by mfsleeze » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:53 pm
I think it's fairly simple. Your division opponents built their pitching staffs to shut down right handed hitting, and every one of their best hitters (Bonds, Helton, Thome) is a lefty. That's tough to counter with a Wrigley lineup. I'm currently playing my first Wrigley team in '05 but I played there several times in '04, so I've had some hits and misses.
The logic I use is to make my LH bats "count" so teams will hesitate to throw the Weavers and Beckets of the world (there are a lot of sub $2MM 5R+ guys who turn into studs against Wrigley teams). For example, my current Wrigley team only has 3 LH batters, but they are Helton, Damon and Willie Harris (I may have gone with 1 more but my division opponents don't have a lot of righty-killers). Compare that to your Giles, Patterson and Rollins.
Giles is the only one of the 3 I'd consider for Wrigley and even he's not great with his BPHRs being suboptimized. Patterson is a train wreck, and you may be stuck with Rollins because he's one of the best all around shortstops - but with just a quick look maybe qksilver would be willing to swap Guillen for him - I'd take the hit on defense to have a top of the lineup offensive guy to play vs RHP given your offensive struggles (and he'd probably be happy to have Rollins in Shea).
I would work hard to find a CF replacement for Patterson (even David Dejesus would be a huge upgrade with 42.8 OB chances vs RHP as opposed to 27.6 for Patterson - which is worse than Jay Payton who is a .93 possible platoon mate for Patterson (in other words, the guy you would platoon to play vs LHP is still better vs RHP than Patterson is). I know defense matters but preventing runs from scoring isn't as much your problem.
I'm also a huge Ruben Sierra fan this year, but only in the appropriate park, which yours isn't. So I'd have to give up some cash somewhere else to fix that problem. I'd suggest dumping Saenz to start - it's too much to pay for a platoon vs LHP when you won't see a very high % of LHP with a Wrigley team.
The other thing I'd think about doing is dumping Kolb - granted you've had bad luck with his numbers, but since you have Izzy you don't need another R1/C6 at that price. I'd rather have an equally priced R2 - you are getting too many innings out of the back end of your bullpen. I think I'd be fine with your starters, but I'd try the tweaks to your SS, CF, DH and RP I suggested and see what happens.
Good luck. I'm probably just feeling good because I've been very lucky so far and started out 8-1 with my Wrigley team.