Corky wrote:Team A gets 10 hits, 0 errors, scores 4 runs.
Team B gets 9 hits, 1 error, scores 3 runs.
Better team won that night....by 1 run. Zero to do with luck. There are countless boxscores like that throughout the season.
That's a major flaw in your "luck" analysis IMO.
While I agree there are a great many of those, they clearly aren't distributed evenly to each team. I would bet if Semper takes a look at his sims, I bet you'll see a big variation in one run games and a correlation to record.
Also, w/o looking at the play-by-play, you don't know if there were lucky breaks in that one run game or whether your 1e8 SS made a critical error or whether the error had no impact at all.