NLD 33

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Corky

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Re: NLD 33

PostMon Aug 19, 2013 5:23 pm

Not sure about those ratings. I haven't had a chance to analyze them in depth yet but just looking at defense alone something seems off. Not sure how big A would have an advantage, let alone a big advantage over me defensively, especially with Grandal at catcher. Big M was listed as a distant second but on paper I appear to have a better D.

Not trying to beat my chest, I know I have weaknesses, but just pointing out that the ratings seem a little off, defensively anyway.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 33

PostWed Aug 21, 2013 1:12 am

Corky wrote:Not sure about those ratings. I haven't had a chance to analyze them in depth yet but just looking at defense alone something seems off. Not sure how big A would have an advantage, let alone a big advantage over me defensively, especially with Grandal at catcher. Big M was listed as a distant second but on paper I appear to have a better D.

Not trying to beat my chest, I know I have weaknesses, but just pointing out that the ratings seem a little off, defensively anyway.


Hi Corky,

D meant Pitching plus fielding.

Fielding is only fielding which is what I think yo'ure thinking about. Your *fielding* is right behind Big A. Looks like the primary difference is that he has a 1 at SS. Of course, I might have your platoons incorrect also. I have you playing Ramos v RHP (C) and Cruz v LHP (in RF). Those two drop your rating just enough. If you're playing Weiters both ways then you guys would be essentially tied.
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Stoney18

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Re: NLD 33

PostWed Aug 21, 2013 9:35 am

Joe,

How much do you factor hold ratings & catchers arm into your ratings?

It's an area that I haven't historically made a high priority but seeing how Molina's -4 arm with some good hold ratings have allowed only 7 SB's with 6 caught I might rethink that.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 33

PostWed Aug 21, 2013 10:12 pm

Stoney18 wrote:Joe,

How much do you factor hold ratings & catchers arm into your ratings?

It's an area that I haven't historically made a high priority but seeing how Molina's -4 arm with some good hold ratings have allowed only 7 SB's with 6 caught I might rethink that.


Well, hopefully the *right* amount! ;) I mean, they are included and we did our best to figure out how often you had a chance to steal (and a player who could steal) and how often you would get an out versus giving up an extra base. I think we got it right, or at least close enough that the arms are rated vis-a-vis other factors (i.e. hitting, range, running)

Same for hold.
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Corky

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Re: NLD 33

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 1:23 am

joethejet wrote:
Corky wrote:Not sure about those ratings. I haven't had a chance to analyze them in depth yet but just looking at defense alone something seems off. Not sure how big A would have an advantage, let alone a big advantage over me defensively, especially with Grandal at catcher. Big M was listed as a distant second but on paper I appear to have a better D.

Not trying to beat my chest, I know I have weaknesses, but just pointing out that the ratings seem a little off, defensively anyway.


Hi Corky,

D meant Pitching plus fielding.

Fielding is only fielding which is what I think yo'ure thinking about. Your *fielding* is right behind Big A. Looks like the primary difference is that he has a 1 at SS. Of course, I might have your platoons incorrect also. I have you playing Ramos v RHP (C) and Cruz v LHP (in RF). Those two drop your rating just enough. If you're playing Weiters both ways then you guys would be essentially tied.



Thanks for clearing that up Joe. I did misunderstand you the first time around.

And you do have my platoons correct.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 33

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 1:51 am

Corky,

Glad to clear things up.

Man we were on a good stretch there, but now we've lost 7 of 8 including getting swept by GB in our place. :shock:
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gbrookes

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Re: NLD 33

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 10:35 am

joethejet wrote:Corky,

Glad to clear things up.

Man we were on a good stretch there, but now we've lost 7 of 8 including getting swept by GB in our place. :shock:


The team that really has the Bombers' number so far is the Braumeisters, who are 8-1 against the Bombers so far. I think their lefty pitching has been a factor against the Bombers. Maybe they're just out drinking us! :) (Is a Braumeister the same as a brewmeister?). ;)
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 33

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 12:31 am

Well, a better night tonight, getting a sweep of Keyzick (sorry keyz) but weirdly lost W. Lopez for 7 games. Don't think I've seen an RP go down for that many games? Has anyone else?
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joethejet

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Re: NLD 33

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 1:44 am

Ratings at long last and even in time for you guys to start cutting guys before the 20% hit. Not sure that's advisable, but, hey, who am I to say?

Ratings are surprising close I think. $100 mil leagues can be very even and I think the ratings largely are. I also tried hard to reflect small differences as being small.

Code: Select all
Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
DurantJ   7749   4362   447   4809   2940   E
Stoney.   8227   4886   447   5333   2894   E
JeepDrv   8045   4915   273   5189   2856   C
JoeTJet   7786   4597   381   4977   2809   W
BigMahn   7506   4429   300   4729   2776   E
Corky..   7809   4941   177   5118   2691   C
Gbrooke   8328   5221   458   5679   2648   W
BigAlrc   7206   4444   142   4586   2619   W
Keyzick   7761   4880   368   5248   2513   C
nythawk   8076   4949   731   5679   2396   W
SemperG   7510   4683   441   5125   2386   E
ArrylTr   8083   5124   609   5733   2350   C


As I mentioned the East is very tough with 3 of the top five ratings. Stoney and DJ are effectively tied and Big M is within the margin of error, but woudln't be expected to top the other two.

Central Jeep has the best rating by a good distance. This is before his moves, but at first blush his moves may have actually helped his rating. Something that isn't that easy to do. Jeep, want to explain what you did and why? Corky & Keyz are relatively close with AT at the bottom by a good margin

West - JTJ has the best rating by a good distance over GB and Big A with Hawk definitively at the bottom of the division in terms of rating.

Code: Select all
Team Ov   Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif      
DurantJ   2940   3   4   -1   E   
Stoney.   2894   3   3   0   E   
JeepDrv   2856   4   6   -2   C   
JoeTJet   2809   4   4   0   W   
BigMahn   2776   5   5   0   E   
Corky..   2691   6   5   1   C   
Gbrooke   2648   6   4   2   W   
BigAlrc   2619   6   4   2   W   
Keyzick   2513   7   9   -2   C   
nythawk   2396   9   8   1   W   
SemperG   2386   9   8   1   E   
ArrylTr   2350   9   4   5   C   


AT is really the only anomaly. His rating is always hurt by his matchup pen which doesn't rate as well as it usually pitches. His performance is also somewhat explained by his extras and one run records.

As expected the East is tight with DJ and Stoney at the top. Semper ticketed for last. WC likely to come from this division.

In the Central AT is a suprise. Jeep has underperformed his rating, but hard to determine exactly why. I guess his pitching is a bit low. Not too surprising to see Corky close to Jeep. Would expect Jeep to make a move however and aT to fall off. Keyz might hang around the periphery, but doesn't look quite strong enough. Currently he's being killed by his one run record. Interesing to note that the entire Central currently has a negative run diff! :shock:

West - JTJ is at the top, but Big A is close. Ratings-wise Big A and GB are built for their respective park type so they need to minimize the downside while taking advantage of their parks. So Far Big has actually been better on the road (I'd be surprised if that keeps up) but only +2 at home. GB is closer to what I'd think but he's done better on the road than I would expect. However, I haven't analyzed which parks his road record has been compiled in, so hi might be doing well in the hitter's parks. I know he just swept me in a pitchers park so that helps his numbers in a somewhat small sample size. Ratings say that Hawk is in for a long season.

Code: Select all
Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif      
Gbrooke   8328   2   3   -1   W   
Stoney.   8227   3   3   0   E   
ArrylTr   8083   4   4   0   C   
nythawk   8076   5   6   -1   W   
JeepDrv   8045   6   5   1   C   
Corky..   7809   6   5   1   C   
JoeTJet   7786   7   7   0   W   
Keyzick   7761   8   7   1   C   
DurantJ   7749   9   5   4   E   
SemperG   7510   9   8   1   E   
BigMahn   7506   9   6   3   E   
BigAlrc   7206   11   6   5   W   


Big A is the only team that is far off it's numbers, but the runs scored are generally so close ,it's hard to really tell at this point. Things should start separting (or not) with more games played. Runs scored to rating are pretty much in lock-step


Code: Select all
Team PF   P+F  Rtg Run  Dif      
BigAlrc   4586   1   3   -2   W   
BigMahn   4729   2   4   -2   E   
DurantJ   4809   3   3   0   E   
JoeTJet   4977   5   2   3   W   
Corky..   5118   6   6   0   C   
SemperG   5125   6   5   1   E   
JeepDrv   5189   7   9   -2   C   
Keyzick   5248   7   7   0   C   
Stoney.   5333   8   5   3   E   
Gbrooke   5679   11   8   3   W   
nythawk   5679   11   12   -1   W   
ArrylTr   5733   12   8   4   C
 


As mentioned, AT's pitching is better than expected. There are a few other teams that are a little above or below and could end up being significant. E.g. it would be surprising to see JTJ have the fewest runs allowed. Stoney and GB are also borderline better than expected too.

I haven't done the fielding comparison or luck factor ratings yet. We'll see when I get time to do that.

Comments?
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keyzick

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Re: NLD 33

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 6:44 am

I'm just kinda shocked my offense is as bad as it is. Thought I was underperforming, but looks like they're doing as expected. Guess the 1-run games are my killer right now
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