Garcia's Blog Part II- Reverse Lineups/2012 Fielding Ratings
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:09 pmHey guys! Thanks for all the comments and suggestions on different topics for the blog this past week. I would like to gear this to what you want to see so the more suggestions you send in the better. I do want to let everyone know that generally Strat-O-Matic does not comment on future developments; however I can say that manager ratings are being worked on and should be the next big addition to the site. Now before we take a first look at the 2012 fielding ratings, I want to let everyone know about the newest feature, Reverse Lineups.
Many of you have been asking for more lineup options and the first additional lineup feature we have added is the “reverse” lineups. As you all know, pitchers are normally more effective when facing like-handed batters (e.g. lefties are usually better against lefties and righties are usually better against righty batters). Of course, this is not always the case. For various reasons, sometimes pitchers will have greater success against opposite handed batters than like-handed batters. Previously a manager could only choose one lineup vs. a LHP and one vs. a RHP. Now with “reverse” lineups, we have the ability to designate different lineups against these “reverse” pitchers than a standard pitcher, allowing us greater control and efficiency over our teams. You do not have to set these reverse lineups at all though if you do not want to. Unlike the Windows game, as long as you do not have anyone in the “reverse” lineup the game will default back to your standard lineup. So although this feature is recommended, it is not necessary.
Who is a “reverse” pitcher? For those new to Online Baseball, Strat-O-Matic rates each player for their balance, located right before a player’s salary on the “Your Team” page. The balance rating has two components, a number from 1 to 9 and a letter ("L," "R," or "E"). The letter indicates the types of opponents he is stronger against. An "L" indicates he is stronger against opposing lefties. An "R" indicates he is stronger against opposing righties. And an "E" indicates he is about even against lefties and righties. The number shown is on a 1 to 9 scale with a 1 being just a little bit stronger, and a 9 being tremendously stronger. A "reverse" pitcher is defined to be a pitcher who is rated 1-9 with the opposite letter grade than how they throw (a reverse LHP is a lefty with a balance of 1R-9R, and a reverse RHP is a righty with a balance of 1L-9L).
This feature can be crucial as opposing managers can no longer throw different types of same-handed starting pitchers in a series and you’re stuck with only one lineup against them. Since we have gotten some questions on balance ratings, I want to caution managers not to go overboard platooning players based on their balance ratings and that of opposing starters. Even though Player A may be listed as weaker against LHP while Player B is stronger against LHP, that does not mean Player B is necessarily better than Player A against LHP, just that they perform better against LHP than RHP. Using the 2011 set as an example, even though Prince Fielder has a 3R balance and Jesus Guzman 1L, Fielder still has better numbers vs. LHP overall. Although this feature is already displayed, it will not be implemented into games until tomorrow night. While most of you are excited to use them right away, some leagues may wish to not use these lineups at all if they are in the middle of a season already. Unfortunately we cannot allow this feature for some leagues and not others but we suggest having the commissioner of the league make a ruling or a league vote and notify the rest of the league whether or not to use the new lineup feature.
Now on to the 2012 Fielding Ratings! Here is a list of all the 1’s in the new set:
C: Matt Wieters, Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Casey Kotchman, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Adam LaRoche
2B: Freddy Galvis, Darwin Barney, Danny Espinosa, Dustin Pedroia, Gordon Beckham, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips
3B: Mike Moustakas, Adrian Beltre
SS: JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan, Elvis Andrus, Andrelton Simmons, Jimmy Rollins, Alcides Escobar, Brandon Crawford
LF: Mike Trout, Ben Revere, Gregor Blanco, Alex Gordon, Brett Gardner, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra
CF: Mike Trout, Ben Revere, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, Michael Bourn, Andrew McCutchen, Cameron Maybin, Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gomez
RF: Mike Trout, Ben Revere, JJ Reddick, Jason Heyward, Jay Bruce, Gregor Blanco, Torii Hunter
Two names immediately jump out at me from this list: Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa and Atlanta’s rookie shortstop Andrelton Simmons. In a weak offensive year from these two positions, all of them saw their value rise tremendously with 1’s. How much?
Looking first at Espinosa, let’s rank all second baseman over 200 PA’s by OPS in the 2012 season. OPS isn’t necessarily the best measurement of a player’s offensive skill but its quick and easy to do without having Strat’s ratings just yet. Espinosa ranks 19th among second baseman, at first glance not a great pickup for a 12-team Baseball Online league. Let’s look at the guys ahead of him now. The top 5 are pretty much set in stone at second base as they are so far ahead of the competition and all good defensive players, Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, and Chase Utley (although with Utley’s likely high injury rating and Cano’s extreme splits you will want a good backup/platoon for them). However the difference between #6 Neil Walker and #19 Danny Espinosa is only 51 points of OPS, enough where defense can change this order completely. Using Dean Carrano’s fielding graphs (an excellent article that provides a much better breakdown of offense vs. defense in Strat than I could do) and an estimate of Espinosa’s e-rating (at a rough glance it looks like an 8), we can see Espinosa saves 5 runs with his glove per 216 at-bats. Compare that that Neil Walker, a 2 and e-rating projection of 13, and Espinosa’s glove alone is worth 4.6 runs more than Walker per 216 at-bats. Over a full season that comes out to 13.8 runs, a significant margin between the two. Another player that ranks higher than Espinosa on the OPS ranking is Daniel Murphy, who’s .735 OPS ranks 12th among second baseman. Projecting his e-rating to 18 gives him 7.4 runs allowed per 216 PA. Over a full season the difference between Espinosa and Murphy defensively is a whopping 36.9 runs! The defense more than makes up for any advantage Murphy has offensively. Factoring defense into the equation, Espinosa now ranks between 7th and 10th among second baseman and since most gamers do not weigh defense (especially middle infield defense) as highly as they should, Espinosa becomes a great addition to the lower end of your draft card.
Moving over to shortstop, rookie Andrelton Simmons took the league by storm when he was called up. A rookie with only 182 plate appearances receiving a 1 is certainly a special player and to be a shortstop and do this is tremendous. He even hit well enough to be ranked the 12th best shortstop by OPS, already making him an asset in an Online Baseball League. Looking at the guys ahead of him we see Ben Zobrist (primarily a second baseman) and Hanley Ramirez (primarily third base) which could move Simmons up to 10th. Simmons’ defense projects out to a 1e10 giving him 5.9 runs saved according to Dean Carrano’s article. Since he holds the highest OPS of any shortstop that was given a 1, he improves over everybody that hit better than he did. In fact, Simmons’ defense vaults him to the #3 spot on my list of shortstops, just behind Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond. Simmons goes from an average to below average option at shortstop to an elite player at the position just by receiving the unprecedented 1.
A few disappointments did come in also. Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis dropped all the from a 1 in 2011 to a 3 in centerfield and rightfield, respectively. Kemp now falls from a truly elite centerfielder to only an average one in a 12-team league. Markakis now falls out of my top-12 in rightfield with his fielding rating and becomes merely usable while he could have been a solid option if he had maintained the 1 or only fell to a 2.
Unfortunately that’s all the time I have for this week as it was a rather lengthy post. If anyone has any ideas for next week, please send them in to onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com. Already have some good suggestions I can use but keep them coming!
Happy Holidays!
-John
Many of you have been asking for more lineup options and the first additional lineup feature we have added is the “reverse” lineups. As you all know, pitchers are normally more effective when facing like-handed batters (e.g. lefties are usually better against lefties and righties are usually better against righty batters). Of course, this is not always the case. For various reasons, sometimes pitchers will have greater success against opposite handed batters than like-handed batters. Previously a manager could only choose one lineup vs. a LHP and one vs. a RHP. Now with “reverse” lineups, we have the ability to designate different lineups against these “reverse” pitchers than a standard pitcher, allowing us greater control and efficiency over our teams. You do not have to set these reverse lineups at all though if you do not want to. Unlike the Windows game, as long as you do not have anyone in the “reverse” lineup the game will default back to your standard lineup. So although this feature is recommended, it is not necessary.
Who is a “reverse” pitcher? For those new to Online Baseball, Strat-O-Matic rates each player for their balance, located right before a player’s salary on the “Your Team” page. The balance rating has two components, a number from 1 to 9 and a letter ("L," "R," or "E"). The letter indicates the types of opponents he is stronger against. An "L" indicates he is stronger against opposing lefties. An "R" indicates he is stronger against opposing righties. And an "E" indicates he is about even against lefties and righties. The number shown is on a 1 to 9 scale with a 1 being just a little bit stronger, and a 9 being tremendously stronger. A "reverse" pitcher is defined to be a pitcher who is rated 1-9 with the opposite letter grade than how they throw (a reverse LHP is a lefty with a balance of 1R-9R, and a reverse RHP is a righty with a balance of 1L-9L).
This feature can be crucial as opposing managers can no longer throw different types of same-handed starting pitchers in a series and you’re stuck with only one lineup against them. Since we have gotten some questions on balance ratings, I want to caution managers not to go overboard platooning players based on their balance ratings and that of opposing starters. Even though Player A may be listed as weaker against LHP while Player B is stronger against LHP, that does not mean Player B is necessarily better than Player A against LHP, just that they perform better against LHP than RHP. Using the 2011 set as an example, even though Prince Fielder has a 3R balance and Jesus Guzman 1L, Fielder still has better numbers vs. LHP overall. Although this feature is already displayed, it will not be implemented into games until tomorrow night. While most of you are excited to use them right away, some leagues may wish to not use these lineups at all if they are in the middle of a season already. Unfortunately we cannot allow this feature for some leagues and not others but we suggest having the commissioner of the league make a ruling or a league vote and notify the rest of the league whether or not to use the new lineup feature.
Now on to the 2012 Fielding Ratings! Here is a list of all the 1’s in the new set:
C: Matt Wieters, Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Casey Kotchman, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Adam LaRoche
2B: Freddy Galvis, Darwin Barney, Danny Espinosa, Dustin Pedroia, Gordon Beckham, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips
3B: Mike Moustakas, Adrian Beltre
SS: JJ Hardy, Brendan Ryan, Elvis Andrus, Andrelton Simmons, Jimmy Rollins, Alcides Escobar, Brandon Crawford
LF: Mike Trout, Ben Revere, Gregor Blanco, Alex Gordon, Brett Gardner, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra
CF: Mike Trout, Ben Revere, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos, Michael Bourn, Andrew McCutchen, Cameron Maybin, Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Gomez
RF: Mike Trout, Ben Revere, JJ Reddick, Jason Heyward, Jay Bruce, Gregor Blanco, Torii Hunter
Two names immediately jump out at me from this list: Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa and Atlanta’s rookie shortstop Andrelton Simmons. In a weak offensive year from these two positions, all of them saw their value rise tremendously with 1’s. How much?
Looking first at Espinosa, let’s rank all second baseman over 200 PA’s by OPS in the 2012 season. OPS isn’t necessarily the best measurement of a player’s offensive skill but its quick and easy to do without having Strat’s ratings just yet. Espinosa ranks 19th among second baseman, at first glance not a great pickup for a 12-team Baseball Online league. Let’s look at the guys ahead of him now. The top 5 are pretty much set in stone at second base as they are so far ahead of the competition and all good defensive players, Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, and Chase Utley (although with Utley’s likely high injury rating and Cano’s extreme splits you will want a good backup/platoon for them). However the difference between #6 Neil Walker and #19 Danny Espinosa is only 51 points of OPS, enough where defense can change this order completely. Using Dean Carrano’s fielding graphs (an excellent article that provides a much better breakdown of offense vs. defense in Strat than I could do) and an estimate of Espinosa’s e-rating (at a rough glance it looks like an 8), we can see Espinosa saves 5 runs with his glove per 216 at-bats. Compare that that Neil Walker, a 2 and e-rating projection of 13, and Espinosa’s glove alone is worth 4.6 runs more than Walker per 216 at-bats. Over a full season that comes out to 13.8 runs, a significant margin between the two. Another player that ranks higher than Espinosa on the OPS ranking is Daniel Murphy, who’s .735 OPS ranks 12th among second baseman. Projecting his e-rating to 18 gives him 7.4 runs allowed per 216 PA. Over a full season the difference between Espinosa and Murphy defensively is a whopping 36.9 runs! The defense more than makes up for any advantage Murphy has offensively. Factoring defense into the equation, Espinosa now ranks between 7th and 10th among second baseman and since most gamers do not weigh defense (especially middle infield defense) as highly as they should, Espinosa becomes a great addition to the lower end of your draft card.
Moving over to shortstop, rookie Andrelton Simmons took the league by storm when he was called up. A rookie with only 182 plate appearances receiving a 1 is certainly a special player and to be a shortstop and do this is tremendous. He even hit well enough to be ranked the 12th best shortstop by OPS, already making him an asset in an Online Baseball League. Looking at the guys ahead of him we see Ben Zobrist (primarily a second baseman) and Hanley Ramirez (primarily third base) which could move Simmons up to 10th. Simmons’ defense projects out to a 1e10 giving him 5.9 runs saved according to Dean Carrano’s article. Since he holds the highest OPS of any shortstop that was given a 1, he improves over everybody that hit better than he did. In fact, Simmons’ defense vaults him to the #3 spot on my list of shortstops, just behind Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond. Simmons goes from an average to below average option at shortstop to an elite player at the position just by receiving the unprecedented 1.
A few disappointments did come in also. Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis dropped all the from a 1 in 2011 to a 3 in centerfield and rightfield, respectively. Kemp now falls from a truly elite centerfielder to only an average one in a 12-team league. Markakis now falls out of my top-12 in rightfield with his fielding rating and becomes merely usable while he could have been a solid option if he had maintained the 1 or only fell to a 2.
Unfortunately that’s all the time I have for this week as it was a rather lengthy post. If anyone has any ideas for next week, please send them in to onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com. Already have some good suggestions I can use but keep them coming!
Happy Holidays!
-John