Moneyball Baseball Contract Thread

Here's another revision, based on the Rule 9.6 discussion, which was very interesting. (dang, you guys get to going in the discussions!)

Sedona Red Rockers offered the following contracts or will go to arbitration with these players

6+ years of service
1 Paul Goldschmidt 2yrs x $7,590,000
2 Tucker Barnhart 1yr x $1,340,000
3 Starling Marte 3yrs x $6,190,000
4 Jackie Bradley, Jr. 1yr x $4,440,000
5 Marcell Ozuna 1yr x $2,100,000
6 Xander Bogaerts 2yrs x $8,070,000
7 Alex Colome 2yrs x $4,170,000

5 years of service
8 Scott Oberg 1yr x $4,000,000 (Rule 9.6)
9 Tommy Pham 1yr x $4,610,000 (Rule 9.6)

3-4 years of service
10 Ji-Man Choi Arb1
11 Ian Happ Arb1
12 Yoan Moncada 4yrs x $6,680,000
13 Hunter Dozier Arb1
14 Johan Camargo 1yr x $2,000,000 (Rule 9.6)
15 Julio Urias 4yrs x $5,110,000
16 Jakob Junis 1yr x $2,000,000 (Rule 9.6)

1-2 years of service renewed for 2020
17 Ryan O'Hearn $700,000
18 Cavan Biggio $3,170,000
19 Carson Kelly $4,310,000
20 Danny Jansen $1,090,000
21 Adam Haseley $1,400,000
22 Josh Rojas $850,000
23 Austin Meadows $7,350,000
24 Kevin Newman $3,700,000
25 Willy Adames $2,550,000
26 Mike Soroka $5,570,000
27 Yonny Chirinos $4,560,000
28 Sandy Alcantara $3,560,000
29 Daniel Ponce De Leon $3,400,000
30 Jacob Waguespack $3,300,000
31 Kolby Allard $2,630,000
32 Elieser Hernandez $840,000
33 Shaun Anderson $600,000
34 Mitch Keller $600,000
35 Stefan Crichton $3,790,000
36 Colin Poche $3,260,000
37 Brett Martin $1,890,00
38 Caleb Ferguson $1,100,00

The following players will be free agents next season
39 Jose Quintana
40 Joakim Soria

Plus $3,000,000 for 6 prospects

Salary Cap Used 2020 = $121,530,000

Tell me what is wrong about this. you have a guy that right now has 3 years of service and his SOM card is 1.55 lets say.



so your options are:
1. sign him to an extension at top50%
2. take him to arb1 where you will either get him for $2 (win) or next year's SOM price (lose) whichever is higher.
3. this 9.6 which gives you him for $2 (so basically like a arb win)

then, the next year he is now a 4-year guy (and again on an expiring contract), your choices are:
1. sign him to an extension at top50%
2. take him to arb2 where you will either get him at $3 (win) or the next year's SOM price (lose) whichever is higher.
3. this 9.6 rule again, which gives you him for $3 (so again an arb win.....again assuming a good player)

then the next year he is now a 5-year guy (and again on an expiring contract), your choices are:
1. sign him to an extension at top25%
2. take him to arb3 where you will either get him at $4 (win) or next year's SOM price (lose) whichever is higher.
3. this 9.6 rule again, which gives you him for $4 (another result = to a win in arb)


Do I have anything wrong here? if not, then it does look like you've effectively avoided arb by continually "winning".

This makes sense to me, based on the discussion.

ok, here's my first attempt. would definitely appreciate any help/questions after I post this.

Scottsdale Sluggers Contracts for 2020
...

They look good Paul.

I guess it is our fault..the rule was there...but i stayed away from 5 yr players...the ones i did take were going to be let go.IT DID change the way i drafted right or wrong .i guess ill see

Paul, This rule is not about 5 year guys. it's about all guys. Right now we've been talking about how to use it for 3-4 year guys. yes it does have a nice 1-year out for 5 year guys, but it really is useful with the younger guys. Make sure you understand it as it will be of huge benefit for any players under 4 years (especially for 1-2 year guys down the road).

Ok, so after a few hours reading the chat discussion, here is my first go at it. If there is anything here that makes you point and laugh at my obvious misunderstanding of things, please let me know.

I have Story going to arbitration this year because I want to extend him for 5 years as a 5 year guy next season. I have Albies, who has 3 years of service, in arbitration because I would like to extend him for 4 years at the end of next season. I think this is ok, but please let me know if I have triggered something where I accidentally lose them at the end of the season.

6+ years of service
1 Freeman, Freddie 4 yrs X $9,740,000
2 Turner, Justin 2 yrs X $4,660,000
3 Jansen, Kenley 1 yr X $2,950,000
4 Grandal, Yasmani 2 yrs X $5,860,000
5 Ramirez, Jose 6 yrs x $5,000,000

5 years of service
6 Rodriguez, Eduardo 1 yr x $4,080,000 (Rule 9.6)

3-4 years of service
7 Benintendi, Andrew 4 yrs x $4,880,000 (top 50%)
8 Story, Trevor arb2
9 Boyd, Matthew 4 yrs x $5,110,000 (top 50%)
10 Mikolas, Miles 1 yr x $3,000,000 (Rule 9.6)
11 Albies, Ozzie arb1
12 Anderson, Brian 1 yr x $3,340,000 (Rule 9.6)
13 Jimenez, Joe 1 yr x $2,000,000 (Rule 9.6)

1-2 years of service
14 Voit, Luke 2,730,000
15 Hampson, Garrett 710,000
16 Verdugo, Alex 2,520,000
17 Kingery, Scott 2,500,000
18 Quinn, Roman 910,000
19 Tauchman, Mike 5,570,000
20 Calhoun, Willie 2,120,000
21 O'Neill, Tyler 770,000
22 Hudson, Dakota 3,110,000
23 Fried, Max 3,000,000
24 Pruitt, Austin 910,000
25 Hill, Tim 2,320,000
26 Buttrey, Ty 2,000,000
27 Castillo, Diego 1,860,000
28 James, Josh 1,570,000
29 Trivino, Lou 770,000
30 Long, Shed 2,350,000
31 Allen, Austin 600,000
32 Senzel, Nick 1,730,000
33 Reynolds, Bryan 5,440,000
34 Paddack, Chris 5,380,000
35 Urquidy, Jose 3,440,000

No longer in service
36 Cordero, Jimmy
37 Knapp, Andrew
38 Pivetta, Nick
39 Kendrick, Howie
40 Blevins, Jerry


Plus $3 million for 6 prospects = $110,930,000. Leaves me a lot of room but my 2 arbitration guys had combined salaries of over $20 million last year.

Baseball CFO looks good except you only spent $102,930,000 so you should have plenty of cap space for arbitration and free agent signings.

Dharmabums, Looks good except for the following:

Scott Oberg is $4,000,000 because of the arb 3 minimum salary requirement.
Ryan O'Hearn is $700,000 in his last pre-arb year.

You have spent $121,530,000 of your 2020 cap space with 3 arb cases and 2 free agent slots to fill.

Paul Long. Looks perfect. Starling and Tucker are $600,000 because 2020 is their second pre-arb year.

You have 2 arb cases to settle and 5 free agents to sign.

You have used $105,720,000 of your 2020 salary cap limit.

Dharmabums, Looks good except for the following:

Scott Oberg is $4,000,000 because of the arb 3 minimum salary requirement.
Ryan O'Hearn is $700,000 in his last pre-arb year.

You have spent $121,530,000 of your 2020 cap space with 3 arb cases and 2 free agent slots to fill.

OK.