Pub, were you to speak for yourself rather than fall back on the curiously fey use of the Royal We. And if there are 5 or 10 of you hunched over a collective keyboard while writing your posts, apologies and a salute with a shot of Maker's Mark are in order.
Welcome to Strat land, where I'm sure all we denizens look forward to watching your theories become practice.
Welcome to Strat land, where I'm sure all we denizens look forward to watching your theories become practice.
- Minoso Express
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Bunze0 » Wed May 31, 2006 7:08 pm
kinda agree, my 3 last playoff teams were 104 wins, 102 wins, and 100 wins. and yes these staffs had 3 fingers hughson pollett and such. so strong pitching. and i lost all 3 of the semi's to teams just barely over 500. and the worst of it is that they beat me in 4 games. so i no longer want the best record.
- Bunze0
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by MtheB » Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:42 am
Well there are some other variables.
My teams often end the season with quite a different roster than they started with, I often make changes at or near the 142 game freeze point, and one of the things I look at are teams I could be facing in the playoffs and the best way to address facing those teams, sometimes you even know at that point which team you will face first.
So the full season record in my case rarely reflects the capabilities of the team that goes to the playoffs, particularly in facing those teams that will be there.
Secondly, I manage much differently in the playoffs, in terms of lineups, settings and SP selections so what happened during the season does not necessarily indicate how the team will play in the playoffs.
Princeton? Well Brooks Shields went there,and they could use a man like Tom Cruise but I'm a "Far Above Cayugas waters" man.
My teams often end the season with quite a different roster than they started with, I often make changes at or near the 142 game freeze point, and one of the things I look at are teams I could be facing in the playoffs and the best way to address facing those teams, sometimes you even know at that point which team you will face first.
So the full season record in my case rarely reflects the capabilities of the team that goes to the playoffs, particularly in facing those teams that will be there.
Secondly, I manage much differently in the playoffs, in terms of lineups, settings and SP selections so what happened during the season does not necessarily indicate how the team will play in the playoffs.
Princeton? Well Brooks Shields went there,and they could use a man like Tom Cruise but I'm a "Far Above Cayugas waters" man.
- MtheB
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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