Garcia's Blog Part XI- 2012 Third Baseman Revisited
Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:06 pmHey guys,
As I said previously I wanted to come back to third baseman in the new set and now that the cards have been released this seems like a great time to do it. Here's a link to my initial post on this and below are my initial top 13 rankings:
1) Miguel Cabrera
2) Adrian Beltre
3) Chase Headley
4) David Wright
5) Aramis Ramirez
6) Evan Longoria
7)Todd Frazier
8) Ryan Zimmerman
9) David Freese
10) Chipper Jones
11) Will Middlebrooks
12) Jeff Keppinger
13) Matt Carpenter
If you remember last week, I was using the fielding preview and error rating projections to use Dean Carrano's excellent Offense vs. Defense article (located here) to evaluate a players total defensive contribution. Offense was just a rough estimate based on OPS as this was before the ratings guides were available. Now with the actual game out, we are able to project each players total numbers based on that article above.
Let's use Cabrera as the first example. Using the numbers right off his card and assuming a neutral ballpark, we get 20.2 estimated runs produced vs. a left-handed pitcher and 30.1 vs. a right-handed pitcher. Now a batter obviously does not face left-handed pitchers and right-handed pitchers equally. On average a batter will face a RHP about 3 times as often as a LHP. Adjusting for this and for a full-season of at-bats, here is a new ranking based on offense alone with the accompanying estimated runs produced.
As you can see, offensively Cabrera is way out in front with Beltre leading the rest of the group. One thing to consider here while looking at this is Matt Carpenter. Although his overall numbers show him as the number 8 third baseman in this group, looking at his splits clearly shows that he should only be used as a platoon vs RHP. His numbers vs righties would put him fourth on the list but his lefties numbers drag way down to 8th. If you end up with Carpenter on your team, be sure to grab a third baseman to start vs LHP.
Again, this was only for offense. Adding in the defensive numbers change this list dramatically.
Surprisingly (or maybe not so much), Adrian Beltre's defensive advantage over Miguel Cabrera catapults him above Cabrera for the most valuable third baseman by this system. I had predicted these two as the runaway numbers 1 and 2 (although I had Cabrera ahead). Another surprise to me is how close Headley is to Cabrera. Playing in a neutral park will certainly elevate his offensive value and a 2e10 at third base is excellent. Although we do not have prices yet for these players, if Cabrera is much more expensive than Headley is, Headley probably is the better buy as their value is very close.
Wright, Ramirez, and Longoria slot in a 4, 5, and 6 respectively as I had expected. Although Longoria's 5 injury rating will hurt he still ranks out ahead of the next group. Todd Frazier leads that next tier with Matt Carpenter not far behind(*- see above note on platooning him). Directly behind them are David Freese, Will Middlebrooks, Jeff Keppinger, and Ryan Zimmerman falling in at number 12. The retiring Chipper Jones is not going out quite on top. He still has a usable card but it's definitely not one that you should be aiming for. Jones falls last of the players that were ranked.
Hope this helps some of you who are planning their draft for the 2012 season or at least gets you to take a look at Dean's article. I use these formulas every year for my league and although winning in the playoffs has been a problem, I get there regularly anyway.
The 2012 season should be out in the next two weeks, when we get a date I will pass it on to you guys. A quick reminder, sign-ups have begun for the 2013 Barnstormers ATG Tournament! To sign-up you can e-mail the commissioner of the Tournament at moose@sirmightymoose.com or by following this link. The tournament should begin in mid-to-late March so make sure to sign up before then! As always if anyone has blog ideas for me, please send them in to onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com!
-John
As I said previously I wanted to come back to third baseman in the new set and now that the cards have been released this seems like a great time to do it. Here's a link to my initial post on this and below are my initial top 13 rankings:
1) Miguel Cabrera
2) Adrian Beltre
3) Chase Headley
4) David Wright
5) Aramis Ramirez
6) Evan Longoria
7)Todd Frazier
8) Ryan Zimmerman
9) David Freese
10) Chipper Jones
11) Will Middlebrooks
12) Jeff Keppinger
13) Matt Carpenter
If you remember last week, I was using the fielding preview and error rating projections to use Dean Carrano's excellent Offense vs. Defense article (located here) to evaluate a players total defensive contribution. Offense was just a rough estimate based on OPS as this was before the ratings guides were available. Now with the actual game out, we are able to project each players total numbers based on that article above.
Let's use Cabrera as the first example. Using the numbers right off his card and assuming a neutral ballpark, we get 20.2 estimated runs produced vs. a left-handed pitcher and 30.1 vs. a right-handed pitcher. Now a batter obviously does not face left-handed pitchers and right-handed pitchers equally. On average a batter will face a RHP about 3 times as often as a LHP. Adjusting for this and for a full-season of at-bats, here is a new ranking based on offense alone with the accompanying estimated runs produced.
- Code: Select all
RK NAME ERP vs LHP ERP vs RHP Total Offensive ERP
1 Miguel Cabrera 20.2 30.1 82.9
2 Adrian Beltre 15.0 27.5 73.1
3 Chase Headley 18.2 24.7 69.2
4 Evan Longoria 31.3 19.6 67.6
5 Aramis Ramirez 28.0 19.1 64.0
6 David Freese 21.7 20.2 61.7
7 David Wright 21.3 20.2 61.4
8 Matt Carpenter 12.6 22.6 60.3
9 Todd Frazier 19.3 18.6 56.3
10 Will Middlebrooks 23.4 16.6 54.9
11 Chipper Jones 16.2 18.7 54.2
12 Jeff Keppinger 22.6 15.7 52.3
13 Ryan Zimmerman 17.1 16.7 50.4
As you can see, offensively Cabrera is way out in front with Beltre leading the rest of the group. One thing to consider here while looking at this is Matt Carpenter. Although his overall numbers show him as the number 8 third baseman in this group, looking at his splits clearly shows that he should only be used as a platoon vs RHP. His numbers vs righties would put him fourth on the list but his lefties numbers drag way down to 8th. If you end up with Carpenter on your team, be sure to grab a third baseman to start vs LHP.
Again, this was only for offense. Adding in the defensive numbers change this list dramatically.
- Code: Select all
RK NAME ERP vs LHP ERP vs RHP Total ERP
1 Adrian Beltre 16.4 28.9 77.3
2 Miguel Cabrera 15.7 25.6 69.4
3 Chase Headley 17.8 24.3 68.0
4 David Wright 20.7 19.6 59.6
5 Aramis Ramirez 26.2 17.3 58.6
6 Evan Longoria 27.1 15.4 55.0
7 Todd Frazier 16.7 16.0 48.5
8 Matt Carpenter 8.4 18.4 47.7
9 David Freese 15.5 14.0 43.1
10 Will Middlebrooks 19.1 12.3 42.0
11 Jeff Keppinger 19.1 12.2 41.8
12 Ryan Zimmerman 14.2 13.8 41.7
13 Chipper Jones 10.9 13.4 38.3
Surprisingly (or maybe not so much), Adrian Beltre's defensive advantage over Miguel Cabrera catapults him above Cabrera for the most valuable third baseman by this system. I had predicted these two as the runaway numbers 1 and 2 (although I had Cabrera ahead). Another surprise to me is how close Headley is to Cabrera. Playing in a neutral park will certainly elevate his offensive value and a 2e10 at third base is excellent. Although we do not have prices yet for these players, if Cabrera is much more expensive than Headley is, Headley probably is the better buy as their value is very close.
Wright, Ramirez, and Longoria slot in a 4, 5, and 6 respectively as I had expected. Although Longoria's 5 injury rating will hurt he still ranks out ahead of the next group. Todd Frazier leads that next tier with Matt Carpenter not far behind(*- see above note on platooning him). Directly behind them are David Freese, Will Middlebrooks, Jeff Keppinger, and Ryan Zimmerman falling in at number 12. The retiring Chipper Jones is not going out quite on top. He still has a usable card but it's definitely not one that you should be aiming for. Jones falls last of the players that were ranked.
Hope this helps some of you who are planning their draft for the 2012 season or at least gets you to take a look at Dean's article. I use these formulas every year for my league and although winning in the playoffs has been a problem, I get there regularly anyway.
The 2012 season should be out in the next two weeks, when we get a date I will pass it on to you guys. A quick reminder, sign-ups have begun for the 2013 Barnstormers ATG Tournament! To sign-up you can e-mail the commissioner of the Tournament at moose@sirmightymoose.com or by following this link. The tournament should begin in mid-to-late March so make sure to sign up before then! As always if anyone has blog ideas for me, please send them in to onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com!
-John