NLD 31 - That New Site Smell

Speaking of 3B. Starter injured, backup injured, back up to back up injured. I'm suiting up tonight.


Your Current Injuries
Davis, Ike, through Game 67
Beltre, Adrian, through Game 68
Rodriguez, Sean, through Game 69
McDonald, John, through Game 71

Speaking of 3B. Starter injured, backup injured, back up to back up injured. I'm suiting up tonight.


Your Current Injuries
Davis, Ike, through Game 67
Beltre, Adrian, through Game 68
Rodriguez, Sean, through Game 69
McDonald, John, through Game 71

wow, must be contagious!

anyone have a comment on the ratings?

Wow, no comments on my long post? Anyone agree, disagree, have a thought at all???????

Joe,

Apologies for the delay. Your ratings analysis is always interesting to read, and I for one truly appreciate the effort that goes into it.

I generally disagree with the projections, as is well documented, and I still believe that it is nearly impossible to handicap a veterans league of this type. There are so many factors that the ratings can't account for (settings, HAL's decision making, etc.). It would be very interesting to see a season by season after the fact analysis of predicted vs. actual outcomes. I don't think the ratings projections would hold up well. I can't remember the last time one of my teams performed 'as it should'.

I predicted that this NLD would be close all season, and I stand by that still. I'm just happy to still be in it. If only I could get Kenley Jansen to cooperate with me, and not the opposition!

Big M, $100 mil leagues are particularly difficult because all the teams are good. You can really cover up your warts with platoons etc.

Fundamentally, there are areas where the ratings, especially team ratings, are going to have problems. One I mentioned is the ratio of RH to LH. Another is match up bullpens. *IF* Hal does a good job of using the bullpen in matchups then your pitching will almost certainly "over perform" the ratings. Also, if a team is REALLY good v LHP, they tend to underperform. Finally, good/bad fielding teams seem to have more variance than other types.

As for comparing to actual results, I think usually there are 10 teams that either are very close or have explainable anomalies. (e.g. one run games, Manny Burriss hitting .300 with 30 bombs, stuff like that).

But you're right, vet teams/leagues are hard *and* usually the ratings, for the most part are very close which makes it really hard to differeniate anyway.

Yes, the ratings as always are appreciated. My team seems to do better than the ratings usually indicate. I have a lot of match-up starters and my offensive team will perform better as I will substitute in and out on a daily basis better than an overall rating will give me.

Rergarding my team is set up well for HAL. I was just kidding around primarily because I won two 1-run games from you that night Joe.

That said, with the 100mil league making me able to do it, I was able to use a platoon of Upton/Hart and a platoon of Boesch/Trout, in which neither of the latter are starters. That was because of the inj. risk by Cargo and Holliday. And they have been injured a lot so Upton has played close to full time and Bosch/Trout has a lot of AB's as well. They can also pinch hit late in games which has been highly effective. So that's basically what I meant about my team being set up well for HAL. Nothing earth-shattering there.

Thanks again.

Jeep,

Your team was rated well in the last two NLDs. Not so much in this one, but you do have the best rating in your division.

When I get a chance I'll do the ballpark comparisons. That usually sheds a little light. I also want to do a "luck factor" comparison that uses the new data we have for rolls on card and fielding along with one runners and pythag. Just haven't gotten to it and, I have to say, the lack of response here from anyone other than you two hasn't given me a lot of motivation.

Does anyone know why Cole Hamels ist that bad????

Joe, I'm always interested in seeing your ratings.

My math skills aren't that strong (maybe that's why I switched from accounting to sales ) so I don't do much beyond looking at my division. I had started a long post yesterday comparing my team to DJ's since we are the two power teams in the division but after digging into the numbers the results, while different than what I anticipated, were what you would expect based on the teams and ballparks.

Briefly, I expected him to hit more HR's but also give up more comparing his pitching to mine. That works on the surface but once you build in the ballpark difference the fact that he's given up fewer HR's makes sense. I knew I should have grabbed GAP before him.

Does anyone know why Cole Hamels ist that bad????

Well, teams in your division hit LHP hard. And, LHB are unrealistically CRUSHING him to the tune of a .343 BA.

Clearly he's had some bad luck too as I woudln't necessarily expect RHB to be hitting .268 against him. In order for that to make sense, he'd have to be facing RHB's who average > .370 BA on their cards.

Short and long.... he shouldn't be *this* bad, but he's facing an uphill battle in that division.