Slowing The Running

[hechojazz]

I had Todd Pratt and his +2 throwing arm behind the plate in my first team (an '03 team). My OF arms were, from L to R, -3, 0 and -3. My 3 *SP starters had hold ratings of -2, -3 and +0. And I used a bunch of matchup guys with average hold ratings. Only two other teams in that league gave up more steals than I did - my opponent's stolen base percentage was .726.

So then I got my current '04 team, and resolved to do something about it. I signed I-Rod and that flashy -3 arm, and I've got an outfield, from L to R, with arms of -1, -3 and -5. My SPs aren't terribly good holding runners however (three +0s, a +5 and a +7). And I'm getting run silly on again. El Duque (+5) and Maddux (+7) are the 5th and 9th worst pitchers in the league in terms of giving up steals, so they're certainly not deriving any benefit from the defensive arms around them. Only one other team has given up more steals than me, and my opponents are stealing to the tune of .740 after 66 games! I'm WORSE!

Now I shouldn't complain too loudly, as I'm in first place in my division, and I made the playoffs with that first team, so perhaps stealing isn't such an ultimately terrible thing to have happen to you. But, is a pitching staff's hold rating the most important determining factor in limiting aggressive baserunning? What can or should be done to improve a team's record in this regard?

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=22621
:(

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

well the outfield arms have nothing to do with stealing.

even with irodss -3 maddox is a net 4 and el duq a net 2 so that means anyone with a 10 becomes a 14 stealer with maddox (14 being 70% success land) and a 12 becomes a 14 with el duq.

try to keep these guys as far away from each other as possible.

[hechojazz]

I didn't realize that is how one calculated it...and tonight I face a (thankfully) nondivisional opponent with three AA-rated stealers in the lineup - Freel, Abreu and Crawford, and three B-rated stealers - Jimenez, Vizquel and Counsell. At least Maddux isn't on the menu (but El Duque is). Methinks the basepaths will be burnin'...

[THOMASBACA]

I asked a similar question awhile back and LMBombers gave me some great advice that has worked well for me.

[quote:ac8a7fc90c]The best thing to do is have other SP with good hold ratings in your rotation. Opposing teams willl not risk an agressive base stealing setting if 2 out of the 3 SPs that they will be facing have good hold ratings to go along with a -1 catcher.
[/quote:ac8a7fc90c]

[visick]

I-Rod will help with his bat and -3 arm AND hurt you with his T-20 rating.

[hechojazz]

In a related vein, I've always been reluctant to try setting my manager settings to aggressive on taking extra bases...mostly because my teams have tended to feature a lot of plodders. But what analysis should be brought to bear on the question? Should it just be kept at normal to avoid having HAL try to get Raul Chavez with his 1-9 speed try to turn a single into a triple? I imagine an analysis of the opponent's OF arms is key here?

[visick]

You should try and experiment each night. Check your opponents OF arms and set the base running accordingly.

[hechojazz]

Thanks SoCal - is it only the OF arms that come into play when HAL's figuring out whether an effort to take an extra base succeeds or not? If an opponent has bad (or good) infield defense, does that factor in as well?

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

of arms and base runners running

works the same as stealing

j guillen's -4 arm with somebodies 1-17 running = 1-14 running which means a 70% chance of success taking the extra base or scoring from third on fly(LF)b?

this is where your baserunning (aggressive, conservative, normal) comes into play....

[JdEarly]

Yeah, what he said. HJ, you're thinking too much, making it much more complicated than it is.

An extra base is based on two main things: Speed of the baserunner, strength of the throwing arm on the individual with the ball. If a single is hit to Ichiro in right field and you try to score from second, he really cuts down your chances dramatically. If the same scenario were to happen, except the ball is hit to Juan Pierre in center, you might as well stop on the way home to go to the bathroom, because you'll have plenty of time.

You can look at outfielders individually... Vladimir Guerrero isn't gonna run over to leftfield to throw the ball for Barry Bonds, so there's no need adding them all up together to see what your chances are of taking the extra base. Personally, if a guy only has one serious arm in the outfield, I stay with my aggressive approach. Then again, I generally have a team full of guys who can move well around the bases, so that helps.

Man, I hope this made sense.