NLD 31 - That New Site Smell

Always fun to meet people you've competed with online. Went to a Giants game with Qk a few years ago and met up with Jeep for a Mets/Yankees trip as well.

Nice to see the NLD still going strong! I miss this league! Lots of new names too.

Jet- Is that NLD records site not working? I tried several times to get in but I get error messages each time. I've tried with IE and firefox also.

Wow, Korkie! Who's next Sandlot?

Speaking of meeting up with competitors! There's a Korkie sighting! Didn' t know you were still playing. We'll have to ping you the next time we have an opening.

Yeah, the spreadsheet is still up, try this link. You may have to copy and paste
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/joethej ... istory.xls

Ok, with the new data I'm looking at some factors to determine how much luck a team is or isn't getting.

I have five categories:
bpsi differential - The percent different in getting or not getting singles compared to your competitors.
bphr differential - The percent different in getting or not getting home runscompared to your competitors.
one run games - self explanatory
Win Differentail - between actual and pythag
UE/Error - The ratio of errors to unearned runs.
Note on BP effects, this is the percentage, not the actual number. Theoretically you'll get as many rolls as a percentage as the other team you're playing.

If a team was way above or below you get a +2/-2. If you were within .75 of the STD Dev you got 0 (used just the Std Dev for win dif and UE)

Minus is "unlucky", positive is "lucky"

The stats below for BP and Unearned runs is from yesterday. The rest are from today.

I'm curious if you guys think this is a good measure or not.

Luck Factor

Code: Select all

Mgr   Wins   Si Dif   HR Dif   1Run   W Dif   UE/Error   Luck Fctr
JTJ....   53   -8%   -6%       -4       -7       90%       -7
Semper.   49   -2%   -14%       2       4       66%       -3
Gbrookes   56   1%    9%       -7       -4       61%       -3
Hawk...   50   -14%    4%       -5       -2       69%       -3
BigA...   48   3%    -9%       -7       2       48%       -2
Keyz...   49   4%    -16%       -3       -2       65%       -2
Stoney.   67   -1%   -19%       3       0       48%       -1
DJ.....   59   -2%    17%       -4       2       61%       1
Zim....   55   -2%   -1%       8       1       77%       1
AT.....   53   3%    -1%       4       -2       46%       2
Big M..   59   14%   -17%       4       2       56%       2
Jeep...   68   1%    2%       9       6       63%       3
Std Dev        5%      8%       4       4       62%   


A few things stand out.
There is no correlation between record and luck.
Big M gets a lot of bp single rolls v his competition. Must be playing Hawk a lot because Hawk can't get a roll.
In HRs, Stones, Semp, Big M and Keyz get few HRs rolls than their competitorss while GB and DJ are hot with the BPHR rolls
Jeep and zim are really good in one runners, GB, Big A not so much.
Pythag is bad for JTJ and really good for Jeep.

Unearned runs are killing JTJ as it's almost a one to one ratio of error to unearned runs. next closest is Zim (77%) with the average of 62%. AT has had good timing for his errors.

By these ratings JTJ is far and away the unluckiest while Jeep would be considered the luckiest, but not by a wide margin.

OK, tell me if this makes any sense.

Thanks,

Jet

Hmm. I'm gonna have to luck more closely at this tomorrow when I'm more awake, but it sounds a bit like a researcher manipulating the data to fit a hypothesis.

You know I like you Joe, but it must be frustrating how regularly your team under-performs your rating system in this league. At what point do you begin to question the ratings?

Interesting...but I think it needs tweaking:

UE/Error - you need to weight this to account for volume. ie, your 90% might only be from 9 out of 10 scoring, where my 65% might be from 65 out of 100 scoring.

1-run games - I don't necessarily agree this is a "luck" category...great relieving, matchups, etc.., but I do understand wanting to incude it. Maybe as a category it is weighted as less "luck relevant" as compared to some of the others? Actually I'd argue each of your categories could/should be weighted - I'd rather be lucky in HRs than 1Bs, for instance.

Anyway, good start!

Big M,

Perhaps it is. I would argue that all these categories are elements of luck, but I'm open to challenging the hypothesis. It's just an idea I had and, I didn't know that my team would rate *this* poorly in it. I knew we were giving up a LOT of crucial unearned runs, you can see it in the box score every night. But, hey, poke holes in the theory, that's one of the reasons I posted it. While it's true I have struggled in the NLD the last couple of years, I don't have the same problems in AD leagues nor do the people who use my ratings. It's probably more how I'm building the team, not the ratings themselves. And, for some of those teams, it has been a bit of bad luck.

Now, you could argue like Keyz did that singles are overweighted vis-a-vis HRs. I can't disagree with that. As for one run games, I'm not so sure. Having played the game enough FTF, the difference in one run games comes down, often, to *when* you get the big split, not if you get a split. Keyz, how would you propose weighting things?

Keyz, that's a good point, but I don't think you're going to find *that* big a difference in errors. I forgot to send my file home from work so I'll have to look tomorrow. In any case, I'm leading the league in errors so that's certainly not the case here. IN fact, that's a category I forgot to include, X-chart versus Fielding ratings. It's a little bit duplicated iwth the unearned runs, but it really measures whether your team has fielded as well as it should. Fielding ratings are pretty objective, especially in comparison with the overall ratings.

Thanks Jet...I had to fix the link manually but I finally got in. Great stuff! Thanks for keeping track.

And if you need me i'll be around, only playing ATG for now but I would make an exception for you guys. Unless of course the inaccuracies of this game drive me away again!

Corkie, will move you to the top of the list for when we have another opening.

Ok, based on Keyz' observations, I made HRs count 50% more than singles and added a column for F rating comparison to X chart rolls. This latter one may be a bit questionable because rating has to do with arms and excludes pitchers. The X chart data we get from SOM doesn't include arm impact and has pitchers. In the end, it gave AT and Jeep an extra "luck" point and didnt' impact anyone else's "scores".

Code: Select all

Mgr   Wins   Si Dif   HR Dif   1Run   W Dif   FRat/X   UE/Error   Luck Fctr
JTJ....   53   -8%       -6%       -4   -7       -2   90%           -7.5
Keyz...   49   4%       -16%       -3   -2       -1   65%           -3
BigA...   48   3%       -9%       -7   2         0   48%           -2.5
Semper.   49   -2%       -14%       2   4         2   66%           -2
Gbrookes   56   1%       9%       -7   -4         1   61%           -1.5
Stoney.   67   -1%       -19%       3   0         3   48%           -1
Big M..   59   14%       -17%       4   2         1   56%           -1
Zim....   55   -2%       -1%       8   1         -1   77%           0
Hawk...   50   -14%       4%       -5   -2         0   69%           0
DJ.....   59   -2%       17%       -4   2         1   61%           2   
AT.....   53   3%       -1%       4   -2         4   46%           3
Jeep...   68   1%       2%       9     6         5   63%           5
      5%   8%   4   4       62%   


So, a quick discussion of each category:

Single difference - the assumption is that if you're 5% above or below you get a point, if you're > 10 you get 2. I think this is relatively true

HR difference - I used 8% difference on this one because of the STD Dev. Perhaps would be better to use 5%, only JTJ fell into this gap and we don't want to give him any more negative luck points anyway I mulitplied this difference by 1.5 and gave 2 points for Keyz, Semp, Stones, Big M and DJ because they were so far from the STD dev.

I would suggest that getting a significant amount of few die rolls than your opponents is good/bad luck. Maybe you could argue taht the differences arent big enough to call it luck. Not sure

One Runners - This is a point of contention I know. I do know this however, a big difference in one runners will lead to a difference in ratings v performance. So, either the ratings can't predict good one run teams or there's luck involved.

Pythag - I think this is obvious. The only question is what is significant.

FRat/X - I addrssed this a bit above. Everyone's pretty close except for AT and Jeep. I will say, however, that the F Rats are pretty close overall so *maybe* this isn't that good an indicator.

Uearned runs per error - Clearly there are timing issues with errors to runs scored. As Keyz points out, the nubmer of errors will determine how big of an impact that the ratio has. Given that no team has *that* few errors I'm not sure it matters here. Interesting to note that the number of errors doesn't correlate to a higher percentage of runs allowed.

Looking at the nubmers, the only team that *really* stands out negatively is JTJ. They've had few singles, hrs, a negative one run diff and pythag, and far and away the most unearned runs/error. Interesting to note that their FRat/X isn't too far off, but still below the rating.

As for the "lucky" teams, Jeep has owned one runs games and his pythag is high. These two things typically go hand-in-hand so maybe that's double counting. Maybe his team is built to win one run games. In addition, the Frat/X is high. AT has done well in one run games and fielding for the next highest. I'm not sure if +/- 3 is enough to be "lucky" or "unlucky".

I haven't had a chance yet to compare to the ratings.

Any comments on this?