Semper Gumby wrote:gbrookes wrote:Having the *SP starter means you can plan it as you go a little bit more, and maybe get a few more of the good matchups, and a couple fewer of the bad matchups.
In the ATG format, you're likely to get more bad matchups than good ones. Why wouldn't you just add a sub-$1M 5th starter?
I don't play much ATG, so I don't really know about that. According to my calculations, when I have a starter like Paulino starting against a team with 6 or more RH batters, that can be a severe disadvantage. More often, it's having a lefty pitcher starting against a team with heavily L balanced hitters, including platoon lefty killers.
I agree that having a low salary extra starter (I'll say a 6th starter) is another way to skin the cat - i.e. to get the best matchup. My problem with that alternative is that, according to my calcs, the cheap starter ("sub $1 million") is so much worse than the usual rotation starters (not just the guy your skipping, but even that bad matchup SP) that it just doesn't seem to make sense. I.e. the cure is often worse than the disease, according to my estimates. So that's why I like the *SP starter.
I have only just started to do this, but when I've been looking for alternatives for SP or RP at a certain $ level, I've done the run production calculations for a bunch of pitchers within say $1 million of salary. The results are usually so consistent (in terms of $/effectiveness) that you could plot them on a graph -effectiveness versus $ - and the inferred line would represent the data point dots very, very nicely. I can also explain the deviations, at least conceptually, in terms of other variables, like "hold", WP or balks, defense or pitcher's hitting strength. Not mathematically, but conceptually. In any case, the deviations are not significant.
My point is that when I do the math on cheap starters, I come to one consistent conclusion - that you just simply get what you pay for (not surprisingly). So the only way I would prefer cheap specialty starters is when I can start them against a very extreme batting lineup, with a very extreme balance or handedness advantage for the pitcher. But even then, I think the better solution, at a reasonable and efficient cost, is just to be able start a SP* starter in such a way as to get the better matchups.
I'll try to give you an example with my math, in the next week or so, to show my thinking with numbers.