Corky wrote:Joe we'll have to agree to disagree I guess. Again I never said always. The first place teams combined record in 1 runners is 48-34 and the last place teams are 44-61, i'll leave it at that.
And jeez, I usually don't disagree with you this much but I guess thats what makes these boards and this league all that much more fun. You have only 3 guys with a left handed balance that cost a COMBINED total of $3.34 mil, I'm not sure you can expect more than your .242 BA and .307 OB% against LHP in a league like this with that.
Corky, it's all good. I'm not taking anything personal and hope you aren't either. As for the one runners, obviously there is a "correlation isn't causation" issue here (or something) teams with better records *will* sometimes have better records *because* of their one run record. A couple things I will leave you with. I've played the board game FTF for over 35 years and I've seen a LOT of one run games. I can tell you they often come down to the timing of your breaks, not whether you get a break, but whether it's a break that matters or not. Just this season I played a game where Zimmerman made three errors and gave up a hit on the X-Chart and I scored nary a run from those breaks. Timing is everything in a dice game. And, secondly, according to Bill James, one of the biggest indicators of a team in MLB that a team will have a worse record the next season is their record in one run games. The farther you get from .500 the more likely you will go down (or up) the next season. I'd say there's some luck there. In any case, whether it's luck or not, I can tell you for sure that variations from the ratings correlate very highly to one run records. Finally, isn't that sort of the whole logic behind the Pythag W/L ratings?
As for my O v LHP, you have to look at more than just salary.
Montero has a 415/387/534 slash (all divided by 108) v LHP,
Vicidedo is 450/367/699,
Nunez is 430/347/466
In an AD team that just finished I had Montero go .344/.359/.443 and Nunez .296/.346/.387
In NLD32 Nunez went .345/.406/.494 for DJ and Montero went .311/.352/.427 for Keyzick, Viciedo went .395/.465/.737 for AT.
in NLD33 Viciedo went .315/.372/.420 for Hawk
That's the platoon guys. Then you have Rios (card: 321/302/551) who has done almost nothing and certainly hasn't hit for power, and Pagan (Card: 300/253/384) who isn't going to be great, but I think is better than .177/.240/.208
Upon further review of Hill, he's actually pretty close to what you would expect.
It's been some hard times for those guys do you really think, given those cards, you'd expect the across the board suckage I've seen? Again, any one (or two) of those numbers could be expected, but for six guys to blow chunks is sort of unexpected most of the time.
Clearly we suck having lost another 8 in a row.
Admitedly losing Pierre for 15 has hurt our rating. McDonald is a big drop but this is ridiculous. Leaving 10 on base a game doesn't help either.