by J-Pav » Fri Jun 16, 2006 10:25 pm
Sorting through some of the posts here and in the [i:238a0ddd92]Skill or Chance?[/i:238a0ddd92] thread I started, there seems to be some confusion in the original argument.
To imply that the "Old Guard" benefits only from player mispricing is in my opinion, completely and totally inaccurate. [b:238a0ddd92]Jerlins[/b:238a0ddd92], do you really think that the Old Guard stars do not understand the diffence between speedy guys and power guys and ballpark advantages and divisional opponents' strengths and weaknesses???
The player mispricings from the days of yesteryear made the game fun because not everyone could have Barry Bonds or the highest priced pitchers. You could win with any wide variety of mixes (applied correctly, which equals [i:238a0ddd92]skill[/i:238a0ddd92]). Today, the player pool is virtually twelve deep at every position. There's less application of skill in the draft process, because for whoever you didn't get, a virtual clone awaits in the FA pool.
[u:238a0ddd92][b:238a0ddd92]Vanilla Is the New Spumoni[/b:238a0ddd92][/u:238a0ddd92]
It's way too early to throw in the towel; however, it is quite plain to see that the best Old Guard managers are playing just over .500 while many, many newbies are also playing at the exact same level. What more of a demonstration need there be exemplify diminished [i:238a0ddd92]skill[/i:238a0ddd92] and enhanced [i:238a0ddd92]chance[/i:238a0ddd92]?
Here's the way I see it (at this point early in the new card set). Perfect player pricing removes the ability to out-think your opponents by constructing specialized strategies. Now, it's still early, and maybe I'm a complete dunce, but studying many of the posted teams that have completed seasons leads me to conclude that the best route to a [b:238a0ddd92]CHAMPS[/b:238a0ddd92] team is complete and total balance across the board. The four CHAMPS teams that I've competed against so far all finished top six in vitually every category (of both offense and defense). They had roughly $30-32 million spent on pitching ($22/$10 split SP/RP).
To look at the teams, it appears like there's nothing special to see. Just a big scoop of plain vanilla. Take a look at the road records across the board in your leagues...I bet few top 45 wins on the road. Heck, most teams aren't winning 45 games at [i:238a0ddd92]home[/i:238a0ddd92], whether it be Petco, Safeco or Minute Maid or wherever.
Now, here comes the catch, and it's the long right tails. Right now, I'm guessing some folks are confusing their overachieving teams with skill, when in fact, they may have caught love from HAL in the form of a 95 win season that looks a lot like someone knows what they're doing, but is in fact an outlier series of coin flips. Only with the benefit of the seasons' hindsight can we know if the whole group of managers will cluster conveniently around .500.
I want to argue that the ability of fellow managers is the greatest determinant of wins on a manager this year, but if we're all playing .500 ball, then maybe that doesn't even matter all that much. Just one man's opinion, but SOM knowledge in the form of leagues finished (i.e., Old Guard) [i:238a0ddd92]should[/i:238a0ddd92] largely prevail over less leagues finished. It has nothing to do with "removing the old guard" or allowing new members in. This year (so far), I don't see that experience being rewarded with wins. I'm seeing a level playing field for managers of (virtually) any and all abilities.
That's why the game (appears) less skillful.
:wink: