I sent to strat-o-matic a very detailed analysis of my research on baserunning, and on the statistical data published by strat on the team "misc" page.
I'll publish it here as well, for your interest (I'm assuming that, I guess!).
Joe (and anyone else), if you have any thoughts or critiques on this, I'm "all ears".
Here it is:
This is my follow-up analysis on what appears to be a systemic error on the Strat statistics for team baserunning, on the Misc page for the team. Alternatively, the discrepancy might reflect some randomized application of the max rules, or some other application of the max rules. Could strat-o-matic ("strat") please provide me with an explanation of the discrepancy - whether it is in the manner of the statistical data accumulation or reporting, or whether it is in the application of the game rules themselves, including the "max" rules - especially in regards to baserunning.
The first attachment is a printout of the team Misc page after 12 games, for the Montreal Expos, in the ATG8 league "NL Round Robin Series #9". My handwritten tallies are on the sheet, as well as on the attached excel spreadsheet. Please note that my calculation of the total opportunities for Andre Dawson after 12 games is 7 baserunning opportunities. The 7th tick mark is a little faint on the PDF file. The details of his 7 baserunning opportunities are itemized on the spreadsheet.
Strat's stats show 20 baserunning opportunities, 9 advances, and 2 outs, after 12 games, per the PDF file.
My calculations are 23 baserunning opportunities, 10 advances, and 2 outs, after 12 games.
The discrepancy is 3 opportunities, and 1 advance.
The discrepancies relate to 2 baserunning opportunities for Andre Dawson, and 1 for the pitcher, Steve Rogers. Dawson has one more advance, per my calculations, than does strat-o-matic's stats.
I would like strat-o-matic to review this for me, and let me know what the discrepancies might relate to. The one for the pitcher seems straightforward, as strat's stats appear to exclude the pitcher baserunning.
The 2 discrepancies relating to Andre Dawson are difficult to reconcile. One theory might be that, in some cases, or on a random basis, Strat-o-matic might be leaving a SINGLE** as it is in the normal rules, instead of applying the "Max" rules - again, perhaps on a random basis. That might explain the discrepancy in "advances", since Dawson scored once on a SINGLE** result. It's impossible for me to know whether or not this is the explanation. I would greatly appreciate STRAT confirming this for me, if I'm right. If I'm not right, I would really appreciate the actual explanation for the discrepancy.
Apart from the discrepancy in the advances for Dawson, there seems to be an extra other opportunity discrepancy for Dawson, as I showed 7 opportunities for Dawson, whereas the strat Misc page shows only 5 opportunities for Dawson. Again, I would really appreciate it if strat could explain this discrepancy. The details of Dawson's baserunning opportunities are on the excel spreadsheet, but I'll copy and paste them on to this email as well:
Expos
Running opportunities
Games 1 through 12
Game // Opportunitiess // Advances // Outs // Runner advancing // Notes
1 // 0 // 0 // 0
2 // 4 // 1 // 0 // Ramirez // includes a SINGLE** converted to an opp (batter took second on throw), and a ballpark single (Pitcher, Rogers didn't advance)
3 // 3 // 2 // 0 // Cabrera, Dawson // includes a SINGLE* converted to an opp, and a SINGLE** assumed to be converted, and a SINGLE ** known to be converted
4 // 2 // 1 // 0 // Deshields // includes a SINGLE** converted to an opp (runner held)
5 // 0 // 0 // 0
6 // 1 // 1 // 0 // Dawson
7 // 0 // 0 // 0
8 // 0 // 0 // 0
9 // 8 // 4 // 1 // Ramirez (3) Dawson // includes 2 ballpark singles, a SINGLE** converted (runner was thrown out), and a SINGLE* converted to an opp.
10 // 3 // 0 // 1 // includes a ballpark single, and a SINGLE** converted to an opp (runner thrown out)
11 // 2 // 1 // 0 //Dawson
12 // 0 // 0 // 0
Totals 23 // 10 // 2
per strat Team MISC 20 // 9 // 2
Discrepancy 3 // 1 // 0
The discrepancies on the TEAM MISC stats are - Rogers (pitcher) one opportunity, no advance; and Dawson, 2 opportunities , 1 advance
Dawson
game 3 - Dawson scored from second on a SINGLE** hit by Carter. Carter held at first
game 4 - Dawson held up on third base (one base advance), on a SINGLE** hit by Deshields.
game 6 - Dawson advanced from first to third base, on a SINGLE by Carter - no asterisks
game 9 - Dawson held up at second base, on a ballpark single by Guerrero
game 9 - Dawson scored from second base, on a SINGLE* by Guerrero
Game 10 - Dawson thrown out trying to score from second, on a SINGLE** by Cabrera
Game 11 - Dawson scores from first on a double hit by Guererro
Total - 7 opportunities, 4 advances , 1 out.
Per MISC page for strat - 5 opportunities, 3 advances, 1 out
discrepancy - 2 opportunities, 1 advance
The URL for the individual strat game pages are as follows:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/4http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/10http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/16http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/22http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/28http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/34http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/39http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/45http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/51http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/58http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/64http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/424625/70Thanks very much!